http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

well put by BBBS on iii

------

No reason for disappointment here folks! The MOST important thing is that ExxonMobil is now 'officially' confirmed beyond any doubt. AMAZING!!

And don't be too quick in discounting the Shaikan 'connections'. The Shaikan structure DEFINITELY overlaps into Al Qush - maybe as much as 25% of Shaikan is in that Block.

And keep in kind that all 6 of these announced Blocks are FULL Block allocations. This in itself does not discount that EM may have also taken minority interests in some other already allocated Blocks, i.e. by way of Third Party BIR (Back in Rights). As others have mentioned, the correct way of announcing such allocations - if there are any - would be the prerogative of the other current participants in those Blocks. I absolutely do NOT discount the Independent article yet. RNS tomorrow anyone?

It's interesting to see that three of the Blocks - Al Qush, Baeshiqa and Qara-Hanjeer - all sit within areas that were no doubt previously "Disputed Territories" (between KRG and ICG). So there has also been movement towards agreement in these areas as well.

I am humongously encouraged!

GLA,

BBBS

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-12/iraq-government-says-agreement-made-with-kurds-on-oil-contracts.html

roll on monday - shell were also involved but declined......basically the iraq gov cannot afford not to agree and does not want anymore of what has happened previously - another view / more data:



ExxonMobil-KRG deal: A puzzling move at a critical time
Posted on 12 November 2011. Tags: Ahmed Mousa Jiyad; Oil in Iraq; KRG; ExxonMobil; West Qurna1; Oil and Gas Law

The news of ExxonMobils venture by signing 6-locks PSCs with KRG could have very serious ramifications as the move is rather puzzling, it occurred and became known at critical time, and consequently cornered the Iraqi government off-guarded. The company has been negotiating with KRG, directly or through intermediaries, for many months leading to signing agreement(s) in October. International sources say the Iraqi government was notified on the matter, and the Ministry of Oil had issued three letters to the company stressing that, according to regulations of the central government, any company which signs deals with the KRG wouldnt be allowed to work in the center and south of the country, meaning ExxonMobil would risk its (with Shell) Wes Qurna 1 giant oilfield. Also reliable source says, the six blocks were originally offered to Shell and ExxonMobil three each, but Shell declined the offer, and KRG gave ExxonMobil a 48 hours ultimatum before the deal was finally signed in London.

It is expected the Iraq council of Ministers meet urgently to discuss the matter and decide on the fate of the West Qurna 1 contract with ExxonMobil.

What motivated ExxonMobil to make this move despite the warning from the Ministry of Oil is a matter the company alone can answer, others could only speculate. But why a company that has the highest contract- in barrels-term, and has the leading position in a major water injection project would risk these two lucrative projects and, possibly any other future opportunities? Only time will tell!

The timing is also critical and unfavorable for the Iraqi government. American forces are, and would be fully, leaving the country by the end of the year. The government is obviously preoccupied with the implications and consequences of this withdrawal at least from security perspectives. Another factor of inconveniency is the recent call to declare Salahudin governorate as region with possible spillover to other governorates/ provinces. A third factor is the negotiation that has been going on between the government and KRG regarding the oil and gas law, would be impacted by this move. Fourthly, the domestic political climate among and between the main political factions and blocks within the government and the parliament are at its low. Finally, the PM, Mr. Nuri AlMaliki is about to embark on a crucial visit to the White House to usher new phase of relationship between the two countries. Surely this action by ExxonMobil would be a distracting item on the discussion table.

But what can the government do? It has limited options but none is easy or convenient, though the relationship with ExxonMobil might get sour, or even deteriorate rapidly.

At one extreme, the government keeps quiet, lets it go and ignores the three warning letters, which its ministry of oil sent to ExxonMobil.

This would be interpreted as tacit acquiescence of what ExxonMobil have done. Other companies could follow-suit rapidly. The implication is that government loses face with regards to its declared blacklisting policy, and practically put an end to such a policy. Two types of contracts (e.g., service contacts and production sharing contracts-PSCs) became reality. The oil and gas law would recognize this reality, and all KRG s PSCs would be recognized and legalized easily. Other governorates would claim similar status for independently concluding their own petroleum upstream contracts, with big and small foreign oil companies occupying the drivers seat. The final outcomes would be no national petroleum policy, internal resource-conflicts, collapse of central authority and the beginning of disintegrated Iraq.

The other extreme is firm stand based on disqualify and terminate. The government could first disqualify ExxonMobil from the forthcoming fourth bid round, and immediately invoke the Termination clause under Article 8.1 (a) for committing a breach of a material obligation of this Contract. The material obligation in the contract is the adherence to Law as defined in item 46 of article one.

The disqualification and termination would lead to exclude ExxonMobil from any future business opportunity such as the participation in the exploration bid rounds, the common water injection project and any other activity. The termination clause would, according to sub article 37.4-.8, lead eventually to an international arbitration, which could take time to reach a verdict. Consequently, the development of WQ1 would suffer a blow (but not suspend production) until either an amicable solution with ExxonMobil is reached or the arbitration process ends. In both cases there would be lost time and revenues, and could be compensation if the arbitration case is lost.

