http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

Shahristani agrees to grant a license to a U.S. company to drill in Kurdistan
Hassan Hafidh and James Herron need to read this...


Dubai - Eastern November 10: high-level sources said in Baghdad that the Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister for Energy, Hussain al-Shahristani agreed that one of the big U.S. oil companies operating in southern Iraq, the signing of major agreements for oil exploration and export and investment in Iraq's Kurdistan .. . The sources said that it is part of the political agreements to improve relations between the KRG and the central government in Baghdad, adding that al-Shahristani, continued during the past few weeks, negotiations between the Kurdistan Regional Government and the company's large and committed themselves not to object \ advance approval of the agreement and the continuation of the company's work in southern and northern Iraq at a time .. and according to sources in the Iraqi Oil Ministry said al-Shahristani, has agreed to a U.S. company to buy shares in the field, "Moore Creek" in Kurdistan, in addition to access to exploration rights, investment and export.

http://www.rferl.org/content/baghdad_kurds_agree_on_oil_gas_bill/24388290.html

nice one niceone :-)) have a good weekend all

"BREAKING NEWS !!
By Joe Carroll
just found this on hegnar


Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Iraq will recognize the validity of
oil-exploration contracts signed by the semi-autonomous Kurdish
regional authorities under terms of an agreement to be announced
this month, two people familiar with the talks said.
The deal, worked out between Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri
Kamil al-Maliki and Kurdistan Regional Government leader Barham
Salih during the past three weeks, ends the risk that foreign
oil producers such as Exxon Mobil Corp. would be stripped of
some oil-field projects as punishment for signing contracts in
the Kurdish-controlled north, the people said. They spoke on
condition of anonymity because the talks aren't public."

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/eba759d0-0c3f-11e1-8ac6-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1dQwkMZDm


...........Afren added 14.6 per cent to 85p, small-cap Petroceltic International rose 15.4 per cent higher at 7p and Gulf Keystone Petroleum lifted 25 per cent to 177p. The sharp moves encouraged bid speculation, with traders reporting talk that Gulf Keystone could attract an all-share offer from Hess Corporation or Vallares, Tony Haywards investment vehicle.....................


.

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-11/iraq-to-recognize-kurdish-oil-contracts-with-foreign-explorers.html


Iraq to Recognize Kurdish Oil Deals With Foreign Explorers

By Joe Carroll
November 11, 2011 5:43 PM EST

Iraq, home to the worlds fourth- largest oil reserves, will recognize the validity of drilling contracts signed by the semi-autonomous Kurdish regional authorities under terms of an agreement to be announced this month, two people familiar with the talks said.

The deal, worked out between Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Kamil al-Maliki and Kurdistan Regional Government leader Barham Salih during the past three weeks, ends the risk that foreign oil producers such as Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) would be stripped of some oil-field projects as punishment for signing contracts in the Kurdish-controlled north, the people said. They spoke on condition of anonymity because the talks arent public.

Hostility between the Baghdad-based central government and Kurdish authorities over how to oversee drilling and allocate revenue from the Persian Gulf nations vast crude reserves has simmered since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003. Relations reached a low point in 2009 when oil exports were temporarily suspended.

Exxon, the worlds biggest company by market value, recently signed contracts with the Kurdistan Regional Government to explore six blocks in the countrys north, Michael Howard, an adviser to the regional authority, said earlier today in an e- mailed statement.

Differences Resolved

Exxon, whose worldwide crude output exceeded that of every member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries except Saudi Arabia, Iran and Venezuela last year, is the latest Western entrant into Kurdistan. Others include Vallares Plc, the explorer founded by former BP Plc Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward, Afren Plc (AFR), Hess Corp. (HES), Murphy Oil Corp. (MUR), Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) and Repsol YPF SA. (REP)

Salih, a U.K.-educated engineer, spent about a week in Baghdad in late October conferring with al-Maliki about the long-standing oil dispute, the people said. The final outstanding differences were ironed out during the past two weeks, they said.

The announcement of Exxons Kurdish contracts boosted the shares of other explorers that are targeting the region. Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (GKP) surged 33 percent in London trading, while DNO International ASA (DNO) jumped 31 percent in Oslo.

An index of 10 Western oil companies with Kurdish exploration agreements rose as much as 3.3 percent today, the biggest intraday gain since Oct. 27.

Exxon was little changed at $79.64 at 5:20 p.m. in after- hours trading in New York. The shares have risen 9 percent this year.

Export Goals

Alan Jeffers, a spokesman for Irving, Texas-based Exxon, declined to comment. John Porretto, a Marathon spokesman, said no one was immediately available for an interview.

