Centamin “Back On Gold Output Target”
By Robert Tyerman
Being a pioneer in a country where the political regime can change abruptly has its perils, as Josef El-Raghy, the Australian financier who chairs Egyptian gold miner Centamin, has been learning the hard way of late.
Centamin is currently mining the 15 million ounce Sukari mine in the Sahara desert near the Red Sea, Egypt’s first major gold mine in modern times.
But it’s been a bit of a stop-go affair of late.
The London headquartered company is about to resume export shipments after suspending operations amid a welter of legal claim and counter claim over fuel payments, export licences and its very right to operate.
Centamin declares it believes it is still on track to hoist output 25 per cent this year to 250,000 ounces despite the interruption, with a doubling to 500,000 ounces in sight for 2015.
“By the weekend we should be back and running”, says Centamin spokesman Tony Davidson. “We still have a degree of confidence in our production guidance for the current year”, he adds.
Davidson does, however, suggest it would be helpful if the Cairo government could produce a mining code to govern the exploitation of Egypt’s mineral wealth, rather than relying as hitherto on adaptations of the system used for oil.
When the legal issues prompted Centamin to put Sukari on care and maintenance, investors saw the shares halve in a day to 27.7p. The company also warned of possible cash pressures at the same time.
The shares have since rallied to 43.25p, valuing the company at £476.3 million.
But that’s still a far cry from when the shares were challenging the 200p level not two years ago, and even from the 107p they stood at less than 12 months ago.
Centamin lifted pre-tax profits six-fold last year to US$182 million (£115 million) on turnover up 290 per cent to US$340.5 million. The market has been looking for £127 million pre-tax this year, rising to more than £200 million for 2013, provided normal activities are resumed and continue.
The company negotiated its original Sukari concession with the now-deposed regime of the autocratic and self-enriching Hozni Mubarak, and concede that that does it few favours in a country now ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood.
Centamin started to produce gold from Sukari in 2009, with no tax to pay but a 50-50 profit sharing agreement with the Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority (EMRA) that will be triggered once Centamin’s full investment, now US$700 million and expected to hit US$1 billion, has been recovered. There’s also a three per cent royalty on the property.
Under Egyptian rules, Centamin paid a below-market price for diesel fuel obtained from US group Chevron, thanks to a fuel subsidy it received in common with other companies in the country. Recently, things started to change.
First, the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC), part of the Ministry of Petroleum, said Centamin must, via Chevron, pay the full international diesel price , with no subsidy, thus raising production costs at Sukari from U$550 to U$700 an ounce. That was not comfortable, but was probably bearable against a gold price of US$1,695 an ounce.
Centamin claimed in court this was unfair, as it did not apply to other companies in Egypt, but was carrying on at Sukari. But then the authorities launched what it condemned as an “illegal” claim for some US$65 million (£41 million) , representing the total subsidy received between 2009 and 2012.
Meanwhile, a local campaigner sued the Egyptian government over Centamin’s original concession and it was alleged there was no proof it had secured the required document from the Ministry of Petroleum converting its original Sukari licence into an exploitation licence. Not so, said Centamin. “There was a copy sitting in our office in Alexandria”, recalls Davidson.
The EMRA has been very supportive, however, and after the suspension of work and exports from Sukari, the company subsequently sought to resume them, though nervous customs officials initially blocked that move.
Then EGPC waived its US$65 million retrospective claim, though Centamin expects the case over subsidy withdrawal could take months, and the company is resuming exports.
Davidson says Centamin does not detect any local or outside interests at work, seeking to take over Sukari. He blames instead post-Mubarak sensitivities and perhaps inadequate attention paid by the company to local media.
Centamin does have other interests, with exploration in Ethiopia and 15 per cent of Horn of Africa-focused Nyota Minerals. But for now a re-rating will depend on mending fences and clarifying arrangements in Egypt.
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