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Northern Petroleum (NOP)     

barclay - 27 Jun 2006 14:50

Star Energy is currently testing the Avington well in Southern England.
This will take about 4 weeks an RNS news feed said, it started on 25/06/06.

I hope it proves positive so we get a good share price rise!
We are 5% holders but i'm not sure how much in pence potential this is worth for the company.

Another good reason to hold on to this share.

TopAnalyst - 10 Jan 2011 14:41 - 191 of 286

Interesting that NOP just had a 911 trade.

http://stocktraderschat.com/tradingforum/general-discussion/1336-mm-signals.html

TopAnalyst - 10 Jan 2011 21:59 - 192 of 286

Anyone believe in coincidences? or history repeating itself? I ask because on looking back again at NOP RNS I see these.

22 January 2009 - Shell Farmout Completed

14th January 2010 - COMMENCEMENT OF OFFSHORE SICILY SEISMIC 3D SURVEY


If they stay consistent then we would get Sicily news this week or next week, at the latest the week after.

Food for thought!

TopAnalyst - 11 Jan 2011 10:43 - 193 of 286

Slight dip on profit taking today, but there is plenty of near term newsflow to get the SP through 140p towards next resistance of 160p.

Tullow spudding in Feb, not long to a spudding date announcement
MW1 testing to start soon, NOP may inform the market that the rig is on-site
Italy drilling decision is overdue, so could come in any time, even as I am posting this
More gas work in Netherlands, they not sitting on their hands there, for sure

TopAnalyst - 11 Jan 2011 12:23 - 194 of 286

Comment from the team at T1ps.com.

All news
Northern Petroleum - Markwells News
January 06, 2011

Northern Petroleum has announced positive news on Markwells Wood. This is clearly a commercial oil prospect. In itself it adds little to NAV ( maybe 3-4p per share). But it shows the potential on its other UK acreage which we know is for sale. I reckon that the price has just gone up from 10 million to 12.5 million and any such disposal, following on from the great news in Holland and Italy in December should accelerate the re-rating. I reject peer group based valuations of 165p - my own s-o-t-p valuation remains at c350p per share - and we own shares in the SF t1ps Growth Fund and continue to buy more

Tom Winnifrith

http://www.jpjshare.com/content/news/11-01-06/Northern_Petroleum_-_Markwells_News.aspx

hangon - 11 Jan 2011 12:37 - 195 of 286

As a LT holdr this "find" is good news, the cash will come in handy and any Euro Authorities can come and see what a good job they've done + local support, etc.
The only concern I have is the totals banded about. The Avingdon site has produced oil for 20+ years(?) and presumably they drain oil from the surrounding area....so isn't this just "another" tapping...? It doesn't stop NOP making money (Yippee!), but it is a sideshow IMHO to their Continental prospects. SP down a tad today, but will rise when the Ital. Auth. can agree on something....I think it's only a matter of "time" - This find will help the coffers meanwhile.
TA I think you suggested it adds to the potential UK site sale-values, yes I agree it confirms NOP can do the job themselves if the price isn't "right".

BTW, if anyone wants to find it take a flask and sandwiches, you can go past the gate and miss it. The approach photo is only visible after a walk and several twists in a nothing-special track protected by substantial gates. Yes, I've been there 2008. Most impressive environmental attention arround the site. (no comparison, so dunno what to expect). However, I was impressed and suspect locals would be also. I don't think going-there will teach you anything investment-wise... and the site is out-of-bounds.
However, it's good to see an AIM company doing what it says it will. Good-luck.

TopAnalyst - 11 Jan 2011 13:23 - 196 of 286

Just found a bit more research on the Zaedyus play that Tullow are drilling in Feb.

"The Zeadyus well that will be drilled by Shell with Tullow/Total in French Guiana (Feb) is a deep water well. Shell exercised their option from Tullow to become operator of that well. All three targets have very similiar seisemic charateristics to the Jubilee field in West Africa (Jaguar, Eagle & Zaedyus). Very similiar fan plays and Zaedyus is almost identical according to Tullow."

http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=OYL&t=LIST&m=29041651&l=0&pd=0&r=0


So the calculations I posed on 4th Jan are therefore further validated by the above.

"Tullow are drilling Guyana in Q1. The oilfield is expected to be similar to the nearby Jubilee field which is running at 58,000 bpd rising soon to 120,000 bpd. If Zaedyus production proves as good as Jubilee then NOP would gain the revenues on 725 boepd to 1500 boepd, a 31.5% to 65% increase on its production today."

TopAnalyst - 11 Jan 2011 13:27 - 197 of 286

hangon, it might not be connected to the sites any more, in which case it will not have been depleted and flow rate will be like the others had when they were first producing.

There is also the possibility that NOP hit a sweet spot at a fracture and get really good flow rates.

NOP need to get on with the testing and let the market know.

NOP did say that if they didn't get a good price for the UK assets they would keep developing them, in which case this well is just as important to revenues as it is to a potential sale of the assets.

TopAnalyst - 11 Jan 2011 13:33 - 198 of 286

Someone has Tullow down for drilling Zaedyus in Jan. They posted this yesterday.

http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/tullow-2011-drilling-program-and-results-52284/

TopAnalyst - 11 Jan 2011 13:53 - 199 of 286

Hoping for a Zaedyus spud date in this, if it hasn't already been announced by then.

