Proselenes
- 10 Dec 2010 13:31
.
kimoldfield
- 09 Sep 2011 08:56
- 1904 of 5221
:o)
gibby
- 09 Sep 2011 12:46
- 1905 of 5221
cheers kim - i hope you have a good reason for being late!! lol
only joking of course - thanks for that - and yes dc will be proud
have a good day
blue here again and rmp flying
news getting nearer daily - i would not wanna be outta rrl or rmp over the weekend
:-))))))))
kimoldfield
- 12 Sep 2011 07:39
- 1906 of 5221
On a volume of just 545000 RRL finished level again on the ASX. I will now hand the reigns back to DC as it is my turn to go on holiday! I hope your week goes well.
skinny
- 12 Sep 2011 08:05
- 1907 of 5221
3 monkies
- 12 Sep 2011 08:53
- 1908 of 5221
Hope you have a great holiday Kim and thanks for your early morning reports.
kimoldfield
- 12 Sep 2011 11:10
- 1909 of 5221
Thanks 3M!
gibby
- 12 Sep 2011 21:17
- 1910 of 5221
cheers kim - have a very good holiday
3 monkies
- 13 Sep 2011 17:01
- 1911 of 5221
Welcome back DC and hope you had a good holiday and a rest from this lot. Unfortunately as you can see no great guns!!! On the contrary quite the opposite. Just another waiting game.
dreamcatcher
- 13 Sep 2011 17:04
- 1912 of 5221
Great to be back 3 monkies. Then the waiting game we will play.I thought it would be worse with the likes of greece etc. The 20 or so barrels at TT is a start.
dreamcatcher
- 13 Sep 2011 17:05
- 1913 of 5221
Well done to kimoldfield.
dreamcatcher
- 13 Sep 2011 17:20
- 1914 of 5221
dreamcatcher
- 13 Sep 2011 21:32
- 1915 of 5221
City analysts cheer Range Resources' progress
Mon 2:40 pm by Giles Gwinnett Moreover, the company said a second step-out well had also been completed on Morne Diablo and the results indicated extremely attractive resistivity oil sands across 215 feet City analysts hailed the progress and potential of Range Resources (LON:RRL, ASX:RRS) today as the firm revealed it had successfully completed the first two wells of its 21 well programme in Trinidad.
Barney Gray at Old Park Lane Capital rated the company's shares a "buy" targeting a price of 27 pence, while FoxDavies analyst Shahin Amini also gave the stock a "buy" recommendation targeting a price of 24 pence.
The company's shares are currently trading at 12 pence each.
Range said it was "extremely pleased" after the first well on the Morne Diablo block in Trinidad hit a higher than expected net pay zone.
This well, a replacement to an old one, is now producing high quality oil at a test rate of 20 barrels per day and higher rates could be achieved depending on pump selection, said the firm.
Moreover, the company said a second step-out well had also been completed on Morne Diablo and the results indicated extremely attractive resistivity oil sands across 215 feet.
Plans for this well's completion have been lodged for approval with Trinidad authorities and the aim is to have it producing within the week.
"Range has successfully completed the first two wells of a 21 well programme on the Morne Diablo Block in Trinidad.
"The first well delivered a higher than expected net pay and the second is anticipated to go on production within a week. With a third well expected to commence imminently, we believe that Range is making good progress to its target output of 1,400 1,800 bopd from this initial programme, said analyst Gray, at Old Park Lane Capital.
Range is focused on finding hydrocarbons in Puntland, Somalia, the Republic of Georgia, onshore Texas, USA and Trinidad.
In Georgia, the firm said drilling had restarted at the Mukhiani well after a blowout preventer was installed and it was now at 1,339 metres. Total depth of 3,500 metres is expected later this month.
The firm also told investors today that it had extended its equity line of credit facility for an extra 30 million with First Columbus/Duchess.
Range said it was fully funded for its exploration activities with existing cash and around 15 million due from the exercise of `in-the-money' options due to expire before the end of 2011.
Thus, in the event of a discovery on any of Ranges exploration wells being drilled in the coming months, the firm will have immediate access to funds for any appraisal operations if necessary.
In a note, Gray added: "... with an aggressive drilling programme focusing on four fronts, the likelihood of a discovery and further appraisal work implies the need for additional funds."
