.

Range up 2.78% on the ASX

Need the report on Trini

http://www.fox-davies.com/media/414996/rangecoverageupdate12sept2011.pdf

Range Resources Ltd
(RRL LN)
12 September 2011
p7
Valuation
We have set our target price of 24p close to our total risked NAV of 23.8p. This has been calculated for a fully diluted base
of approximately 2.0 billion shares outstanding, accounting for the recent share placement and outstanding share options.
The risked NAV is the total value of all risked assets and adjusted for the corporate costs, cash reserves and carried interest,
if applicable. Our valuation excludes the drilling subsidiary acquired as part of the recent Trinidad acquisition. The value of
risked assets is calculated using discounted cash flow modelling based on our assessment of risked resources for individual
assets. Please refer to Appendix 1 for our valuations summary. Exhibit 4 presents the valuation waterfall chart for the
Company and Exhibit 5 presents the breakdown of the risked resources.
Our main assumptions include a flat oil price deck of US$85 per barrel; flat US$4.50 per Mcf of gas in the US; US$35 discount
for the condensate sales per barrel; US$-GBP exchange rate of 1.6; 10% discount rate for the US and Trinidad assets, 12.5%
for Georgia and 15% for Puntland.
The production and development assets:
1. North Chapman Ranch (NCR) Our primary valuation for NCR is based on the independent 2P reserve estimate
of 6.4MMboe. We have also included a risked appraisal / development upside based on the 3P estimate of
15.8MMboe; we have applied 50% Probability of Success (PoS) to the additional 9.4MMboe under the 3P
category, which we understand will be tested by the next two wells in the drilling programme. We believe our
risked factor of 50% is prudent considering the appraisal scope of the wells.
In the valuation case for the 2P reserve base we have assumed that total remaining production net to the Company
is about 6.1 million barrels of oil equivalent (MMboe). Our modelled annual production profile for all three
products is 5% of the total reserves in 2011 increasing to a peak of 19% of the reserves in 2014 before a decline out
to 2023. We have accounted for a gross field capital expenditure of approximately US$20 million over a three year
period. Our operating expenditure cost assumptions range from US$0.6 per boe at peak production to US$6.70
per boe towards the end of field life. Our discounted cash flow modelling yields a net US$15.60 per boe after
royalties and taxation.
Our valuation for NCR is 3.0p per share for the 2P reserve base and 2.3p per share for the risked 3P upside.
2. East Cotton Valley we have assumed gross field reserves of 2.6MMbbl or 0.6MMbbl net to the Company. Our
annual production profile is modelled as 9% of reserves in 2012, increasing to a sustained 14% from 2013 to 2015
before declining out to 2021. This equates to a maximum daily production (gross) of approximately 900 bopd. We
have applied a field (gross) capital expenditure of US$4.8 million and operating costs ranging from US$2.0 per boe
to US$25 per boe as the production declines towards the end of field life.
We have applies a PoS of 50% considering the recent drilling results with the unexpected water ingress and the
appraisal nature of the operations.
3. Trinidad (production and development) Our core NAV for Trinidad is based on the independent 2P reserve
estimate of 4.8MMbbl. We have also accounted for the upside of 2.1MMbbl included in the 3P estimates; we
expect that through in-fill and step-out drilling SOCA will increase the recoverable reserve base. We have
accounted for US$100m of development expenditure over the field life going out to 2025. Our operating
expenditure assumptions range from US$7 per barrel at the peak of production to US$34.6 per barrel at the tailend of production.
Our core valuation for the Trinidad production and development assets is 2.6p per share.
The exploration assets:
1. Trinidad (exploration) Our valuation for the exploration upside in Trinidad is based on the potential of the deeper
Herrera formation. There have been extensive in-house technical studies and a number of prospects have been
identified with an aggregate upside of 100MMbbl of recoverable resources. As there is currently no independent
review of the work carried out we have decided to only account for 50MMbbl of prospective resources based on
the top prospects that are more likely to be drilled. Although there is production from this formation in
neighbouring blocks, there are still risks associated with the reservoir and trap. We have applied PoS of 20% and
NAV per boe of US$14.1. Our risked NAV for this play is 4.5p per share.

