http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

HC
56-56?you just answered your own question.given those question marks i am supposing it was a question and not a statement.expect the unexpected. it only takes just one unexpected wrong un to wipe out many many other hard earned good un's.
just be careful is my message to all.look at that day of open 269 close 244, not bad, just minus 15. BUT the low of the day was 130. all stop losses surely must have got hit that day,and HARD, and a lot if not most of PI's must have got stuffed good and proper.
it could happen again. might not. those that survived might think themselves clever for doing so. i would contest that. but thats about money management and another story.
regards and good luck. i really want this to zoom for everyone.
as always, just my opinion.
jkd
edit that should be 269 open minus 244 close = minus 25 not 15

I was watching the footie, missed that dip - wonder if what a deliberate stop loss rattler....... LOL .... if I had not been watching footie I would have got some more RKH.

And for those that are unable to read and comprehend (like perhaps sometimeslucky) the Oriel note is higher than my figures.

I have a 720p a share target for Sea Lion after flow test - theirs is 761p. (based on the mid case 242M barrels) (with lots of upside to come).

My figure for Ernest is similar to theirs for a mid case find.

My target for 900p end of year remains..... :)

pro whats his face says he missed the dip........he has another chance today as it continues to slide.,.

.37% is hardly a slide.

get your glasses on greek thats the spread %.,.

0.74% down on quite small volume. 240p here we come! ;o)

Coincidence. Yes that was also the spread. The sp was also down .37% at the time of my post.

Moving the right way again now.......

FOGL results soon then RKH have rig again and either flow test Sea Lion or drill Ernest.

On level 2 a lot more Buy orders to sell orders and looks like the price could climb easy today.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/southamerica/argentina/7856595/No-talks-on-Falklands-David-Cameron-tells-Argentina.html

No talks on Falklands, David Cameron tells Argentina

Onwards and upwards again today at RKH:-)

Yes, RKH looking to break 300p again.

My target end of year with Sea Lion flow test and Ernest discovery is 900p (based on P50 finds) with upside if target sizes are upgraded.

yes going back to where it belongs till news....my target 275p

holding up quite well all things considered (288)

"Rockhopper Exploration, the North Falkland Basin oil and gas exploration company, is pleased to provide results following analysis of wireline MDT samples obtained from the recent Sea Lion 14/10-2 oil discovery well in the North Falkland Basin.

Samples analysed under reservoir conditions in a specialist laboratory are confirmed as medium grade crude with the following characteristics:

* API confirmed as 26.4 - 29.2 degrees

* Low Viscosity of 6.5 - 8.5 centipoises at reservoir pressure

* Gas Oil Ratio of 261 - 272 standard cubic feet per stock tank barrel

* A typical Wax Content of 18.4% - 20.8% wt*

* Formation Value Factor (FVF) of 1.16

* Low sulphur of around 0.2% weight

Sam Moody, Managing Director, commented:
"These positive results, when combined with our knowledge of reservoir quality from logging data, give us further comfort that a flow test of the Sea Lion well will confirm a mobile crude oil.

The wax content is typical for a lacustrine sourced crude oil and significantly lower than many other producing oilfields worldwide. Furthermore the viscosity, gas oil ratio, FVF and sulphur are all better than we anticipated."

Oriel Brokers note

Rockhopper Exploration (RKH, BUY, 284p) - Oil Sample Analysis
Rockhopper issued an update on the oil sample analysis this morning which appears to support our valuation assumptions.

The API has been confirmed at 26.4-29.2 API with a low viscosity of 6.5-8.5 centipoise which should support recovery factors of 30% assuming the reservoir is not significantly compartmentalised (which doesn't appear to be an issue based on the available seismic data).

The wax content is moderately high at 18.4-20.8% which may increase costs and heated tankers may be need to export the oil. However we have already assumed a 15% discount to Brent and capex of US$12/boe in our valuation which appear to adequately reflect this issue. Based on the P50 reserves estimate of 242mb we estimate Sea Lion is worth 761p/sh (or 260p/sh for the P10 OIIP estimate with a 30% recovery).

Rockhopper stands out as cheap in our valuation grid based just on the Sea Lion discovery and given the clear follow on potential in the acreage we retain our BUY recommendation.

The news just gets better and better at RKH:-)

Fox Davies brokers note

Rockhopper Exploration (LON:RKH) (BUY, 4.00) (RKH, 282.25p, ▼ (3.26%)) announced results of the analysis of wireline MDT samples obtained from the recent Sea Lion 14/10-2 oil discovery well in the North Falkland Basin. Samples analysed under reservoir conditions in a specialist laboratory are confirmed as medium grade crude of 26.4-29.2o API, a low viscosity of 6.5-8.5 centipoises at reservoir pressure, a Gas Oil ratio of 261-272 cubic feet per stock tank barrel and a low sulphur content of 0.2% weight.

Regardless of the FOGL result next week I do think that the pre-flow test buying will see RKH over 400p within 2 weeks from now and from there up to over 650p on a good flow test and then up higher again should the flow test data reveal a further upgrade in the size figures once all the data has been crunched and put into the modeling.

All the hot money is now out of RKH, all of those wanting to sell ahead of any FOGL failure have now sold and a whole swathe of money is waiting to buy back in to RKH.


My valuation targets are :

Cash - Ignore it.
Fox / Stephens - ignore them for now (to allow for dilution effect)
Other plays - ignore them for now (to counter the dilution effect)

Sea Lion pre flow test - 260p to 450p
Sea Lion post successful flow test - 650p to 750p ( based on P50 242M barrels)
Sea Lion upgraded to the P50 after flow test - add 2.9p per extra 1M barrels

Ernest successful drill - 130p to 200p
Ernest post flow test - 350p to 430p (based on a 150M barrel find)
Ernest upgraded from 150M - add 2.89p per extra 1M barrels

Sea Lion and Ernest coming in and flow testing ok would put a value based on P50 figures of over 1100p per share - allowing for some dilution going into the FTSE 250 move off of AIM, fingers crossed my 900p per share target for year end will be surpassed.


Exciting times ahead !

exciting for sure, but then so i am told, are rollercoasters