.

Jbc i totaly agree with you if this drill comes in.

How do you know about the shipping activity ?.....the trouble is that it could be a duster and they are already preparing to move the rig...hope not...

its all total speculation and conjecture, but they could be determining best location for appraisal well, or bringing supplies needed for appraisal drill, or they could be simply doing nothing and taking in the scenery.

jbc - Noble will want some drilling data with which to calibrate the extensive 3D planned in early 2013 (two studies).

I cannot therefore see any appraisal now, Noble will want drilling logs from Scotia to integrate into the new 3D next year - and so will push for Scotia next regardless of Loligo.

In return they could farm into the Tertiary of course - but for a nice price too post discovery of oil.

Surely an appraisal well gives far more info / data than an exploration well. If they have good results in this exploratory and get good results from an appraisal, then it gives the green light on the whole area.

Popped across the road for a looksee....and apart from the usual slanging match going on, they or most of them expect a duster...one or two think the 30m rumour might come in...but most because of no leaks expect bad news....well RKH gave no indication before Sealion....so nobody knows anything.....really frustrating...

jbc -Noble are not farmed into the Loligo Tertiary targets.

Noble will want drill data from Scotia, a mid-Cretaceous target they are farmed into.

It would put FOGL into a stunning position. They can pay BOR for their drill data in the South - and use that data with their new 3D coming in 2013.

They will have new 3D over all the Eastern basin as well in 2013.

FOGL, after drilling Scotia, will have drill data logs for Loligo, for Scotia and can get the others from BOR by some kind of agreement for Darwin and Stebbing.

End result is they have drill data on all play types - and then all new 3D over the whole license area's.

They (well Noble) should be able to then come up with a damn good list of top priority targets for 2014 when Noble are the operator.

Could do with an extra drilling slot this year...no possibility of delaying the rig arrival in Norway I presume, later this year ?...

I frankly think that they are going to be mighty unlucky not to encounter any hydrocarbons at all with five targets....now whether any of these targets are commercial or not depends on a bit of luck.....so it's all to play for.....some news should start to emerge now from one source or another....

The fact of the matter is that if it were a duster it wouldn't take this long for them to release an RNS!!!!!!!!!

Why?

Wishful thinking, just like all the other thousands of posts of many sites trying to rationalise every single aspect of this drill. But the fact of the matter is that until tomorrow (if they release a RNS) PIs have no idea what the news will be.

But whatever, the outcome, good luck, better to see the gamblers winning as opposed to getting blown up.

Hmmmm............. not sure where you get that logic CTK.

quite right harry .... as i have posted before, it is a market truism that bad figures take longer to add up than good

its also a market truism that you dont throw good money after bad. At $1,000,000 a day not sure they would hang around instead of getting off to next exploration drill target if it were a duster.

Of course they need to hang around, they need to analyse the data, it's all very important information to increase their understanding of the basin geology, even if they haven't found anything.
More wishful thinking

why do they need to hang around to analyse data? Once the data has been gathered they can probably tell straightaway wether it is generally good or not, and if it wasnt good they wouldnt take a minute longer than they had to. Time is money. On the other hand if there was postive info that might be a reason to conduct further more indepth logging / analysis etc.

Ok, you're right

not saying im right or wrong just speculating. As i said before i have only dipped my toe and dont have a lot invested as others do. However, in my opinion the upside is better value than the downside, and in any sort of gamble and this is exactly what this is, value is key. Searching for value wether it be the bookies pricing up a horse incorrectly or the market pricing up a share price incorrectly is key to investing. They wont alwasy come in but when they do because you found value the payout is much better.

Better to be Long than Short on this one IMO. Shorters have much more to loose on a positive result than Longers on a negative result. All IMO

Shorters always have more to lose their downside is infinite whereas bulls know exactly what the downside is (hero to zero).

Stocks cannot be looked at in the same way as horses or any other gambling activities, like poker when trying to find value. The CoS with these drills, as determined by the company or an analyst is a complete crock, whereas the odds with the nags are more easily determined, at least in the most basic way, eg, every horse has a theoretical equal chance. And you'll find that nearly every share is incorrectly priced by the market, you don't need to look very far. At the moment FOGL is over-priced by about 100% in terms of value, tomorrow, that may change.

You cant determine value simply by working out the NAV as you have mentioned above. You have to work in other variables. In this case future drilling prospects, the overall chance of success at somepoint in the FI. The chance of success in this drill and possible SP rise dependent on various positive outcomes. NAV isnt the same as investing value.

I can also see many scenarios where shorting is better value in respect to share prices. It is nonsensical to say shorters have an unlimited downside, in the vast majority of stocks. BT arent going to double / triple in price overnight.

That is why there is so much value in FOGL because there is a possibility of this and why IMO shorting is bad value in this particular scenario.