Earlier today, the announcement about Exxons agreement in Kurdistan prompted Abdul-Mahdy al-Ameedi, the head of the Baghdad-based Oil Ministrys licensing department, to say that the U.S. explorer could be kicked out of the giant West Qurna field project in the countrys south as retaliation.

Richard Quin, lead analyst for Middle East-North Africa energy research at Wood Mackenzie Consultants Ltd., said the central government was unlikely to follow through on al-Ameedis threat.

It wouldnt be in Iraqs best interest to effectively rip up their contract, Quin said in a telephone interview from Edinburgh. That would be detrimental to Iraqs expansion of southern exports.

West Qurna

Exxon and partners Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA) and Iraqs Oil Exploration Co. boosted production from the West Qurna field by 48 percent in the past year to 370,000 barrels a day.

The companies are injecting water into the field to flush more crude to the surface, under the terms of a 20-year development deal signed in January 2010.

Iraqs 115 billion barrels in estimated crude reserves are among the worlds largest, exceeded only by those of Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Iran, according to BPs annual review of global energy reserves. Canadas oil sands are counted as a different category from so-called conventional resources in the BP statistics.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/battle-looms-between-us-oil-giant-and-iraq-6261056.html

high-stakes battle over Iraq's oil commenced yesterday after Baghdad threatened to throw ExxonMobil, one of America's most powerful companies, out of the country eight years after the US army toppled Saddam Hussein.

Baghdad was retaliating after the world's biggest company signed a landmark deal to explore for oil and gas in six blocks of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in northern Iraq.

The deal will see Exxon become the first "supermajor" to set up in the region as well as the first oil company to operate in both Iraq and the portion of Kurdistan that is situated in Iraq.

Abdul-Mahdy al-Ameedi, director of the Iraqi oil ministry's contracts and licensing director, said yesterday he had warned Exxon of "dire consequences" last month if it signed these exploration deals with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).

"Exxon Mobil could face disqualification and the termination of its contract with the oil ministry," to develop the West Qurna field in oil-rich southern Iraq, Mr Ameedi added.

A source at one of the supermajors said: "Baghdad has always said very vociferously that if anybody in Iraq signs a deal with Kurdistan they will get kicked out. We got quite a surprise when we found out that Exxon had gone ahead and done that and it will be interesting to see what happens."

Yesterday's threat dented hopes that Baghdad was close to formalising existing contracts in Iraqi Kurdistan as part of a broader agreement on oil revenues across the whole country. The move is likely to further discourage BP and Shell which both have operations in southern Iraq but no plans to move into Kurdistan.

Analysts said that both Exxon and the Iraq government were playing a high-stakes game, as Baghdad attempts to balance the need to grow its own oil industry with the desire to rein in the power of Kurdistan.

Samuel Ciszuk, an oil analyst at IHS Global Insight, said: "This deal is the worst possible headache for the Iraq government."

Mr Ciszuk added: "Exxon is developing one of the biggest oil projects in the south and is the lead on a huge water injection system that will be used by oil companies across the region. To kick Exxon out would be a very powerful statement because it would be would effectively derail most of its production boosting programme for a good year or two."

Phil Corbett, at Royal Bank of Scotland, said: "The temptation has become too great for Exxon to resist in effect Exxon is calling Baghdad's bluff, presumably believing that it won't lose its West Qurna project interest with a move into Kurdistan."

Iraq is presently producing about 2.8 million barrels a day but hopes to boost this to 12 million by 2017 a level which experts believe to be hugely ambitious, even with Exxon's contribution.

However, although Iraq is keen to tap the huge revenues that would flow from a surge in oil production, it is wary of Kurdistan making too much money from its oil industry because that would increase the region's power and, in turn, its claim for autonomy, Mr Ciszuk said.

Kurdistan is estimated to hold about 45 billion barrels of oil and up to 200,000 cubic feet of gas and a number of oil explorers including the latest venture of the former BP chief executive Tony Hayward have piled in to the region recently.

The Times-

"If true, other majors would be sure to follow ExxonMobil into the semi-autonomous region, making generous takeovers of the likes of Gulf Keystone Petroleum or Afren appear more plausible. That was the theory, anyway. Afren rose 11p to 85p, while Petroceltic International and Heritage Oil, both with exposure to Kurdish Iraq, put on a penny to 7p and 1p to 202p, respectively
================================================================================


Energy explorers create ripples as City enjoys a rare day of plain sailing
12 November 2011

On a calmer day on the stock market, it was left to the black stuff to provide the excitement.

A report that Americas ExxonMobil was poised to become the first oil supermajor" to step into the Kurdish region of northern Iraq sent shares sharply higher in those racier explorers that are already there.

