.

The Sunday Times is only interested in Falklands bad news -DES dusters - BOR gas and not oil.

Its quite bullish to see nothing in the ST - might mean good news coming.

One other scenario that i haven’t seen mentioned is the possibility that if this current drill is successful to the point where further investigation is warranted then they could use the second drilling campaign to appraise this well and not move to a new target.

Exactly what I said earlier jbc...it's a possibility....if it's a success then a bit like Rockhopper, better to appraise what you have and leave Scotia till later...this is only if it is a major success....I find it bizarre that there are no rumours or little...might be a duster...who knows ?...

P - another load of finest verdure from you! ...... there have been a number of long articles in ST over the last couple of years relating to FI potential and also, unless I am much mistaken, as to the commerciality or otherwise of Sealion

Yes, if they did have something positive to go on from the exploration drill, it would make more sense to me to appraise this well as soon as possible rather than use the opportunity to do another exploratory well. If they did another exploratory well they would then be in a position of limbo until 2014 when they could feasibly conduct the appraisals.

However if they are able to appraise and get positive results from the second drill it unlocks everything. The genie would be out of the bottle and the whole game in the Falkland’s would be ramped up much more quickly.

Maybe all the shipping movement in the area is a tell that they plan to stay around in this area to conduct an appraisal.




appraisal

The phase of petroleum operations that immediately follows successful exploratory drilling. During appraisal, delineation wells might be drilled to determine the size of the oil or gas field and how to develop it most efficiently.

Jbc i totaly agree with you if this drill comes in.

How do you know about the shipping activity ?.....the trouble is that it could be a duster and they are already preparing to move the rig...hope not...

its all total speculation and conjecture, but they could be determining best location for appraisal well, or bringing supplies needed for appraisal drill, or they could be simply doing nothing and taking in the scenery.

jbc - Noble will want some drilling data with which to calibrate the extensive 3D planned in early 2013 (two studies).

I cannot therefore see any appraisal now, Noble will want drilling logs from Scotia to integrate into the new 3D next year - and so will push for Scotia next regardless of Loligo.

In return they could farm into the Tertiary of course - but for a nice price too post discovery of oil.

Surely an appraisal well gives far more info / data than an exploration well. If they have good results in this exploratory and get good results from an appraisal, then it gives the green light on the whole area.

Popped across the road for a looksee....and apart from the usual slanging match going on, they or most of them expect a duster...one or two think the 30m rumour might come in...but most because of no leaks expect bad news....well RKH gave no indication before Sealion....so nobody knows anything.....really frustrating...

jbc -Noble are not farmed into the Loligo Tertiary targets.

Noble will want drill data from Scotia, a mid-Cretaceous target they are farmed into.

It would put FOGL into a stunning position. They can pay BOR for their drill data in the South - and use that data with their new 3D coming in 2013.

They will have new 3D over all the Eastern basin as well in 2013.

FOGL, after drilling Scotia, will have drill data logs for Loligo, for Scotia and can get the others from BOR by some kind of agreement for Darwin and Stebbing.

End result is they have drill data on all play types - and then all new 3D over the whole license area's.

They (well Noble) should be able to then come up with a damn good list of top priority targets for 2014 when Noble are the operator.

Could do with an extra drilling slot this year...no possibility of delaying the rig arrival in Norway I presume, later this year ?...

I frankly think that they are going to be mighty unlucky not to encounter any hydrocarbons at all with five targets....now whether any of these targets are commercial or not depends on a bit of luck.....so it's all to play for.....some news should start to emerge now from one source or another....

The fact of the matter is that if it were a duster it wouldn't take this long for them to release an RNS!!!!!!!!!

Why?

Wishful thinking, just like all the other thousands of posts of many sites trying to rationalise every single aspect of this drill. But the fact of the matter is that until tomorrow (if they release a RNS) PIs have no idea what the news will be.

But whatever, the outcome, good luck, better to see the gamblers winning as opposed to getting blown up.

Hmmmm............. not sure where you get that logic CTK.

quite right harry .... as i have posted before, it is a market truism that bad figures take longer to add up than good

its also a market truism that you dont throw good money after bad. At $1,000,000 a day not sure they would hang around instead of getting off to next exploration drill target if it were a duster.

Of course they need to hang around, they need to analyse the data, it's all very important information to increase their understanding of the basin geology, even if they haven't found anything.
More wishful thinking