On the diplomatic front, this option could sever the bilateral relation with the US, as it is inconceivable that ExxonMobil takes this action without States Department knowledge or even blessing. The US might retaliate by muddling through internal politics and destabilize the country even further. But this is a risky endeavor for the US to follow!

On the other hand this option would consolidate unified petroleum policy, bring to the fore of national attention the sovereignty issue, provide strong support for the governments in its negotiation with KRG, particularly with regards to oil and gas law and prevent IOCs from muddling in the internal politics. In other words the outcomes of this option could be the exact reverse of the first tacit acquiescence option.

Both options are difficult, risky and could have negative consequences. But the government has to act as representative of an independent sovereign state and protect the integrity and interests of the country.

Ahmed Mousa Jiyad,

Iraq/ Development Consultancy and Research,

Norway.

12 Nov 2011

mou-jiya@online.no

Sun Nov 13, 2011 4:46pm GMT

* Gulf Keystone sees interest in asset sale

* CEO says company well-funded, not for sale

ARBIL, Iraq Nov 13 (Reuters) - Kurdistan-focused oil explorer Gulf Keystone said it has interest for its 20 percent stake in the Arki-Bijeel block in the semi-autonomous region, but any sale was still in the preliminary stages, an executive said.

The block in Kurdistan is estimated to hold around 2.4 billion barrels of oil and is operated by Hungary's MOL .

"We've got a lot of interested parties, but we have not identified a purchaser," Gulf Keystone CEO Todd Kozel told Reuters. "We haven't gone to the bidding process yet. It's in the data room process, data gathering and identifying interest."

Kurdistan is enjoying a surge in investor interest. The semi-autonomous region in the north of Iraq has enjoyed more stability and security than the rest of the country where violence remains a stubborn risk.

"Kurdistan is the hottest play in town in the oil business," Kozel said.

Still, Baghdad and Kurdistan's capital Arbil have a long-standing dispute over who controls oilfields and land. The central government calls Kurdistan's deals with foreign oil companies illegal.

Kozel said Gulf Keystone was already fully funded to build a pipeline and would be "very well funded" for their budget with the asset sale they plan.

But the executive said there were no plans to sell the company.

"Gulf Keystone is not for sale," he said. "We have not been approached by any company making an offer." http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL5E7MD0KP20111113

Zen's summing up of this mornings presentation.

==

ZENGAS - 13 Nov'11 - 11:26 - 126646 of 126652

Valuation imo becoming very clear.

GKP Conference Presentation today.

*** SLIDE 6 ***

Shaikan recoverable **reserves** estimate at 3.5 b bls to 4.4 b bls.

Discounting TKI and using only GKPs net 51% -

This would give GKP a net 1.785 b - 2.24 b bls recoverable from Shaikan (before any further upside).

To put that in context -
DNO rereseves 355 mmbo (11m which are in Yemen).
Rak valuation re DNO at 9.50 NOK = $1.6B.
Petroila 10 NOK offer for DNO shares = $1.7b.
Vallares offer for Genel with 356 mmbo reserves = $2.1b.

On that basis GKPs reserves could be 5 - 6.3 times greater than DNO or Genel.

If one was to use the average of DNO ($1.7b) and Genel valuations ($2.1b) = $1.9b the potential valuation x 5 = $9.5b (or x 6.3) = $12b. = 6.60 - 8.33 per share. (using 900 m shares fully diluted/options included).

If you were to only use the Genel valuation the valuation parameter would be 7.30 - 9.20 (and we were toild that bidders for Genel had offerred more)..

Sheik-Adi, Berbahr, Bechme, Akri-Bijeel and the other prospects are still entirely un-accounted for.

I see Spencer Freeman has tweeted again in the last 30 minutes that "a 900p is waiting in the wings for GKP for the sale of their Shaikan licence".

Doing the math so to speak certainly makes Sandunnes (8) and S Freemans (9) highly credible and doing the sums on what GKP have presented in their latest presentation today, the figures definitely stack up imo.

excellent volumes as expected - 200 to 250 today looking good

what a wonderful day :-)))) gla

200 breached :-)))))))))))))))

this is good - most interesting is the sneaky ii buying - very well pleased with that - wonder what cob voulume will be today

2 here we are.....not sure where the top is....never known an explorer with such a price...1.5 billion market cap....

Got a big grin on my face today gib, first for sometime hope it lasts. gla.

no great surprise that sp is having a bit of a breather at the all-time high ...... i would hope or even expect it to burst through that with decent momentum within the next few days, unless we have the usual weekly market dump

Taken profits.....in two goes this morning....not right at the peak but nevermind...pleased with the result.....just not sure where the top is...and this is a hefty increase in the last few days...might pull back to the 180's now....nothing keeps on going up forever.....

glad to hear it bb well done

well done rf - taken some myself also - good sense - see where we go now

think we seen bottom today now - looks like buyers returning for tomorrow - i mean who would wanna be outta gkp tomorrow morning?! lol!! last 30 minutes should be very interesting given whats happening - wonder where end today?

yeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

apparently therehave been so many queries to gkp rumour is there may be an announcement of a sort - we shall see

a day that started with much promise, but which turned into a very damp squib

Trust you cyners......lol