Chief among them was Gulf Keystone Petroleum, beloved of so many of those private investors who populate internet bulletin boards. The shares were chased 35p higher to 177p as the companys devout followers took news of such a move by the biggest oil company of all, if confirmed, as a reassuring sign that the area was becoming less risky politically.

It would also seem to indicate a possible thawing of the dispute between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government about the legality of existing production-sharing contracts signed by the KRG.

If true, other majors would be sure to follow ExxonMobil into the semi-autonomous region, making generous takeovers of the likes of Gulf Keystone Petroleum or Afren appear more plausible. That was the theory, anyway. Afren rose 11p to 85p, while Petroceltic International and Heritage Oil, both with exposure to Kurdish Iraq, put on a penny to 7p and 1p to 202p, respectively.

http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2011/11/12/176707.html

Guy Caruso, a senior adviser in the energy program at the Washington-based Center For Strategic and International Studies, said Exxons move into Kurdistan was likely a play for reserves. Under its current contract with Baghdad, Exxon cannot book oil reserves from West Qurna.

This is part of the access issue, Mr. Caruso said. There arent a lot of places that have such prospective reserve development.

http://www.ctv.ca/generic/generated/static/business/article2233861.html

I

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-11-12/iraq-government-says-accord-made-with-kurds-on-oil-contracts.html

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/chevron-to-join-slick-of-oil-supermajors-in-kurdistan-6261405.html

Chevron to join slick of oil supermajors in Kurdistan

American company set to enter the battle for a share of northern Iraq's massive reserves

Sunday 13 November 2011

Chevron is expected to be the next oil supermajor to break into Kurdistan, the semi-autonomous region of northern Iraq.

On Friday, ahead of today's major oil conference in the Kurdistan capital of Erbil, it emerged that ExxonMobil is the first supermajor to have signed exploration contracts in the region.

Kurdistan regional government adviser Michael Howard claimed there had been talks with several of the world's biggest oil companies. According to sources, Chevron has "run the slide rule" over the Shaikan onshore block, which is majority owned by London-listed group Gulf Keystone Petroleum.

However, it is believed that the Shaikan field, which is estimated to hold an extraordinary 10.5 billion barrels of oil, is actually the subject of one of the six licences that Exxon has taken.

The details of the six licences did not emerge on Friday. But, sources suggest that Dr Ashti Hawrami, Kurdistan's Minister for Natural Resources, plans to open today's conference by revealing the specifics of the deal.

It seems likely that Exxon has taken a 20 per cent stake in Shaikan. The Kurdistan government had an option of taking this stake once the field was proven to be commercially viable, and it is this that has been sold on rather than a portion of Gulf Keystone's undiluted 75 per cent holding.

Gulf Keystone owns other interests in Kurdistan, and sources close to the company believe that at least another two of Exxon's six interests relate to these fields. However, this could not be confirmed yesterday.

The news will be a huge boost to Gulf Keystone's large investor base, which includes a vast n.................................

Looks like the firework display starts 8 00am tomorrow??

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 12, 2011
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2011/11/iraqs-oil-law-baghdad-and-kurdistan.html

*Iraq's Oil Law ~ Baghdad And Kurdistan 'Agree' On Oil/Gas Bill .. To Be Submitted to Parliament and Immediately Passed on First Reading ...
Snip ~ Bahaa al-Din Ahmad, a member of parliament's Oil and Energy Committee, told RFE/RL the committee expected to receive the amended version of the oil and gas bill soon, since the Eid al-Adha holiday was over, and would be immediately passed on first reading ...

.
ERBIL - Iraq Oil Report has obtained the exact location of the blocks Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government has signed with Exxon Mobil.

They are:

* Al Qush: located immediately west of Shaikhan (Gulf Keystone Petroleum), northwest of Erbil city, and formerly assigned to Komet Group but withdrawn for lack of development.

* Baeshiqa: located immediately south of Ain Sifni (Hunt Oil), southeast of Al Qush.

* Pirmam: located immediately north of Mala Omar (OMV). The ancestral home and headquarters of KRG President Massoud Barzani is located within the boundaries of this block.

* Betwata: located immediately east of Harir (Marathon) and immediately north of Shakrok (Hess)

* Qara-Hanjeer: located immediately south-southwest of Chamchamal (Dana Gas/Crescent Petroleum/OMV/MOL).

* Sixth block: located immediately north-northeast of Arbat (Shamaran). Thus far is not officially named, is located along the border with Iran and includes in its area the important Penjwin border crossing.

The locations were confirmed by KRG Minister of Natural Resources Ashti Hawrami Sunday morning at the CWC Kurdistan oil and gas conference.

