Opened a new position in these after finding them to be extremly cheap, and also cheap going forward. P/E now circa of 12, forward P/E to end of june 2005 is 8.7.

Broker Numis is forecasting full year pre tax profit of 8.8 million and Earnings per share of 30.3p, stunning growth

Highlight Of results Interims 31/12/2004.

Profit of 4.45 million before goodwill amortisation and tax
(2003: 3.15 million)
Earnings per share 15.1p before goodwill amortisation (2003: 14.3p)
Interim dividend increased to 7.25p per share (2003: 7.0p)
Brightview acquisition completed
Current trading encouraging

Director Speak

The Company enjoyed a good half-year to 31 December 2004. Cash generation was
strong and as before a high proportion of this cash is being returned to
shareholders as dividend.

In the six months to 31 December 2004 Invox made a profit of 4.45 million
before goodwill amortisation and tax, compared with 3.15 million for the six
months to 31 December 2003. This includes a contribution of 1.26 million from
Brightview, the Internet Service Provider acquired on 9 August 2004.

During the period the postal promotions business continued to demonstrate its
resilience with a broadly maintained operating profit of 3.19 million (2003:
3.15 million). Most of the six months under review showed year-on-year profit
improvement but December, though still profitable, was not as strong as December
2003. Once again, margin improvements arose from a deliberate and increased
focus on our own highly responsive database, and a reduction in less profitable
third party campaigns. Further new promotional and prize innovations, such as
portable CD players, have allowed us to maintain a fresh and attractive
offering. A number of test SMS-based promotions have been conducted during the
half year, but with inconclusive results. Current trading is encouraging and we
continue to seek new ways of leveraging our database.

As an independent Internet Service Provider, Brightview has a relatively large
customer database of over 300,000 users, the great majority of these accessing
the internet via dial-up rather than broadband. It appears inevitable that
dial-up business will dwindle over the years, and management is therefore making
strenuous efforts to establish Brightview as a significant presence in the
broadband marketplace. We are looking to convert a significant proportion of our
Brightview customers to broadband as soon as possible, as well as attracting new
customers. We are now able to offer a range of broadband services, making us
more competitive than before. We are therefore promoting the offering in a
number of ways. Our experience to date has been that converting existing dial-up
customers to broadband is proving much easier, and more profitable, than
recruiting new users from advertising. Brightview's broadband customer numbers
have increased from around 3,600 at the time of the acquisition to almost 10,000
now, and the rate of increase has accelerated in recent months. Shareholders
should be aware, however, that while broadband customers are potentially a very
valuable asset in the longer term, in the short term they contribute relatively
little to profit, owing to the initial costs of connecting a broadband customer
and supplying a modem.

Outlook.

Further progress is now likely with its database of over 400,000 mobile phone users, and Brightview will be a challenge converting customers from dial up to Broadband. The core mailed promotion business which is highly cash generative should see the company realise Broker forecasts.

Highly Speculative but derd cheap. As a high beta and hopefully we should see a re - rating .

DYOR

cheers GF.

The year to June, which had also seen the postal disputes help flatten out the growth curve - recorded earnings per share were 30p per share against just 27p. But this was accomplished as sales receded from 18 million pounds to under 15 million pounds, reflecting a rise of over 10 points in the gross margin as the competitions were concentrated on targeted databases - mainly the company's own, culled from a customer base of 3.5 million, including 400,000 mobile phone users. But if Invox was that concentrating on the more intensive cultivation of its own soil (which I for one welcomed) the broadening and extending of the business had not been ignored either, as in July the company raised 15 million pounds at 300p to acquire Internet Service Provider Brightview Group. Brightview, whose 300,000 active customers had enabled it to table a pre goodwill- amortisation operating profit of 4 million pounds in the 54 weeks to April 2004.

Cross-selling and telecommunication purchasing power are expected to give new opportunities to what are two already successful businesses, as the drive for broadband.

cheers GF.

Dont sell off, the markets getting a shock taste of reality. There will be a bounce in the US.

cheers GF.

