http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

holding up quite well all things considered (288)

"Rockhopper Exploration, the North Falkland Basin oil and gas exploration company, is pleased to provide results following analysis of wireline MDT samples obtained from the recent Sea Lion 14/10-2 oil discovery well in the North Falkland Basin.

Samples analysed under reservoir conditions in a specialist laboratory are confirmed as medium grade crude with the following characteristics:

* API confirmed as 26.4 - 29.2 degrees

* Low Viscosity of 6.5 - 8.5 centipoises at reservoir pressure

* Gas Oil Ratio of 261 - 272 standard cubic feet per stock tank barrel

* A typical Wax Content of 18.4% - 20.8% wt*

* Formation Value Factor (FVF) of 1.16

* Low sulphur of around 0.2% weight

Sam Moody, Managing Director, commented:
"These positive results, when combined with our knowledge of reservoir quality from logging data, give us further comfort that a flow test of the Sea Lion well will confirm a mobile crude oil.

The wax content is typical for a lacustrine sourced crude oil and significantly lower than many other producing oilfields worldwide. Furthermore the viscosity, gas oil ratio, FVF and sulphur are all better than we anticipated."

Oriel Brokers note

Rockhopper Exploration (RKH, BUY, 284p) - Oil Sample Analysis
Rockhopper issued an update on the oil sample analysis this morning which appears to support our valuation assumptions.

The API has been confirmed at 26.4-29.2 API with a low viscosity of 6.5-8.5 centipoise which should support recovery factors of 30% assuming the reservoir is not significantly compartmentalised (which doesn't appear to be an issue based on the available seismic data).

The wax content is moderately high at 18.4-20.8% which may increase costs and heated tankers may be need to export the oil. However we have already assumed a 15% discount to Brent and capex of US$12/boe in our valuation which appear to adequately reflect this issue. Based on the P50 reserves estimate of 242mb we estimate Sea Lion is worth 761p/sh (or 260p/sh for the P10 OIIP estimate with a 30% recovery).

Rockhopper stands out as cheap in our valuation grid based just on the Sea Lion discovery and given the clear follow on potential in the acreage we retain our BUY recommendation.

The news just gets better and better at RKH:-)

Fox Davies brokers note

Rockhopper Exploration (LON:RKH) (BUY, 4.00) (RKH, 282.25p, ▼ (3.26%)) announced results of the analysis of wireline MDT samples obtained from the recent Sea Lion 14/10-2 oil discovery well in the North Falkland Basin. Samples analysed under reservoir conditions in a specialist laboratory are confirmed as medium grade crude of 26.4-29.2o API, a low viscosity of 6.5-8.5 centipoises at reservoir pressure, a Gas Oil ratio of 261-272 cubic feet per stock tank barrel and a low sulphur content of 0.2% weight.

Regardless of the FOGL result next week I do think that the pre-flow test buying will see RKH over 400p within 2 weeks from now and from there up to over 650p on a good flow test and then up higher again should the flow test data reveal a further upgrade in the size figures once all the data has been crunched and put into the modeling.

All the hot money is now out of RKH, all of those wanting to sell ahead of any FOGL failure have now sold and a whole swathe of money is waiting to buy back in to RKH.


My valuation targets are :

Cash - Ignore it.
Fox / Stephens - ignore them for now (to allow for dilution effect)
Other plays - ignore them for now (to counter the dilution effect)

Sea Lion pre flow test - 260p to 450p
Sea Lion post successful flow test - 650p to 750p ( based on P50 242M barrels)
Sea Lion upgraded to the P50 after flow test - add 2.9p per extra 1M barrels

Ernest successful drill - 130p to 200p
Ernest post flow test - 350p to 430p (based on a 150M barrel find)
Ernest upgraded from 150M - add 2.89p per extra 1M barrels

Sea Lion and Ernest coming in and flow testing ok would put a value based on P50 figures of over 1100p per share - allowing for some dilution going into the FTSE 250 move off of AIM, fingers crossed my 900p per share target for year end will be surpassed.


Exciting times ahead !

exciting for sure, but then so i am told, are rollercoasters

From UK-Analyst

Rockhopper Exploration (RKH) shares jumped by 11.25p to 293.5p on reports that samples from its recent discovery on the Sea Lion prospect, off the Falkland Islands have been confirmed as medium grade crude. The South Atlantic focused oil explorer took the sample from the Sea Lion 14/10-2 oil discovery well in the North Falkland Basin and tested them under reservoir conditions. These positive results, when combined with the firm's knowledge of reservoir quality, provide comfort that a flow test of the Sea Lion well will confirm a mobile crude oil, Rockhopper's managing director Sam Moody said. Following the good news, Canaccord reiterated its 563p target price and "BUY" recommendation.

They should have a 563p "pre flow test" target and should upgrade post successful flow test to well over 750p target, perhaps 900p or more.

Enjoy the ride, its going to be a real exciting time ahead on RKH.

Well I think we have a exciting week in front of us with FOGL results due this week if they have hit oil I will be amazed as its a stab in the dark with a basin which is undrilled and it was not there best target either if they hit oil the upside in the share price will be huge but if a duster there share price will fall faster than a falling knife as will BOR share price.

Hence I dont hold any shares in both companies but wish FOGL holders good luck if oil is found I will buy at some point.

Maybe a small blip in RKH and DES sp on news of a duster but two different basins all together.

What we have now in the next couple of months is the making of RKH and happy to sit fully loaded, I believe the flow test equipment maybe in the FI and which order things come in to play is anyone guess at moment.

Exciting times ahead.

FOGL..... I would expect them to find oil but nothing commercial and they will say its all very exciting to have oil confirmed in the basin and thats it.

Spike and then collapse back.

RKH is a different ball game, I expect RKH to climb upwards now for some time.

Slowly, slowly up she rises.

Director buys, and good amounts.

You cannot ask for more confirmation can you......


RNS Number : 8781O
Rockhopper Exploration plc
06 July 2010

ROCKHOPPER EXPLORATION PLC (The 'Company')

Director Dealing

The Company announces that it has received notification that Pierre Jungels, the
Company's Executive Chairman, and Chris Walton, a Non-Executive Director, on 5
July 2010 acquired ordinary shares of 1 pence each in the Company ("Ordinary
Shares"). Details of their purchases are ........................



Pierre Jungels purchases 23,350 @ 298.5 pence each.

Chris Walton buys 8,300 @ 297.625 pence each

Totaly agree with you there Proselenes and have just added more.....L2 there is only fresh air till 3.15

hardly large buys!

Anything above 15K sterling is a good buy size. The Chairman buying 70K value of stock is a good sign, a very good sign.

And if you bother to research who RKH's Chairman is, meaning his career as opposed to him being Pierre Jungels, you will appreciate what a big vote of confidence it is for him to buy a decent amount like that !

Dr Pierre Jungels CBE has fingers in a great number of pies. His purchase of RKH shares is miniscule compared to his holdings in other companies, many of which are large multi-nationals. He probably found the cash to buy these shares down the back of the sofa!

lol....some can even deramp director buys!!! beggars belief when some can't see the wood for the trees.

lol..bit like cynic then.,.

Cynic is a holder of RKH ....he knows a good thing he has a nose like a hound!!!!

Fresh air now up to 3.20 the mms have pulled back a little...Tally Ho