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The dollar dropped to a two-month low on a trade-weighted basis on Thursday as its sharp sell-off gained momentum after the Federal Reserves surprise decision to embark on a quantitative easing approach to monetary policy.
The announcement by the Fed on Wednesday that it would buy $300bn in long-term Treasuries surprised investors, who were expecting the central bank to wait and study the effect of previously announced measures to ease credit conditions.
Lee Hardman, of Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, said the aggressive expansion of the Feds balance sheet was likely to lead to further losses for the dollar. The dollars decline reflects both its diminished appeal as a store of value and reduced relative yield appeal, he said. The Feds shock-and-awe approach clearly marks it out now as the most aggressive central bank in its response to monetary easing, which should weigh on the dollar.
The dollar, which on Wednesday had its weakest performance against the euro since the creation of the single currency in 1999, fell further on Thursday.
By midday in New York, the dollar had fallen 1.5 per cent to $1.3725 against the euro, lost 1.7 per cent to $1.4555 against the pound, dropped 1.8 per cent to SFr1.1175 against the Swiss franc and eased 2.4 per cent to Y93.70 against the yen.
The dollars losses were most acute against the Norwegian krone. The krone, which was supported by rising oil prices and its growing haven status, rose 3 per cent to a five-month high of NKr6.3201 against the dollar and climbed 1.4 per cent to NKr8.6751 against the euro.
The dollar has attracted haven flows in recent months as investors flocked to the relative safety of the US currency as stock markets tumbled. This deleveraging has made it one of the best-performing currencies so far this year.
However, Neil Mellor, of Bank of New York Mellon, said that while the Feds action meant the dollar no longer possessed the haven appeal it had, currency investors had not necessarily entered a new world.
If we get another sell-off in stocks then we could still see people scramble for the dollar, he said.
Indeed, Marc Chandler, of Brown Brothers Harriman, said the Feds action was not necessarily a game-changer for the dollars strength. Our big macro-view was that the de-leveraging which we believe has been the big driver of the foreign exchange market would fade and be replaced by a return of anticipated growth trajectories [among major economies], he said.
Thus, while the dollar might suffer in the short-term, Mr Chandler said, once markets realised that the aggressive Fed action was likely to deliver a recovery in the US more quickly than for other economies, the currency would rise.
Over the slightly longer term, we continue to believe that the aggressiveness of the US policy response dramatic inventory correction will be rewarded with an earlier recovery than in Europe and Japan, he said.