Shrewd Snapshot: Barnard buys more Invox
Published: 07:33 Tuesday 01 March 2005 TOTAL PAGES: 1
By: Algernon Craig Hall, Secret Buying Correspondent Back To Latest News Printable Version









Citywire AA-rated fund manager Michael Barnard has increased his holding in postal promotions company Invox.

Shrewd Barnard bought 1.2 million shares to take his funds' combined holding to 2.4 million or 11.3% of the 55.4 million company.

Last month the company (INX) reported strong interim numbers but its house broker Numis commented that attempts to juice the group's database had not been as successful as previously hoped.

The company has attracted a number of shrewd investors thanks to the combined attractions of growth and a hefty dividend.

The shares closed down 1p yesterday at 206.5p.

cheers GF.

Price: Does anyone understand why the price of Invox continues its downwards path?
The outlook appeared excellent when I bought in earlier this year, has something changed or does the company have a hidden problem or what?

Not sure dave, i'm with you on that one. The sp has got to start turning the corner soon, and when it does i think i'll get some more. Do you know when results are out?

Snaylor,
Interim results came out early February (summary posted earlier by goldfinger). Just had another look at them, and the P/E ratio is ~ 15.3 using the earnings before amoritisation of goodwill, but rises to ~ 25.4 when the goodwill is taken into account. Maybe the P/E including the goodwill effect is the one to use, and looks too high. Any thoughts?

Results were ok-dividend high. what is the matter here?? Since I bought in the sp has fallen off a cliff! anyone have any ideas?

Perplexed myself MP. It like hamworthy yesterday fantastic contract news and it moves up about 5p. Seems to me we are all better off being in cash until the winter comes and then we MAY be able to get a decent market in stocks.

cheers GF.

Cheers GF I agree.

Any chance for recovery?

I hear Winnies tipped it over on tips.com so there might be a lot of new buyers moving in.

cheers GF.

I hear Winnies tipped it over on tips.com so there might be a lot of new buyers moving in.

cheers GF.

Could be worth a punt if it breaks 120p and holds. As for Winnie tipping it ... not exactly bril is he !

Hes been doing rather well Dil Im told over the last 2 year. Must admit his style a few years back was rather bland to say the least, but Im told hes now using buy up to targets and then placing holds on.

He tipped Northern Pet at 2.4p now its around 14p so cant be that bad.

cheers GF.

Yeah and he tipped MMD at 180p , etc , etc.

Got a bit more respect for him lateley though , as a person not as tipster , for taking the time to reply to a couple of emails I sent him.

This share needs to show some relative strength before I would be tempted but good luck gf.

Cheers Dil.

Trading statement released today and figures don`t look as bad as an earlier warning suggested.A nice move up today and i`m sure given the market capital and historical dividend of this share that it has been oversold.
DB66

I would agree DB. Still holding myself.

cheers GF. Patience just patience.

cheap at this level werent they tipped by tom Winifrith/T1ps last week ?
plenty of exposure will come from it forward p/e of 4 so long way to go IMHO
cannot see 300p again but could test 150-180p in short term even before results

any guesses on the divi payment if one at all ???
IMHO between trading stmtns may-july debt reduced by 1m+ and profit assumptions increased too so cannot see them not paying something but expect it to be below last year

Comments from T1ps

Invox (INX) today released a year end trading statement which was really not as bad as one might have feared. The shares soared by 21% to 110.5p on the news. The company says that on the basis of unaudited management accounts its pre-tax profits will be at least 7.4 million for the year to June 30th (up from 6.8 million) while earnings will be at least 25p, down from 30.1p.That may look okay but you may remember that the first half pre-tax profit was 4.45 million and earnings were 14.3p so clearly the second half was not that great.

These numbers are stated pre-any writedowns and my guess is that the value of Brightview will be written down. Moreover the final (14p ) dividend still looks less than secure - based on second half trading. This will be reviewed based upon current trading when finals are published in September. Net debt is down to 3.5 million which is encouraging and Invox says that trading on both divisions is "satisfactory." Invox says that the strategic review has "thrown up a number of interesting possibilities." Again, my guess is that the Internet arm will be sold so clearing debt and leaving a company perfectly capable of paying a dividend of 10p per share or more. That is why I still rate the stock as a "speculative buy" at up to 130p.