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Centamin Egypt : Worth waiting for... (CEY)     

pthwaite - 20 Sep 2004 10:27

CEY is a gold mining company operating in Egypt. It was ordered by the Egyptian Government to stop drilling pending a legal dispute brought against the company by a government minister.

Since then, the whole Government cabinet was replaced a few months ago and the minister now in charge of Mining is believed to be positive on Western investment in the country. CEY are pushing for this minister to allow them to continue drilling ASAP; investers are waiting....patiently.

As soon as the company gets the go-ahead to continue drilling, the share price will move north; CEY has plenty of gold in this mine and it is (apparantly) the case of "raking" it out rather than drilling for it!

Check them out...worthy of a punt.

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=CEY&Si

cynic - 20 Dec 2012 17:33 - 1922 of 2354

you are truly bonkers at times, verging on the paranoid, usually after lunch when if it is not the drink speaking, then perhaps your medication has worn off

Chris Carson - 20 Dec 2012 18:01 - 1923 of 2354

Oh Dear, and it was all going so well :O)

magicjoe - 20 Dec 2012 19:11 - 1924 of 2354

yes Chris

do you remember when he was saying " we are friends again "?

maybe he thought that, but I DO NOT FORGET ... not forgive some times

You were right I did not bother to repply as I did say earlier, my time was over at PTC
I put my point with 100% right, so time to exit
One has to know when to retire at the TOP.

cynic - 30 Nov 2012 14:25 - 461 of 467
MJ may like this ..... sp is right at the top of bollinger band ..... does that mean pull back is imminent or merely that bollinger band will keep adjusting upwards as/when/if sp keeps ticking ahead?

Chris Carson - 30 Nov 2012 15:22 - 462 of 467
he probably thinks you are taking the Pxxx cynic :O)

cynic - 30 Nov 2012 15:43 - 463 of 467
i don't think he will .... we have kissed and made up of late, and his chart interpretation is often interesting and even good sense, especially for short-term momentum trading

cynic - 20 Dec 2012 21:18 - 1925 of 2354

CC - c'est la vie! .... as i have said before, when MJ is sensible, he is interesting and worth reading ..... when he's on another planet as now, i'm afraid he's best left there

Chris Carson - 20 Dec 2012 22:08 - 1926 of 2354

Oh well never mind guys, tis the season of good will, hope you both have a merry xmas and a happy new year.

cynic - 20 Dec 2012 22:17 - 1927 of 2354

off to B-on-A tomorrow for our customary christmas jolly with family and a core of friends ... same hotel for 23 years now!

magicjoe - 20 Dec 2012 23:05 - 1928 of 2354

Centamin “Back On Gold Output Target”
By Robert Tyerman

Being a pioneer in a country where the political regime can change abruptly has its perils, as Josef El-Raghy, the Australian financier who chairs Egyptian gold miner Centamin, has been learning the hard way of late.

Centamin is currently mining the 15 million ounce Sukari mine in the Sahara desert near the Red Sea, Egypt’s first major gold mine in modern times.
But it’s been a bit of a stop-go affair of late.

The London headquartered company is about to resume export shipments after suspending operations amid a welter of legal claim and counter claim over fuel payments, export licences and its very right to operate.

Centamin declares it believes it is still on track to hoist output 25 per cent this year to 250,000 ounces despite the interruption, with a doubling to 500,000 ounces in sight for 2015.

“By the weekend we should be back and running”, says Centamin spokesman Tony Davidson. “We still have a degree of confidence in our production guidance for the current year”, he adds.

Davidson does, however, suggest it would be helpful if the Cairo government could produce a mining code to govern the exploitation of Egypt’s mineral wealth, rather than relying as hitherto on adaptations of the system used for oil.

When the legal issues prompted Centamin to put Sukari on care and maintenance, investors saw the shares halve in a day to 27.7p. The company also warned of possible cash pressures at the same time.

The shares have since rallied to 43.25p, valuing the company at £476.3 million.
But that’s still a far cry from when the shares were challenging the 200p level not two years ago, and even from the 107p they stood at less than 12 months ago.

Centamin lifted pre-tax profits six-fold last year to US$182 million (£115 million) on turnover up 290 per cent to US$340.5 million. The market has been looking for £127 million pre-tax this year, rising to more than £200 million for 2013, provided normal activities are resumed and continue.

The company negotiated its original Sukari concession with the now-deposed regime of the autocratic and self-enriching Hozni Mubarak, and concede that that does it few favours in a country now ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood.

Centamin started to produce gold from Sukari in 2009, with no tax to pay but a 50-50 profit sharing agreement with the Egyptian Mineral Resources Authority (EMRA) that will be triggered once Centamin’s full investment, now US$700 million and expected to hit US$1 billion, has been recovered. There’s also a three per cent royalty on the property.

Under Egyptian rules, Centamin paid a below-market price for diesel fuel obtained from US group Chevron, thanks to a fuel subsidy it received in common with other companies in the country. Recently, things started to change.

First, the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC), part of the Ministry of Petroleum, said Centamin must, via Chevron, pay the full international diesel price , with no subsidy, thus raising production costs at Sukari from U$550 to U$700 an ounce. That was not comfortable, but was probably bearable against a gold price of US$1,695 an ounce.

Centamin claimed in court this was unfair, as it did not apply to other companies in Egypt, but was carrying on at Sukari. But then the authorities launched what it condemned as an “illegal” claim for some US$65 million (£41 million) , representing the total subsidy received between 2009 and 2012.

