http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

RKH are being touted by some here as a one way bet, and there's no denying from the info available it looks extremely compelling, and I hope for all those who hold, the promoters of RKH are right, and it really does come good, nonetheless a degree of caution wouldn't go amiss imo. No offence meant to anyone here, just my view.
2517

Hi George,

As one who is very optimistic re RKH but also as one who always retains some caution, I totally agree.

RKH doing a number of "one to one" sessions with institutions et al today (reported in the FT).

Amongst other things likely the start of the serious issue about moving off of AIM and on to the FTSE 250.

Expect a few broker notes out today and tomorrow perhaps........

CGT only up 10%. Should be lots of people coming back into RKH in early July, those who sold out early June and who have waited the 31 days for CGT purposes. Should be a stream of people coming back in all through July.


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/aeabaa74-7d00-11df-8845-00144feabdc0,s01=1.html

'Rockhopper Exploration dropped 2.8 per cent to 274p as retail investors booked profits before todays emergency budget, at which the chancellor will detail his plans to raise capital gains tax.

Separately, Canaccord Genuity is to host a lunch and a series of one-to-one meetings for Rockhopper today with more than a dozen institutions.'

Proselenes what is the CGT if you held a shares more than 2 years is it still 18% or has that changed?

Markymar,

Just in case Proselenes is busy, it's not changed, still 18% unless you are a higher rate tax payer then it is 28%. No taper ex cetera.

Greek

Cheers G

Cheers G

Thats correct greekman.

Well, certainly we have seen the last of the CGT sellers today, locking in their profits before the changes take effect, as they did at midnight.

So, given we have had people taking profits and locking them in since early June ahead of the potential CGT changes, the 31 day wait period locks them out until early July, so plenty of buyers should be streaming back from early July to 23rd July.

Oriel Note out yesterday.


Rockhopper Exploration Sea Lion ready to roar?

Sea Lion discoverya recap

Last month, Rockhopper announced that the Sea Lion well was the first oil discovery drilled in the North Falklands. Whilst previous wells had oil shows, this was the first to encounter net pay in good quality reservoir sands, a key risk pre-drill, in two separate intervals (Main Fan and Lower Fan). Current reserve estimates are 242mmb in the mid-range case (P50), ahead of pre-drill estimates, with the potential for significant upside above this number based on the mapped structure of the discovery. Oil quality also appears good at 26-29o API with further analysis ongoing.

Forward activityflow test and appraisal

Rockhopper is planning to flow test the discovery well which will take place either directly before or after the Ernest prospect is drilled. As well as providing the market with the comfort of a reassuring flow-rate (reservoir data and oil quality suggests an encouraging result is expected) the pressure readings should help de-risk the low case (P90) reserve estimates. The discovery well is located in the south-east of the field and we would expect at least two wells will be needed to fully appraise the structure. We assume one will be drilled down-dip to the west, to test the lateral continuity of the reservoir sands, and one will be drilled to the north, testing the P10 upside of both the Main and Lower fans. It is not clear when these will be drilled but there are spare slots under the current rig contract and we believe there is potential to extend beyond the current 10 slot programme (firm plus options).

Valuationshares discounting our low-case reserve estimates

We have prepared an indicative valuation for Sea Lion based on conservative
development scenarios. Under the 242mmb mid-range case and using our long-run
oil price of US$85/bbl, our NAV for the discovery is 761p/sh (before taking account of dilution from any further equity raisings). The recently updated CPR assigned a low-case of 57mmb to the discovery, however if we use a more realistic recovery factor based on a development using water injection, this would rise to 115mmb. Our valuation using this reserve case would be 260p/sh, close to the current share price.

Other explorationErnest, Rachel and beyond

After FOGL complete the Toroa well, Rockhopper will drill the Ernest prospect (100% interest) located in the southern half of the North Falklands basin. Whilst Ernest is well defined on seismic and benefits from positive AVO and EM anomalies, it is in a virgin part of the basin, uncorrelated with the Sea Lion discovery and hence remains a high-risk prospect. If successful it would be worth c.490p/sh and open up a significant new play. Desire then plans to drill the Rachel prospect (where Rockhopper holds a 7.5% interest), an analogous target to Sea Lion on the eastern margin of the North Falklands basin worth 60p/sh if successful. Rockhopper is currently reviewing its prospect inventory in light of the positive Sea Lion result and we would expect an update on potential future drilling candidates in due course.

Summaryjust getting started

The success of Sea Lion has significantly upgraded the exploration potential of the North Falklands as well as being material in its own right. Whilst appraisal is at an early stage and not risk free, results to date suggest that Sea Lion is potentially commercial with the shares only discounting our adjusted low-reserve case. The shares have unsurprisingly performed strongly on the back of the Sea Lion results, but with further upside from both this and exploration to come, especially on a now
proven play, we reiterate our BUY recommendation.

No comments from the rampers now is there.. People who know what they are talking about have spoken !!! 2.60/a bloody share......

sometimeslucky Under the 242mmb mid-range case and using our long-run oil price of US$85/bbl, our NAV for the discovery is 761p/sh

RKH have already said reserve estimates are 242mmb with upside just so the derampers understand!!!

What caused the late dip? Or just MM's shenanigans?

Harry you may well be right mm's seem to be walking the sp down.

anyone holding at an average 125sh should be ok. cant see this coming back much below 130sh.if at all. i could be wrong. just my opinion.
regards and good luck and expect the unexpected.
jkd

"cant see this coming back much below 130sh" & I thought my 240/220p target was optomistic!!! You can't be serious jkd???
(Just watching a Wimbledon game which is 56 - 56 in the last set. Not sure if your 130p is harder to believe or not!)

HC
56-56?you just answered your own question.given those question marks i am supposing it was a question and not a statement.expect the unexpected. it only takes just one unexpected wrong un to wipe out many many other hard earned good un's.
just be careful is my message to all.look at that day of open 269 close 244, not bad, just minus 15. BUT the low of the day was 130. all stop losses surely must have got hit that day,and HARD, and a lot if not most of PI's must have got stuffed good and proper.
it could happen again. might not. those that survived might think themselves clever for doing so. i would contest that. but thats about money management and another story.
regards and good luck. i really want this to zoom for everyone.
as always, just my opinion.
jkd
edit that should be 269 open minus 244 close = minus 25 not 15

I was watching the footie, missed that dip - wonder if what a deliberate stop loss rattler....... LOL .... if I had not been watching footie I would have got some more RKH.

And for those that are unable to read and comprehend (like perhaps sometimeslucky) the Oriel note is higher than my figures.

I have a 720p a share target for Sea Lion after flow test - theirs is 761p. (based on the mid case 242M barrels) (with lots of upside to come).

My figure for Ernest is similar to theirs for a mid case find.

My target for 900p end of year remains..... :)

pro whats his face says he missed the dip........he has another chance today as it continues to slide.,.

.37% is hardly a slide.