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Taylor Wimpey (TW.)     

skinny - 26 Jun 2014 12:12

logo-taylor-wimpey.png?mh=77&mw=165

Link to old thread

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=TW.&Size=1000&Skin=BlackBlue&Type=3&Scale=0&Cycle=DAY1&Span=YEAR1&OVER=MA(13);MA(50);MA(200)&IND=MACD(26,12,9);RSI(14)&Layout=2Line;Default;Price;HisDate&XCycle=&XFormat=




About us
We are one of the UK's largest residential developers. As a responsible developer we are committed to working with local people and communities.



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Taylor Wimpey Fundamentals (TW.)

mentor - 27 Jun 2016 15:31 - 187 of 372

Order book has change from mainly this morning weakness

For the last 15 minutes the bid side has change and the DEPTH (no. orders ) is well ahead of the offer side.

I hope is the starting of a bounce back

mentor - 27 Jun 2016 16:33 - 188 of 372

Closed @ 116p, just a bit of bounce back at the end

The chart does not work properly and showing 112.15p, it looks like is 15 minutes behind or just stop working

cynic - 27 Jun 2016 16:38 - 189 of 372

you did well to duck out even with a diddly profit
logic says that the markets must surely have fallen enough, but logic and reality have little correlation these times

mentor - 27 Jun 2016 16:45 - 190 of 372

Directors Shareholding

2 directors bought shares last Friday and one today paying much higher prices 145, 146p and 134.76p today

mentor - 27 Jun 2016 16:49 - 191 of 372

Trade of 11M as UT @ 115.80p

That is a very large trade at the end
16:35:16
115.80p
11,532,827 UT

edit 11:12pm

Questor share tip: Housing stocks creaking under Brexit uncertainty

House prices have continued to rise this year, even with the EU vote looming
Marion Dakers - 27 JUNE 2016 • 6:36PM
Taylor Wimpey £1.16 -20.3p
Questor says Avoid

The dust is far from settled following the Brexit vote last Thursday, and stocks are in flux throughout banking, property and transport.

Housing developers have been on the receiving end of some particularly aggressive selling in recent days, as investors fret that the decision to leave the EU will curb domestic appetite and scare off overseas buyers.

Questor warned last week that the property sector was one of the most exposed industries to the pain of Brexit, as a vote to leave could put the brakes on demand, particularly in the booming London market.

Taylor Wimpey shares have now almost halved since May 24, when they hit 210.3p, the highest point since the 2007/8 house price bubble burst.

On Monday, the stock was also among the unhappy group that triggered the London Stock Exchange’s circuit breakers, intended to pause shares for several minutes when they become overheated.

But is the sell-off justified?


The state of the market

Taylor Wimpey had a lot going for it: a solid presence across the country, 7.5pc sales growth last year and a penchant for special dividends.

The firm makes around a third of its sales in London and the South East, and relied upon the Government’s Help to Buy scheme to subsidise mortgages for 37pc of its customers last year.

Taylor Wimpey is not the only housebuilder propped up by Help to Buy, and it’s not even the most aggressive in this slice of the market. Persimmon, for example, sold 6,110 of its 10,043 homes last year to customers with Help to Buy mortgages, while Barratt Developments reported that 31pc of its sales relied on the scheme.

However, both the international London market and first-time buyers are now particularly vulnerable to the economic lurches that Brexit brings. Analysts at Liberum said that slowing economic growth, rising long-term interest rates and political uncertainty “is like Kryptonite” for housing stocks.

Forecasters have already lowered their outlooks. The CEBR think-tank still expects prices to rise 4.5pc this year, down from a 4.9pc growth prediction before the referendum,

Even before the outcome of the vote, Berkeley Group had sent a chill through the market earlier this month by suggesting that reservations were down 20pc on uncertainty about the referendum. This warning was followed by official figures showing a 13.8pc fall in house sales in May compared to a year ago, partly because many rushed to sell in March ahead of a new 3pc stamp duty on second homes.

Supply problems

Taylor Wimpey has a land-bank of about 76,000 plots, but how quickly will it convert that potential into cash flows?

The ability to supply the housing market with more stock could also be at risk. The CEBR think-tank estimates that one in 20 construction workers come from other EU countries, who came to fill an acute skills shortage in the British building industry.

Their right to work in the UK could be limited or removed, depending on the terms of Britain’s exit from the EU, which is at least two years away. Even if their status is unchanged, the uncertainty could prompt many to leave the country for a more stable region.

Rising house prices have so far outstripped growing labour costs, which were expected to increase by 4pc this year. A crash in prices could turn this on its head.

Economic gloom

The swaps market is now pricing in a 15pc chance of UK interest rates turning negative over the course of the next year, according to Hargreaves Lansdown, signalling a period of weak economic growth and uncertainty for the housing market.

Taylor Wimpey has fortified its balance sheet to hunker down in the event of a downturn, having cut its net debt to £94.8m last year and doubled its net cash to £223.3m, even as it paid a £308m special dividend. The firm also enjoyed an operating profit margin of 20.3pc last year, meaning prices would have to take a substantial dive before it swings to a loss.