The deals were "signed and completed 18th of October, 2011," Hawrami said. "It is a final signing."

well put by BBBS on iii

------

No reason for disappointment here folks! The MOST important thing is that ExxonMobil is now 'officially' confirmed beyond any doubt. AMAZING!!

And don't be too quick in discounting the Shaikan 'connections'. The Shaikan structure DEFINITELY overlaps into Al Qush - maybe as much as 25% of Shaikan is in that Block.

And keep in kind that all 6 of these announced Blocks are FULL Block allocations. This in itself does not discount that EM may have also taken minority interests in some other already allocated Blocks, i.e. by way of Third Party BIR (Back in Rights). As others have mentioned, the correct way of announcing such allocations - if there are any - would be the prerogative of the other current participants in those Blocks. I absolutely do NOT discount the Independent article yet. RNS tomorrow anyone?

It's interesting to see that three of the Blocks - Al Qush, Baeshiqa and Qara-Hanjeer - all sit within areas that were no doubt previously "Disputed Territories" (between KRG and ICG). So there has also been movement towards agreement in these areas as well.

I am humongously encouraged!

GLA,

BBBS

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-12/iraq-government-says-agreement-made-with-kurds-on-oil-contracts.html

roll on monday - shell were also involved but declined......basically the iraq gov cannot afford not to agree and does not want anymore of what has happened previously - another view / more data:



ExxonMobil-KRG deal: A puzzling move at a critical time
Posted on 12 November 2011. Tags: Ahmed Mousa Jiyad; Oil in Iraq; KRG; ExxonMobil; West Qurna1; Oil and Gas Law

The news of ExxonMobils venture by signing 6-locks PSCs with KRG could have very serious ramifications as the move is rather puzzling, it occurred and became known at critical time, and consequently cornered the Iraqi government off-guarded. The company has been negotiating with KRG, directly or through intermediaries, for many months leading to signing agreement(s) in October. International sources say the Iraqi government was notified on the matter, and the Ministry of Oil had issued three letters to the company stressing that, according to regulations of the central government, any company which signs deals with the KRG wouldnt be allowed to work in the center and south of the country, meaning ExxonMobil would risk its (with Shell) Wes Qurna 1 giant oilfield. Also reliable source says, the six blocks were originally offered to Shell and ExxonMobil three each, but Shell declined the offer, and KRG gave ExxonMobil a 48 hours ultimatum before the deal was finally signed in London.

It is expected the Iraq council of Ministers meet urgently to discuss the matter and decide on the fate of the West Qurna 1 contract with ExxonMobil.

What motivated ExxonMobil to make this move despite the warning from the Ministry of Oil is a matter the company alone can answer, others could only speculate. But why a company that has the highest contract- in barrels-term, and has the leading position in a major water injection project would risk these two lucrative projects and, possibly any other future opportunities? Only time will tell!

The timing is also critical and unfavorable for the Iraqi government. American forces are, and would be fully, leaving the country by the end of the year. The government is obviously preoccupied with the implications and consequences of this withdrawal at least from security perspectives. Another factor of inconveniency is the recent call to declare Salahudin governorate as region with possible spillover to other governorates/ provinces. A third factor is the negotiation that has been going on between the government and KRG regarding the oil and gas law, would be impacted by this move. Fourthly, the domestic political climate among and between the main political factions and blocks within the government and the parliament are at its low. Finally, the PM, Mr. Nuri AlMaliki is about to embark on a crucial visit to the White House to usher new phase of relationship between the two countries. Surely this action by ExxonMobil would be a distracting item on the discussion table.

But what can the government do? It has limited options but none is easy or convenient, though the relationship with ExxonMobil might get sour, or even deteriorate rapidly.

At one extreme, the government keeps quiet, lets it go and ignores the three warning letters, which its ministry of oil sent to ExxonMobil.

This would be interpreted as tacit acquiescence of what ExxonMobil have done. Other companies could follow-suit rapidly. The implication is that government loses face with regards to its declared blacklisting policy, and practically put an end to such a policy. Two types of contracts (e.g., service contacts and production sharing contracts-PSCs) became reality. The oil and gas law would recognize this reality, and all KRG s PSCs would be recognized and legalized easily. Other governorates would claim similar status for independently concluding their own petroleum upstream contracts, with big and small foreign oil companies occupying the drivers seat. The final outcomes would be no national petroleum policy, internal resource-conflicts, collapse of central authority and the beginning of disintegrated Iraq.