2. Georgia (Blocks VIA and VIB) The Company and its partners have prioritised six drill-ready prospects with an
aggregate 728MMbbl of OOIP. In our valuation we have assumed a recovery factor of 30%, which yields about Range Resources Ltd
(RRL LN)
12 September 2011
p8
88MMbbl of recoverable oil resource net to the Company. We have modelled the development of a generic field
with capital cost assumption of US$4 per barrel and operating cost assumption of US$3 per barrel. Our production
profile assumes production within 1 year of discovery spanning a period of 20 years with peak production during
third and fourth years at 10% of recoverable reserves.
Based on these assumptions and the PSC terms we estimate a NAV of US$9.1 per barrel. Our risked exploration
NAV for this asset is 5.0p per share.
3. Puntland, Somalia Our valuation is based on prospective recoverable resources of 620MMbbl and 290MMbbl for
the Nugaal and Dharoor blocks respectively. These figures are based on the independent work carried out by GCA
in March 2011. We have applied PoS of 2.5% and 5.0% for Nugaal and Dharoor respectively. These factors
incorporate 10% geological chance of success and our very conservative discount for political and security risks.
Our risk discount factor for Nugaal is higher because we believe that the territorial dispute between Puntland and
Somaliland could impact the operations in this specific region more. We have applied a NAV of US$6.2 per barrel
based on our earlier work on these assets to yield a risked exploration NAV of 3.0p per share and 2.8p per share for
Nugaal and Dharoor respectively.
In estimating our core NAV of 8.4p we have assumed a cash position of US$17 million, US$15.8m in proceeds from the
exercise of the in-the-money options expiring by the end of this year and corporate overheads of US$25 million over a 5-year
period; our net corporate adjustment is 0.3p per share.

Pete I think has 60 million to play with now. I wonder what next. Hmmmmmmm

Found this on interactive investor ii, quite near my thinking now or though you never can guess what can happen to the sp. Thanks to miracle boy -


It will take more than just a discovery in Georgia and Puntland to get us to 50p imo.

There's going to be 2 Billion shares in issue come christmas with options expiring and a 50p SP means a 1 Bill Mcap.

If our first target in Georgia hits we'll prove up say 30% of 115 mmbbls of which Range owns 40%. Thats a total of 13.8 million barrels net to Range. If the first target in puntland hits thats going to be about 21 Million barrels to Range.

To put it into perspective Dana Petroleum had 223 Million barrels of 2P reserves and production of 50,000Bopd and were taken over for 1.87 Billion.

Like Pearlexporter said "This really is a marathon and not a sprint" which is completely true. All this talk of 50p by christmas is absolute nonsense and will never happen. If you're looking for a 'get rich quick' share, Range is not that.

Put these in the bottom drawer and wait for a takeover, somewhere in the region of 1 2013 is my guess.

i think to say fd have been a tad conservative is being rather kind to them!! miracle boy is correct in some respects - the best value sp here will be realised over a longer period thats for sure
gl

Put this up as may be of interest as rrl own 5% of this company -



Tangiers Petroleum reveals Zeus prospect's huge potential
Wednesday, September 07, 2011
Tangiers Petroleum has appreciably extended the area of the mapped area of the project, after the latest seismic interpretation of the Zeus and Little Zeus prospects Shares in Perth-headquartered Tangiers Petroleum (ASX:TPT) surged over 11 per cent overnight as it revealed the potential for a huge increase in prospective resources for the Zeus prospect on the Tarfaya block offshore Morocco.

In a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange, the group, which is 5.7 per cent owned by AIM-quoted Range Resources (LON:RRL, ASX:RRS), announced that it has appreciably extended the mapped area of the prospect, after the latest seismic interpretation of the Zeus and Little Zeus prospects.

According to Tangiers the latest 2-D seismic interpretation has produced a significantly larger structural closure than that previously mapped, which gives further support for the scope and potential of the prospects. The result effectively leads to a significant increase in Zeus prospective size.

Additionally the seismic interpretation has also identified six new prospects on Tangiers 75 per cent block.

(We are) delighted with the latest seismic interpretation results for the Tarfaya Block, offshore Morocco.

The upgrade in the areal extent of Zeus and the identification of six additional prospects is expected to provide a significant boost to our existing prospective resource base in Morocco once NSAI completes its evaluation of the Zeus, Little Zeus, and other prospects.

The next phase in this process will be to mature identified Cretaceous leads to prospect status. This is all part of a broader effort to strengthen and expand the Companys exploration portfolio in the region, said chairman Mark Ceglinski.

