ETFS Short Crude Oil (SOIL) is designed to change each day by minus one times (-1x) the daily percentage change in the DJ-AIG Crude Oil Sub-IndexSM (before fees and adjustments). Therefore if the DJ-AIG Crude Oil Sub-IndexSM falls (or rises) by 1% in one day, then ETFS Short Crude Oil will rise (or fall) by 1%. In addition, an interest component is added each day to give a total return investment.





s7.39 or 4.80P GOOD STARTING POINT. 13 FEB NOW $3.50 or 2.50 half price sorry.

It seems there is still a great deal of physical oil "floating around" with demand rapidly falling don't hold your breath.

don't confuse oil being pumped out of the ground (saudi stores) and that being exported ..... more importantly, sooner rather than later any surplus will be mopped up, and known new wells will have to be opened up ..... and hand in hand will probably come more M&A activity of companies with proven reserves of real oil rather than just blue sky

cynic you know as well as we do at the moment supply exceeds demand OPEC realise that and will reign back their production as best they can . In the meantime the price will fall as recession bites.

the price is still very significantly "manipulated" (can't think of a better word) by sentiment and/or speculative position, just as it was when it reached $147 with guarantees by some that it would and must assuredly go to $200

cynic so you agree in the short term the price will fall?

on balance probably, though not sure where to or for how long, and cerftainly not in a straight line .... for certain, when it swings the other way, it will do so very quickly and sharply indeed ..... sentiment etc will see to that

cynic can't agree it will turn only slowly when the recession is seen to have gone.

halifax,

Can you post figures that show that supply is exceeding demand? (and not the US-specific weekly inventories).

All the articles i've seen about global supply and demand, if you go through the figures, do not add up. Ie the OPEC cuts, even those made so far, exceed the drop in demand.

halifax - will agree to disagree on that ..... the converse surely would be that the price only fell because of the actual or imminent recession .... now that is patently not true

martin - one can never really trust those stats, not least because so many producing countries covertly break ranks ..... saudi reckons it only costs them about $3 a barrel to extract from existing wells, but they have no real interest in exporting below $50/60 as that is where their internal budget is pitched ..... extraction in most other countries is very very much more expensive, and they may well not be able to genuinely afford to export at below $50/60 (or more) ... if they do so, it will be for cashflow

martin12 please remember OPEC accounts for only 40% of global production, that is OPEC's problem.

if you add russia to opec, now how much or world production? ..... confess i thought opec's slice was considerably greater than 40%, but certainly saudi has far and away the lowest production costs of any country

cynic do you honestly think Putin would want to join a bunch of squabbling arabs?

that was not the question asked ..,. though one might ask with equal validity as to whether opec would welcome him either!

We have had yet another "bubble" in oil, what next is a far more important question?

for oil? ..... reckon it will settle at about $60/70 by say mid year, and would fully expect a surge in M&A activity before sp of the likes of TLW, HOIL and PMO gets out of hand

one of the anomalies of oil is the huge discount of the front month wti. Morgan etc may predict $25 perhaps at expiry but it is a little academic when the following month may be $10 higher

nymex $36.65 falling.

buy at about $35 is my (aided) guess

thats some tumble today! looking to get out of future spreads and buy ETF's - so is this the main one for going long on crude - just wondering how the price relates to spot price and is this linked to WTI/Nymex or what?

etf's certainly far better for long term holding, no roll over's price erosion etc. and isa benefit.Futures good for playing one off each other