I hold these stock.

DYOH (do your own homework.)

To-day there was a slight drop in price, but number of analysts are giving favourable reports.

What triggered my interest was better than expected results and if I am right looking at charts it shows an inverted head and shoulders. Hopefully a good sign. Also the current rate of Share price growth is about 90% pa over the last 5weeks. This is unlikely to continue indefinitely but SP could hit 850p over next few weeks.

To-day at close, there were some large buys of about 5million shares. 40million approx.

Another trigger for me was the following which should increase earnings.

Aviva to form JV in Taiwan with First FinancialAFX
LONDON (Thomson Financial) - Aviva PLC, the UK's largest insurer, said it has entered into a joint venture with First Financial Holding Co Ltd to sell insurance and pension products in Taiwan. The joint venture company, First-Aviva, will distribute long-term savings and pension products in Taiwan through an exclusive agreement with First Financial's flagship unit, First Commercial Bank. Aviva, which will have a 49 pct stake in the joint venture, added that the initial paid up capital of the new company will be 34 mln stg.First Commercial Bank is Taiwan's second largest bank network, with five mln retail customers, it added.TFN.newsdesk@thomson.comkkb/faj/slm




Date: Wednesday 25 Apr 2007
LONDON (ShareCast) - If the message gets home that Aviva will not bid for Prudential, the stock should rebound strongly, especially if Aviva can sustain its current impressive performance. There is still work to be done but, at 794.5p, the shares are a strong buy says the Independent.
Date: Tuesday 24 Apr 2007
LONDON (ShareCast) - Aviva stood out among the risers on a tough day for blue chip stocks. The life insurer posted an upbeat first quarter statement with brokers pleased with the numbers.



DYOH

VIVA ANNOUNCES SALE OF RUSSIAN LIFE AND PENSIONS OPERATIONS

Aviva plc ("Aviva") today announces the sale of Aviva Russia to Blagosostoyanie, a non-state pension fund in Russia, for a consideration of €35 million. The consideration is payable in cash and represents a modest premium to IFRS book value. This transaction is consistent with Aviva's strategy to narrow the Group's focus to businesses and markets where Aviva has leadership positions.

The transaction, which is subject to the approval of the Federal Antimonopoly Service of the Russian Federation, is expected to complete in the first half of 2013.

Mark Wilson, Chief Executive Officer of Aviva plc, said:
"We are pleased to have agreed the sale of our life and pensions operations in Russia to Blagosostoyanie. This transaction builds on the progress we have made to narrow Aviva's focus."

-ends-

Nobody seems to believes these targets.


4 Mar JP Morgan... 443.00 Overweight
1 Mar Citigroup 479.00 Buy
28 Feb Credit Suisse 455.00 Outperform
28 Feb Citigroup 479.00 Buy
22 Feb Credit Suisse 455.00 Outperform
21 Feb RBC Capital... 350.00 Sector Performer

FY part 1 of 5

Good progress on disposals and turnaround programme

£3,050m loss principally arising from the sale of the US as previously disclosed

Economic capital surplus increased by £3.5bn to £7.1bn1

2012 total dividend 19p from 26p. Final dividend 9p from 16p

Priorities: cashflow and debt reduction

Twenty seven per cent reduction in divi so a yield now of just over five % , will there be a RSA type reaction , its the sensible course of action , but no doubt market will have a knee jerk reaction.

Yep - short AV, long SL would have been a good bet yesterday!

So we need 2.70 for 7%, unlikely, but would be a decent buy then.

Oh dear!

Good job I decided to invest in ADM instead.

Although my assumption is they will give 19 as the base from which to raise.

They may well reduce next year's interim as well.