Meanwhile, analyst Amini, at broker FoxDavies, commented: "Range has an extensive drilling programme underway with four high impact wells expected to be drilled by the end of this year.
"These wells will test exploration plays with an aggregate potential of 1 billion barrels of un-risked resources net to the company. The companys exploration risk profile is balanced by a portfolio of producing and development assets onshore USA and Trinidad."
The analyst added that the broker's core net asset value NAV estimate (producing and development assets) is 8.4p per share and its risked NAV (including risked exploration NAV) is 23.8p per share and near term drilling activities in Georgia and Trinidad had the potential to unlock resources with an un-risked upside of 48p per share or about four times the current share price.
"We believe that the recent moves into onshore USA and Trinidad are positive developments in diversifying the asset base, presenting investors with a more balanced portfolio that now includes production and near-term development opportunities," added the FoxDavies note.
dreamcatcher
- 14 Sep 2011 06:03
- 1916 of 5221
RRL held on the ASX
dreamcatcher
- 14 Sep 2011 15:45
- 1917 of 5221
dreamcatcher
- 15 Sep 2011 06:18
- 1918 of 5221
RRL held on the ASX
dreamcatcher
- 15 Sep 2011 20:07
- 1919 of 5221
Thanks to miracle boy on interative investor ii
All these conspiracy theories about MM's playing with our share price and large shareholders pumping up the price on false information to make a profit is just daft.
Fact of the matter is there are too many shares in issue to sustain a decent rise in SP based on the information we currently have. To even move the shareprice 1p the valuation needs to go up by 18 Million.....This is not going to move unless we get monster rates from Trinidad and a really cracking CPR with UC targets, discover in either Georgia or Puntland or we get taken over.
Compare that to RMP>>> For RMP to move 1p their valuation only needs to rise by 1.5 Mill (less than 10x RRL) So as we get closer to TD in Georgia and as we spud Puntland expect some big rises in RMP but not so much Range.
IMO the next big price mover for Range will be the TT CPR including UC targets. This is information the market is unaware of so could cause a surprise! The value of Trinidad though will take a while to be evident in the SP because its going to take a while to get to full production. Based on this are we better to be in RMP for G and P and then come back to Range to realise the value of TT??
Range has a Trump card though and that is Puntland offshore! If you believe the talk on RUM this could also surprise the market.......
Hindsight is a wonderful thing!
dreamcatcher
- 16 Sep 2011 06:14
- 1920 of 5221
Range up 2.78% on the ASX
dreamcatcher
- 17 Sep 2011 18:15
- 1921 of 5221
Need the report on Trini
dreamcatcher
- 18 Sep 2011 07:21
- 1922 of 5221
http://www.fox-davies.com/media/414996/rangecoverageupdate12sept2011.pdf
Range Resources Ltd
(RRL LN)
12 September 2011
p7
Valuation
We have set our target price of 24p close to our total risked NAV of 23.8p. This has been calculated for a fully diluted base
of approximately 2.0 billion shares outstanding, accounting for the recent share placement and outstanding share options.
The risked NAV is the total value of all risked assets and adjusted for the corporate costs, cash reserves and carried interest,
if applicable. Our valuation excludes the drilling subsidiary acquired as part of the recent Trinidad acquisition. The value of
risked assets is calculated using discounted cash flow modelling based on our assessment of risked resources for individual
assets. Please refer to Appendix 1 for our valuations summary. Exhibit 4 presents the valuation waterfall chart for the
Company and Exhibit 5 presents the breakdown of the risked resources.
Our main assumptions include a flat oil price deck of US$85 per barrel; flat US$4.50 per Mcf of gas in the US; US$35 discount
for the condensate sales per barrel; US$-GBP exchange rate of 1.6; 10% discount rate for the US and Trinidad assets, 12.5%
for Georgia and 15% for Puntland.
The production and development assets:
1. North Chapman Ranch (NCR) Our primary valuation for NCR is based on the independent 2P reserve estimate
of 6.4MMboe. We have also included a risked appraisal / development upside based on the 3P estimate of
15.8MMboe; we have applied 50% Probability of Success (PoS) to the additional 9.4MMboe under the 3P
category, which we understand will be tested by the next two wells in the drilling programme. We believe our
risked factor of 50% is prudent considering the appraisal scope of the wells.