Meanwhile, a local campaigner sued the Egyptian government over Centamin’s original concession and it was alleged there was no proof it had secured the required document from the Ministry of Petroleum converting its original Sukari licence into an exploitation licence. Not so, said Centamin. “There was a copy sitting in our office in Alexandria”, recalls Davidson.

The EMRA has been very supportive, however, and after the suspension of work and exports from Sukari, the company subsequently sought to resume them, though nervous customs officials initially blocked that move.

Then EGPC waived its US$65 million retrospective claim, though Centamin expects the case over subsidy withdrawal could take months, and the company is resuming exports.

Davidson says Centamin does not detect any local or outside interests at work, seeking to take over Sukari. He blames instead post-Mubarak sensitivities and perhaps inadequate attention paid by the company to local media.

Centamin does have other interests, with exploration in Ethiopia and 15 per cent of Horn of Africa-focused Nyota Minerals. But for now a re-rating will depend on mending fences and clarifying arrangements in Egypt.

minesite/centamin-back-on-gold-output-target

HARRYCAT - 21 Dec 2012 11:39 - 1929 of 2354

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=CEY&SiStockMarketWire.com
Canaccord Genuity has upgraded its recommendation on gold miner Centamin (LON:CEY) to "speculative buy" from "hold" after the company resumed operations at its Sukari mine. The City broker has increased its share price target to 90 pence from 40 pence. Broker Forecasts consensus data highlights that the City analysts remain extremely positive on the stock with 67 per cent having a buy rating on Centamin with the remainder at neutral / hold. Analyst Dmitry Kalachev said: "We expect a short suspension of operations to have relatively small impact on production this and next years. We expect production this year to be 235koz (just marginally below 250koz guidance). Having resumed exports, working capital should start to rebuild and the company should be in a position to continue financing Stage 4 from the cash flow. Following resumption of operations we reinstate our Speculative Buy (from hold) recommendation and increase our target price to 90 pence (from 40 pence)."

skinny - 22 Dec 2012 09:16 - 1930 of 2354

Egypt's constitution seen passing in referendum

CAIRO | Sat Dec 22, 2012 3:20am EST

(Reuters) - Egyptians voted on a constitution drafted by Islamists on Saturday in a second round of balloting expected to approve the charter that opponents say will create deeper turmoil in Egypt.

After a first round last week in which unofficial results showed 57 percent of those who voted approved the constitution, the opposition cried foul, saying a litany of alleged abuses meant the first stage of the referendum should be re-run.

But the committee overseeing the two-stage vote said their investigations showed no major irregularities in voting on December 15, which covered about half of Egypt's 51 million eligible voters.

Islamist supporters of President Mohamed Mursi, who was elected in June, say the constitution is vital to moving Egypt towards democracy two years after Hosni Mubarak was overthrown in a popular uprising. They say it will help restore the stability needed to fix an economy that is on the ropes.

If the basic law is passed, a parliamentary election will be held in about two months.

magicjoe - 27 Dec 2012 09:49 - 1931 of 2354

Oh well, it seems the passing of the law, give way to the optimistic future for the country businesss though not yet the political one though calming down alot since.

Maybe is that the reason for CEY bouncing back a bit today on a very low volume everywere

p.php?pid=staticchart&s=L%5ECEY&p=0&t=10
moneyam intraday chart not so good as the share price today, but that is live overhere

mnamreh - 29 Dec 2012 15:36 - 1932 of 2354

.

cynic - 30 Dec 2012 15:29 - 1933 of 2354

this extract from a much longer article will help sentiment even without Tanker's gentle massaging hand ....

Prime Minister Hisham Qandil said on Sunday that Egypt wants to resume talks with the International Monetary Fund in January on a $4.8-billion loan frozen this month because of political tensions and unrest.
"We have invited (the IMF) to resume talks during January," Qandil told a news conference in Cairo.
He said the sum involved was "small," but "its value is in the sign of confidence it gives to the Egyptian economy," which he admitted was in difficulty although talk of bankruptcy was not in order.

mnamreh - 02 Jan 2013 10:20 - 1934 of 2354

.

kernow - 02 Jan 2013 10:58 - 1935 of 2354

now I'm confused. 17 Dec was the date CEY gave as resumption of shipments and presumably this happened and payment was made since the subsequent resumption of operations was conditional on the cash flow. Is the 18th Dec another shipment or has the original shipment not been made?
As usual with CEY news flow from them is pathetically poor.

Balerboy - 02 Jan 2013 11:02 - 1936 of 2354

it's only 11am and hermans post deleted already.,.

cynic - 02 Jan 2013 11:05 - 1937 of 2354

yes, he is very dull ..... why he bothers to post something and then delete, goodness knows

kernow - 02 Jan 2013 11:08 - 1938 of 2354

Different shipment of 400kg according to Reuters.

HARRYCAT - 02 Jan 2013 11:33 - 1939 of 2354

Concerning mnamreh, I think it's all to do with a post he made quite a while ago which many of us disagreed with. He now has a persecution complex coupled with anxiety and confidence issues. Occasionally I copy & paste his posts just to rock the boat a little, but .....takes all sorts to make a world!!!

cynic - 02 Jan 2013 11:52 - 1940 of 2354

he should take the view of the jews who know and accept that not only are they the Chosen Race, but also deserve to be prosecuted :-)

HARRYCAT - 02 Jan 2013 11:55 - 1941 of 2354

....or even persecuted???? !!!! ;o)
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