Tullow "The Group will announce its full year Trading Statement and Operational Update on 20 January 2011"

http://www.slideshare.net/plsderrick/tullow-oil-plc-2010-interim-management-statement

TopAnalyst - 11 Jan 2011 14:09 - 200 of 286

Did anyone else notice Brent Crude is hovering around the $97 range? (US Light Crude is only $91-ish)

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=commoditiestypes&btn=allcomms&gid=EN

TopAnalyst - 11 Jan 2011 14:42 - 201 of 286

Woodland Trust opposes further South Downs oil drilling

11 January 2011 Last updated at 13:42

The Woodland Trust has vowed to oppose any further drilling at an oil well recently discovered under ancient woodland in West Sussex.

About 300m worth of oil has already been discovered by exploratory drilling at Markwells Wood in the South Downs.

Northern Petroleum said the site could yield nearly five million barrels of oil, and the results were encouraging.

The Woodland Trust said it feared the discovery could lead to further testing or extraction across the South Downs.

Christine Byrne, campaigns case officer for the woodland conservation charity, said it could "spell danger for other precious conservation sites".

Further tests
The Sussex Wildlife Trust has also expressed a similar concern that the ancient woodland should be protected.

Spokeswoman Janyis Watson said: "We would really question what the value of this amount of oil is in this location and perhaps even what the oil would be used for.

"Will it be used to make things that end up in landfill so that we are then arguing cases against more landfill sites?"

Northern Petroleum was given consent to test for oil in 2008 by West Sussex County Council, and began drilling last November.

The move was opposed by Chichester District Council, the South Downs Joint Committee and the Woodland Trust.

Last week, the company said it would be carrying out further tests to determine the site's potential.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-12161726

halifax - 11 Jan 2011 15:42 - 202 of 286

TA is that why NOP hasn't received any offers?

TopAnalyst - 11 Jan 2011 16:02 - 203 of 286

halifax, how do you 'know' NOP hasn't recieved any offers? and if so, how could it possibly have anything to do with news that only came out 30 minutes ago?

NOP put the sale process on hold because new prospective buyers arrived at the last minute. NOP are developing the UK assets regardless of whether a buyer is lined up or not.

halifax - 11 Jan 2011 16:09 - 204 of 286

TA if NOP has received offers then they would issue an RNS, news that there are strong objections to the development of this site are not going to encourage possible bidders, as regards NOP proceeding on their own it is a question of how much it will cost them in legal fees and management time.

TopAnalyst - 11 Jan 2011 16:21 - 205 of 286

halifax, they would not have issued an RNS if they had recieved an offer, as it is not an offer for the company it is a sale of assets for which there are several potential buyers. Only when a sale is agreed and the other potential buyers walk away would there be an RNS.

As for developing the assets, that is what they are doing. Just because these people say no drilling in the forest, that does not stop NOP drilling outside in the field, does it. Ever heard of directional drilling?

NOP got the permission to drill the well despite opposition from these people, do you think that now oil has been discovered that he gov't will not let them produce from it? There is no guarantee whatsoever that it will cost NOP anything in legal fees to get permission to produce.

Either way, the UK is not the big game for NOP, it is a simple cash generating machine which they can still sell for 10m(could have been 12.5m with MK1 included).

The big game for NOP is Italy, 8Bn+ barrels potential. 1.75Bn barrels in the first two targets. NOP's cut of the first two targets would value NOP at 945p per share at $85 per barrel. Q3 drilling expected(by Goldman Sachs)

In the meantime Tullow drilling Guyana in Feb is worth 33% to 65% on top of the current valuation if the oil there is as Tullow expect.

halifax - 11 Jan 2011 17:15 - 206 of 286

TA as we all know potential=pie in the sky!

ptholden - 11 Jan 2011 18:16 - 207 of 286

Won't stop him posting it all at least twice a day though Mr Halifax!!

TopAnalyst - 11 Jan 2011 21:30 - 208 of 286

halifax, the same 'potential' that nearly every other stock in the world is bought on????

Or are you one of these people that only buy blue-chips based on financial data on results????

If so then stick to that, because comments like the one you just posted are simply meaningless to other investors.

TopAnalyst - 12 Jan 2011 21:23 - 209 of 286

Brent Crude oil hits two-year high of $98

Rowena Mason, 19:34, Wednesday 12 January 2011
Oil hit a two-year high of more than $98 per barrel in London on Wednesday, as appetite for risk returned to the market.

Prices have been rising partially due to a leak in Alaskas main pipeline, which carries a sixth of Americas oil. Around 95pc of production from the regions North Slopes has stopped and the pipeline operator only re-started it on Wednesday at a lower than normal flow rate.

There are quite a few good reasons that could explain and verify the current high oil prices, says Myrto Sokou, analyst at Sucden Financial. The recent shut in the key Trans Alaska pipeline, forecasts about heavy winter conditions in the US North East, as well as strong equity markets, could provide further support to crude oil prices. It might be fairly soon that we can see the oil prices back to the $100 level.

However, experts added on Wednesday that the outages and cold US weather did not entirely explain the recent spike, especially given the $6 difference in European and US benchmark oil prices.

This has come about because the price of London oil, called Brent Crude, is rising faster than the price of US crude oil, known as West Texas Intermediate (WTI).

Brent is seen as a better marker of international demand than WTI, which is a landlocked crude stored far away from the coast mainly reflecting US demand.

Global (news) appetite for oil is growing. The US Department of Energy (JJE - news) raised its forecast to 88.02m barrels of oil consumption per a day from 87.78m estimated last month.

Speculators may also be targeting the London oil price, betting that the price will go above $100. Global hedge funds have pumped millions of pounds into oil futures pushing the number of contracts held by financial traders to a four-year high.

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/Brent-Crude-oil-hits-two-year-tele-2422867242.html

cynic - 12 Jan 2011 22:00 - 210 of 286

naughty hali-wali! .... you're behaving like your mentor here and you know it only aggravates TossA
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