Oriel Securities Hold 315.45 359.80 400.00 400.00 Retains

Panmure Gordon Hold 315.45 359.80 425.00 340.00 Downgrades

Barclays comment on the AV. divi cut:
"Aviva’s new CEO, Mark Wilson has taken the bold, but appropriate decision to cut the dividend, to enable the company, and management, sufficient breathing room to rebuild the business and invest where necessary. Our underweight thesis, Aviva plc: Dividend at risk - downgrade to UW, has been predicated on a number of key issues, namely earnings pressure (from asset sales, deleveraging and macro pressures) and internal liquidity concerns. Today’s actions appear to address these concerns head on, resolving the sustainability of the dividend and accepting the leverage and cashflow problems. The stock is not cheap, and we view our 302p price target (a 5% yield on the rebased yield) as fair value. Progress on expense savings will be the next key debating point, and execution on this will be a major measure of the new management’s success.
Taking the right decisions for the long term: However, these decisions come at the expense of short term earnings and dividends. Priority number 1 was to de-risk the company and increase solvency. This was the correct thing to do, was executed (172% solvency). However, it comes at the expense of earnings. And priority 2 was to reduce leverage, again, the right thing to do, but at the expense of earnings. Both of these actions have been positive for credit but negative for equity for now. The company has rebased the dividend at a more appropriate level for the franchise going forward.
Addressing its liquidity issue: Aviva plc: De-levering increases dividend pressure, The company is addressing the liquidity issues, and paying down leverage is the key priority. The company will pay down both internal and external leverage. They are replacing the internal leverage (its loan from the UK General Insurance business) with an interest-bearing intercompany loan, and will pay down £600m of the loan over the next three years.
Operating earnings in line with our estimates: but these (like RSA and the wider insurance sector) face continued pressure from low interest rates and the weak macro economy.
No new expense savings: Aviva has indicated that it intends to achieve in excess of its £400m expense savings target and we expect more detailed communication around this at a future date. It states it has realised £275m to date."

Just added here @316.7.

I'm in at 314.4. Looking forward to a reasonable divi even at the reduced value. Long term for me I think.

If you squint, RSI & Momentum ticking up.

Exane BNP Paribas Outperform 322.15 322.20 414.00 379.00 Upgrades

Credit Suisse Outperform 322.15 322.20 455.00 435.00 Reiterates

Barclys note on AV. today:
"Aviva’s new CEO, Mark Wilson, has taken the brave but appropriate decision to cut the dividend to a sustainable level, allowing the company to deal with its leverage and cash flow problems. However, these issues will take time to resolve, and we expect no meaningful increase in the dividend until 2017 when the external debt leverage should decrease from its current 50% towards its 40% target. Furthermore, Aviva is not cheap, trading on 1.4x book value (ex goodwill), with an estimated dividend yield in 2013 of 4.6%. We reiterate our UW recommendation.
Focus on de-levering, no meaningful increase in the dividend until 2017 – Aviva’s first priority was to improve economic solvency, achieved with the sale of the US division. However, this contributed to a £3.3bn loss in 2012, which drove external debt leverage to 50%. Aviva’s priority is to reduce the leverage to “below 40%”, which we believe will take until 2017, and we expect no meaningful increases in the dividend until then. Aviva has finally formalised its £5.8bn internal loan between UK GI and group, which, when coupled with the £7.0bn of external debt, increases total leverage to 91% of capital.
Focus on cash, not earnings, but takes time – Aviva is copying the Legal & General playbook and focusing on cash, not earnings. We believe this is the right thing do to, and has worked very well for L&G. However, it took Nigel Wilson at L&G three years to achieve this, and L&G didn’t start with the leverage issue that Aviva is facing. L&G’s earnings initially declined as it focused on cash, but the quality of earnings increased – a similar experience to Aviva would lead to further earnings erosion.
Aviva is not cheap – It is trading on 8.2x 2013E P/E, 1.4x book value (ex GW), with a yield of 4.6%. Its Big 5 peers (AXA, Allianz, Generali, Zurich) trade on 1.1x book value, with similar ROEs. We view the yield as unattractive, and highlight L&G’s 5.3% yield in 2013 as being both safer and with faster growth than Aviva’s. Aviva’s FY12 underlying earnings were in line with our estimates, and we are making no material changes to our below-consensus estimates. However, due to the 36% decline in book value (10% below our estimate), our PT declines 4% to 289p, 11% downside from current levels."

Harry - have you got a link to that site please?

Regret that's it for the moment. Will post more (or link) when I can track it down.

Bought some on the big drop,should rise toward ex divi date.

It had better.

I hold too many of them.