The other extreme is firm stand based on disqualify and terminate. The government could first disqualify ExxonMobil from the forthcoming fourth bid round, and immediately invoke the Termination clause under Article 8.1 (a) for committing a breach of a material obligation of this Contract. The material obligation in the contract is the adherence to Law as defined in item 46 of article one.

The disqualification and termination would lead to exclude ExxonMobil from any future business opportunity such as the participation in the exploration bid rounds, the common water injection project and any other activity. The termination clause would, according to sub article 37.4-.8, lead eventually to an international arbitration, which could take time to reach a verdict. Consequently, the development of WQ1 would suffer a blow (but not suspend production) until either an amicable solution with ExxonMobil is reached or the arbitration process ends. In both cases there would be lost time and revenues, and could be compensation if the arbitration case is lost.

On the diplomatic front, this option could sever the bilateral relation with the US, as it is inconceivable that ExxonMobil takes this action without States Department knowledge or even blessing. The US might retaliate by muddling through internal politics and destabilize the country even further. But this is a risky endeavor for the US to follow!

On the other hand this option would consolidate unified petroleum policy, bring to the fore of national attention the sovereignty issue, provide strong support for the governments in its negotiation with KRG, particularly with regards to oil and gas law and prevent IOCs from muddling in the internal politics. In other words the outcomes of this option could be the exact reverse of the first tacit acquiescence option.

Both options are difficult, risky and could have negative consequences. But the government has to act as representative of an independent sovereign state and protect the integrity and interests of the country.

Ahmed Mousa Jiyad,

Iraq/ Development Consultancy and Research,

Norway.

12 Nov 2011

mou-jiya@online.no

Sun Nov 13, 2011 4:46pm GMT

* Gulf Keystone sees interest in asset sale

* CEO says company well-funded, not for sale

ARBIL, Iraq Nov 13 (Reuters) - Kurdistan-focused oil explorer Gulf Keystone said it has interest for its 20 percent stake in the Arki-Bijeel block in the semi-autonomous region, but any sale was still in the preliminary stages, an executive said.

The block in Kurdistan is estimated to hold around 2.4 billion barrels of oil and is operated by Hungary's MOL .

"We've got a lot of interested parties, but we have not identified a purchaser," Gulf Keystone CEO Todd Kozel told Reuters. "We haven't gone to the bidding process yet. It's in the data room process, data gathering and identifying interest."

Kurdistan is enjoying a surge in investor interest. The semi-autonomous region in the north of Iraq has enjoyed more stability and security than the rest of the country where violence remains a stubborn risk.

"Kurdistan is the hottest play in town in the oil business," Kozel said.

Still, Baghdad and Kurdistan's capital Arbil have a long-standing dispute over who controls oilfields and land. The central government calls Kurdistan's deals with foreign oil companies illegal.

Kozel said Gulf Keystone was already fully funded to build a pipeline and would be "very well funded" for their budget with the asset sale they plan.

But the executive said there were no plans to sell the company.

"Gulf Keystone is not for sale," he said. "We have not been approached by any company making an offer." http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL5E7MD0KP20111113

Zen's summing up of this mornings presentation.

==

ZENGAS - 13 Nov'11 - 11:26 - 126646 of 126652

Valuation imo becoming very clear.

GKP Conference Presentation today.

*** SLIDE 6 ***

Shaikan recoverable **reserves** estimate at 3.5 b bls to 4.4 b bls.

Discounting TKI and using only GKPs net 51% -

This would give GKP a net 1.785 b - 2.24 b bls recoverable from Shaikan (before any further upside).

To put that in context -
DNO rereseves 355 mmbo (11m which are in Yemen).
Rak valuation re DNO at 9.50 NOK = $1.6B.
Petroila 10 NOK offer for DNO shares = $1.7b.
Vallares offer for Genel with 356 mmbo reserves = $2.1b.

On that basis GKPs reserves could be 5 - 6.3 times greater than DNO or Genel.

If one was to use the average of DNO ($1.7b) and Genel valuations ($2.1b) = $1.9b the potential valuation x 5 = $9.5b (or x 6.3) = $12b. = 6.60 - 8.33 per share. (using 900 m shares fully diluted/options included).

If you were to only use the Genel valuation the valuation parameter would be 7.30 - 9.20 (and we were toild that bidders for Genel had offerred more)..

Sheik-Adi, Berbahr, Bechme, Akri-Bijeel and the other prospects are still entirely un-accounted for.

I see Spencer Freeman has tweeted again in the last 30 minutes that "a 900p is waiting in the wings for GKP for the sale of their Shaikan licence".

Doing the math so to speak certainly makes Sandunnes (8) and S Freemans (9) highly credible and doing the sums on what GKP have presented in their latest presentation today, the figures definitely stack up imo.