.

Shorters always have more to lose their downside is infinite whereas bulls know exactly what the downside is (hero to zero).

Stocks cannot be looked at in the same way as horses or any other gambling activities, like poker when trying to find value. The CoS with these drills, as determined by the company or an analyst is a complete crock, whereas the odds with the nags are more easily determined, at least in the most basic way, eg, every horse has a theoretical equal chance. And you'll find that nearly every share is incorrectly priced by the market, you don't need to look very far. At the moment FOGL is over-priced by about 100% in terms of value, tomorrow, that may change.

You cant determine value simply by working out the NAV as you have mentioned above. You have to work in other variables. In this case future drilling prospects, the overall chance of success at somepoint in the FI. The chance of success in this drill and possible SP rise dependent on various positive outcomes. NAV isnt the same as investing value.

I can also see many scenarios where shorting is better value in respect to share prices. It is nonsensical to say shorters have an unlimited downside, in the vast majority of stocks. BT arent going to double / triple in price overnight.

That is why there is so much value in FOGL because there is a possibility of this and why IMO shorting is bad value in this particular scenario.

Who was using NAV? IMO FOGL is overpriced by 100%, doesn't have to be your opinion or anyone elses, but it's mine and which gives a value at which I might consider investing. Good luck in trying to put a current or future value on what FOGL might be worth, so what's the chance of success on the next drill, or the one after? Sorry, but if you're trying to value a wildcat drilling company on normal valuation methodology, then you're trying to balance your gamble with investing. As I said good luck with it.

200 million in the bank.....market cap...200 million....overpriced ?....

I am not trying to put a value on anything. I am trying to find value. To me putting £50 for example into FOGL with an upside return of £500 or a downside loss of £25 is good value.

Putting £50 into FOGL with a downside loss £500 or an upside return of £25 doesnt seem like value.

sorry to be patronising, but putting £50 into any share strikes me as being a total waste of time and money, for your unavoidable o'heads - i.e. minimum charges - will be disproportionately high

it was an example ! To make the analogy easier.

jbc - Don't be put off by the big hitters. I started with £500 years ago in a company called COLT Telecom and have never looked back. I agree £50 is on the low side, but I assume that was an example rather than a true figure?
What odds there will be a RNS at 07.00 hrs tomorrow? Might have to be up earlier than usual!

cor! never been described as a big hitter before .... nearest i ever got to that was being called (regularly) a total wanker :-)

Off topic....Guys and Dolls : believe it or not : there is a massive hurricane heading for Europe.....hold on to your hats if it reaches the UK !....

Well...if it's a strike...anything above a pound.....a duster....(really unlucky if so )....40p as well supported financially, with two majors backing the company (Edison and Noble)......and on to Scotia.....

if 40p was a placing price, then there's lots of history to show that that means diddlysquat

Re post 1897.... I didn't like to say.,.

Well - good luck everyone - I will be buying be it bad news or good news and so I may be very quiet later today if news comes out as expected 7am.

So do not expect any detailed posts from me until the dust has settled down and the BB loonies have gone.

I will probably only comment on Twitter if I get the chance. ( @proselenes )

Good luck and have a great week regardless !!

cynic and others got it wrong!
gas discovery but have not yet read any detail at all

that should put a smile on the faces MrP and Poodle-boy

====================

now that i have read it, i'm not much or even none the wiser

however, while it's obviously much better than zero, it does not seem to be a cast-iron humdinger - if there is such a thing!

Gas Discovery !...

At a guess with a 100m of interval this looks like a large gas discovery.... perhaps very large over a wide area.....just like it showed up on the seismic !...gas over a wide area.....I reckon that there might be several trillion cubic feet, at least.....can't yet be declared commercial but I bet it is.....shame it's not oil, but a very large gas discovery is not to be sneezed at !

Quick comment. Excellent news to get so much potential pay in such a compromised well location - with T5 even better than expected pre-drill.

This well was not about hitting net pay, it was about drilling all the targets to sample them all, and it did that.

The appraisal wells in the next drilling round, after 3D seismic is done early next year will be all about hitting the thick net pay.

With the sweet spots it could certainly be a 25 TCF recoverable total for Loligo now - way past the needed 5 TCF recoverable for commercial development and in excess of the 10 TCF recoverable needed for very attractive commercial development.

Edison SPA must be well happy, they are EDF's gas development side - spearheading EDF's gas exploration and development program.

Excellent news and now on to Scotia - for a 1 billion recoverable barrels P50 potential there - and Scotia is pure oil prospect :)

Very happy the whole Eastern Falklands is now in play.

P50 for the East Falklands is potentially 80 billion BOE recoverable, and now its all systems go !!!

Very happy - and thats all I have to say :)

Yes....looks like a big commercial gas discovery....will help to reduce the UK's imports in future years....

They say that the area exceeds 250 to 600 square km of resource !....this is big .....very...