In the valuation case for the 2P reserve base we have assumed that total remaining production net to the Company
is about 6.1 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe). Our modelled annual production profile for all three
products is 5% of the total reserves in 2011 increasing to a peak of 19% of the reserves in 2014 before a decline out
to 2023. We have accounted for a gross field capital expenditure of approximately US$20 million over a three year
period. Our operating expenditure cost assumptions range from US$0.6 per boe at peak production to US$6.70
per boe towards the end of field life. Our discounted cash flow modelling yields a net US$15.60 per boe after
royalties and taxation.
Our valuation for NCR is 3.0p per share for the 2P reserve base and 2.3p per share for the risked 3P upside.
2. East Cotton Valley we have assumed gross field reserves of 2.6MMbbl or 0.6MMbbl net to the Company. Our
annual production profile is modelled as 9% of reserves in 2012, increasing to a sustained 14% from 2013 to 2015
before declining out to 2021. This equates to a maximum daily production (gross) of approximately 900 bopd. We
have applied a field (gross) capital expenditure of US$4.8 million and operating costs ranging from US$2.0 per boe
to US$25 per boe as the production declines towards the end of field life.
We have applies a PoS of 50% considering the recent drilling results with the unexpected water ingress and the
appraisal nature of the operations.
3. Trinidad (production and development) Our core NAV for Trinidad is based on the independent 2P reserve
estimate of 4.8MMbbl. We have also accounted for the upside of 2.1MMbbl included in the 3P estimates; we
expect that through in-fill and step-out drilling SOCA will increase the recoverable reserve base. We have
accounted for US$100m of development expenditure over the field life going out to 2025. Our operating
expenditure assumptions range from US$7 per barrel at the peak of production to US$34.6 per barrel at the tailend of production.
Our core valuation for the Trinidad production and development assets is 2.6p per share.
The exploration assets:
1. Trinidad (exploration) Our valuation for the exploration upside in Trinidad is based on the potential of the deeper
Herrera formation. There have been extensive in-house technical studies and a number of prospects have been
identified with an aggregate upside of 100MMbbl of recoverable resources. As there is currently no independent
review of the work carried out we have decided to only account for 50MMbbl of prospective resources based on
the top prospects that are more likely to be drilled. Although there is production from this formation in
neighbouring blocks, there are still risks associated with the reservoir and trap. We have applied PoS of 20% and
NAV per boe of US$14.1. Our risked NAV for this play is 4.5p per share.
2. Georgia (Blocks VIA and VIB) The Company and its partners have prioritised six drill-ready prospects with an
aggregate 728MMbbl of OOIP. In our valuation we have assumed a recovery factor of 30%, which yields about Range Resources Ltd
(RRL LN)
12 September 2011
p8
88MMbbl of recoverable oil resource net to the Company. We have modelled the development of a generic field
with capital cost assumption of US$4 per barrel and operating cost assumption of US$3 per barrel. Our production
profile assumes production within 1 year of discovery spanning a period of 20 years with peak production during
third and fourth years at 10% of recoverable reserves.
Based on these assumptions and the PSC terms we estimate a NAV of US$9.1 per barrel. Our risked exploration
NAV for this asset is 5.0p per share.
3. Puntland, Somalia Our valuation is based on prospective recoverable resources of 620MMbbl and 290MMbbl for
the Nugaal and Dharoor blocks respectively. These figures are based on the independent work carried out by GCA
in March 2011. We have applied PoS of 2.5% and 5.0% for Nugaal and Dharoor respectively. These factors
incorporate 10% geological chance of success and our very conservative discount for political and security risks.
Our risk discount factor for Nugaal is higher because we believe that the territorial dispute between Puntland and
Somaliland could impact the operations in this specific region more. We have applied a NAV of US$6.2 per barrel
based on our earlier work on these assets to yield a risked exploration NAV of 3.0p per share and 2.8p per share for
Nugaal and Dharoor respectively.
In estimating our core NAV of 8.4p we have assumed a cash position of US$17 million, US$15.8m in proceeds from the
exercise of the in-the-money options expiring by the end of this year and corporate overheads of US$25 million over a 5-year
period; our net corporate adjustment is 0.3p per share.
dreamcatcher
- 18 Sep 2011 13:13
- 1923 of 5221
Pete I think has 60 million to play with now. I wonder what next. Hmmmmmmm