So the company seems capable of weathering economic headwinds. For now, though, the market is ill-equipped to price property stocks given so many uncertainties about supply, demand and the overall economy. Avoid.

Foxtons

£1.04 -30.5p

Questor says SELL

Foxtons’ profit warning meant the estate agent was also in the dumps on the market, losing 22.6pc and leaving the firm at its lowest ever closing price. The heady days when the stock was pushing £4 less than a year after the initial public offering in September 2013 seem like a distant memory.

Peel Hunt analysts were particularly gloomy about the firm, saying its annual profit forecast of £42m could be halved, and that even a recovery in the London market would not be enough to revive the estate agent when its competitors are eager to undercut it on commission.

The Questor column advised selling in March, after Foxton posted a 2.6pc fall in annual profits as cheaper rivals sprang up across its London heartland.

The firm has previously managed to balance falling sales with the growing lettings market, but this equation no longer works if there is a broader draining of activity from the capital city. We see no reason to take the plunge, even at the current rock-bottom price. Sell.

Claret Dragon - 28 Jun 2016 05:47 - 192 of 372

Housebuilders bıggest worry ıs the Banks havıng any spare to lend ınto the mother of all bubbles agaın.

hlyeo98 - 28 Jun 2016 10:00 - 193 of 372

If the EU negotiations on single market is undesirable, London will no more be the financial hub and the value of London's property will drop drastically.

mentor - 28 Jun 2016 10:01 - 194 of 372

A very good marked up to 127p at the start and now settling in the middle of the rise around 121p +5.20p

mentor - 28 Jun 2016 10:17 - 195 of 372

That was yesterday.......

Brexit vote wipes $130 bln off FTSE 100 in 2 days;
Housebuilders also fell sharply, with Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon and Barratt Developments all down 13.8 to 19.4 percent.


That is today........

LONDON MARKET OPEN: Stocks Rebound;
Among the best performers In London's blue-chip index were housebuilders. Persimmon was up 6.6%, Taylor Wimpey up 6.2%, and Barratt Developments up 5.4%. They had been amongst the hardest hit stocks in the Brexit aftermath.

hlyeo98 - 28 Jun 2016 10:34 - 196 of 372

Today is just a dead cat bounce which will last for only a short while.

mentor - 28 Jun 2016 11:33 - 197 of 372

hlyeo

you post are worth nothing to me for start, as I think you still have plenty to learn, take your own decisions not what the papers say will be my advise.

we are here to make money and so buy cheap ( I did ) and sell high (I will )

re - London financial hub
London hub will or not be as before but TW. build houses not Property for rent on the City, and many of the houses are abroad, so as £ is lower profit will be higher.

House prices over here most likely will come down as they are staggering at the moment, but that takes time and as Redrow said today they are bullish so far and more to come.

So a slow down is OK for the business and share price, but a fall from 190p to 110p, on a couple days, is for me an opportunity not to be missed.

Bye, bye

cynic - 28 Jun 2016 15:12 - 198 of 372

mentor - you're right in many ways, but as always, timing is everything ...... had you known the markets were going to jump today then you would have held yesterday's position

i'm fortunate to have made a couple of shillings on the indices, but for sure I am only taking very small positions and being damned careful not to get greedy
there will be many good and many very scary times ahead

my gut feeling is that in the long term - ie within the next 2 years - an agreement between uk and eu will be brokered
for sure the eu plutocrats are shitting themselves, as well they might, for there is a very real danger of the whole enterprise imploding if there not some radical reform

hlyeo98 - 28 Jun 2016 16:27 - 199 of 372

mentor, your views are not worth a penny to me as well, certainly the papers have more notions than yours

mentor - 28 Jun 2016 16:40 - 200 of 372

Aleluya the day you wake up to reality and learn how to trade.

That is why you do not make any money ( I mean losing money ) reading papers........

,,,,,,,, and I make plenty with my own ideas that make sense

mentor - 28 Jun 2016 16:45 - 201 of 372

A late charge got the stock to 122p UT with 4.99M trade

for the day
122.10p +6.30p +5.44%

hlyeo98 - 28 Jun 2016 17:28 - 202 of 372

Hurrah! TW. has risen by 6p (really great profit) after dropping from 190p level. Wow! Great profit...

cynic - 28 Jun 2016 17:41 - 203 of 372

better than a kick in the nuts!

mentor - 28 Jun 2016 17:45 - 204 of 372

Do they say " one must have Balls of steel to buy on these markets "

Well we know a ... Hurrah, that not have even balls, mind you of steel

hlyeo98 - 28 Jun 2016 17:52 - 205 of 372

It's so funny, am I stopping you from buying???

cynic - 28 Jun 2016 18:15 - 206 of 372

mentor almost invariably trades short term and good luck to him

with regard to this particular stock, i reckon it's one of the better housebuilders - and also TEF - and do so in my sipp for the longer term
if you don't hold already (not for quick profit) then perhaps consider doing so, the timing being difficult to judge - ie there could be many bad days in the coming weeks and months
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