In the statement Tangiers told investors that Zeus is now interpreted as being larger than each of its four previously identified prospects - Trident, TMA, Assaka, and La Dam. Of these four Trident is the largest. Trident has previously been assessed, by consultants Netherland Sewell and Associates (NSAI), as having an un-risked best estimate prospective resource of 423 million barrels of oil.

Including the other three Tarfaya prospects but not including Zues - NSAI came up with a best estimate prospective resource of 870 million barrels and a high estimate of almost 5 billion barrels.

Tangiers said it will now hire NSAI to produce an independent probabilistic evaluation of prospective resources for Zeus, Little Zeus, and the additional six prospects at the Upper Jurassic. In addition, multiple leads recognized within shallower Lower Cretaceous intervals are being matured into prospects and prospective resource volumes will be determined in the upcoming months, it added.

Last Friday Range Resources announced that it would invest A$2 million into Tangiers. Range is acquiring 5 million shares at 40 cents each, which gives it a 5.7 per cent stake in the group.

oh yes tangiers pet was a very good investment imo - value already up since buy in!
cheers

I think a few million of the 60m in Petes hands will buy a greater percentage very soon.
High estimate of 5 billion barrels, looks huge.Tangiers pet looks to be going places.

Tangiers petroleum is fast on the rise. Look foreward to it dual listing here, unless rrl
makes the other 95% purchase. lol

exactly - and good not to have all eggs in one basket - rrl hs a very good pf

& never say never!!

i feel a ...............

yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

Can either DC or gibby explain to me as to why RRL was going great guns at 25p for a minute or two in March I think and then after the 2 AXS enquiries they just went down and further down.

Hi 3 monkies, I can only speak for my views. That at that time I think the sp got over
hyped. Was the company worth 25p with no revenue or oil coming in, no not in my opinion. The drills have been delayed which have not helped. Like I have said before
(its the same for every share I know) look at the world events that have hit the stock exchanges. Without listing them, the book makers would have given you terrific odds
and no doubt laughed you out the bookies had you placed a bet. The markets are pricing in nothing now, ie spudding. The 1st well successful announcement for TT and we drop 5% in the sp(a laugh)The markets did not like the 17p placement either. The company I feel is far better to grow as wells are drilled and hopefully oil found. We all have our own goals for rrl. Mine will be Puntland sea or perhaps an eventual takeover, who knows. Europe is still very bumpy, this will not help. The sp is under valued now,
but as you can see in a previous post with the amount of shares is going to take some moving. Move i feel it will, if all comes right. I would much rather see the sp climb on merit ie successful drills and revenue then hype. I am still very happy to be invested here, with the company underpinned. Also the directors share options expire December,so they will be keen to get the sp moving as much as us. Avery exciting company to be invested in for the future not tomorrow.

hi 3ms - yep dc has covered off some relevant points - but there is not one reason - it is a multitude of reason and it is not just affecting rrl - i have been through this type of situation before and held my nerve and reaped the rewards very much - and a couple of examples - a few years ago i had asos at just under 30p - now look at it, blnx i had sub 20p a few years ago again take a look now rrr frations of a pence look at where it went - still doing ok now considering the recent 6p pl. and many others - this is a buyers dream imo - i am seeking weakness right now - but to add to dc's paragraph - yes economic climate, people panic selling at loss, some simply took profits and moved on, sp manipulation - yes that does happen still is see it every day, auto sell trades cause more panic, people preferring oil producers right now - we have texas already but the big stuff to come (dont for get cash back there if you want it prob next year), et cetera - if you can afford to sit tight imo do so - it will come good this is the fun of being an explorer and producer - gl

oh btw some iis are quietly accumalating - in time look out for holdings rns

and keep a close eye on aul this week starting tomorrow - drop way over done tomorrow - ii am seeking bottom prior to a softish bounce imo

Thanks gibby. You see the panic selling on your screens more than perhaps we do at home.
Also this share and other oil ones are a gamble early on. In these times investors have moved money to save havens ie gold, food shares and cash,etc.

Just need a big strike rns and investors will notice rrl again. More comfortable here then any of my other shares.

no probs dc - and believe you me - rrl is not forgotten - it is on the radar of many as is gkp and some others

i would not worry about rrl unless they duplicate des and turn oil into water with repeated success & have a run of dusters which i very much doubt - i do not even worry about puntland because some high ranking armed forces (what they have any how!) & political figures backing this and promised protection both on & off shore - this project goes to the top of the country out there - they are desperate for the cash - no pirate or tribe will stop this