http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=20111116070000P17C1

BG increases stake,from an earlier post.


niceonecyril - 06 Nov 2011 10:11 - 1859 of 1939

Of interest from the 3i's board.

MrA has posted on iii now too



Hello all,

I spoke with Baillie Gifford on Wednesday at their Edinburgh H.Q. Bailey Gifford currently hold a total of 28.5 MM GKP shares, they topped up recently with 15 MM around the same time that M&G topped up too. I have attempted to speak to Baillie G previously on a number of occaisions but they are brutally abrupt and refuse to discuss anything when the GKP words crop up - even partially related topics are not entertained. I got slightly luckier this week speaking to Stuart Dunbar there, the only information I gleamed however from Stuart is that Baillie Gifford are holding GKP on behalf of their Client (not clients plural) just...their Client he added.

Hmmm, sometimes a low sp is representative value to an acquiring purchaser and I wonder if this could be history repeating itself again when around 2 years ago Baillie Gifford undertook stake building in Dana Petroleum prior to KNOC's Takeover. During 2009 & 2010 Baillie Gifford bought heavilly into Dana Petroleum exceeding the holding disclosure threshold level, they continued to buy and add Dana's shares to their portfolio up untill February 2010 even when Dana's share price touched 11 per share.

Baillie G continued to add Dana whils't many other's steered away at that time and questioned both Dana's growth potential AND the improbability of a potential company Takeover.

Please note the doubter's comments below:

November 17th 2009 - FT.Com: ....."Traders have questioned the likelihood of a buyer emerging for Dana, given its North Sea assets are unlikely to appeal to a sovereign buyer and its African exploration prospects would be a poor match for a utility".

Less than 10 months later - this was announced:
September 2010: Dana Petroleum finally agree to an offer of 1.8bn (18 per share) from KNOC, for their 223 million barrels of oil reserves. This represented a 59% Premium to it's pre bid value.

KNOC who at the time held over a 30% shareholding in Dana - they finally persuaded 64% of Dana's shareholders to opt for the certainty of cash in the hand rather than the Management's promise of growth in the future. They really didnt have much choice after major shareholder's Schroders and BlackRock sold their holdings to KNOC.

The T/O price was eventually agreed over a 4 month period - with Baillie Gifford actively and vocally aiding in the final bid-battle target value of Dana.

As far as GKP and II's are concerned we have M&G, Baillie Gifford, and Capita who have all increased their GKP share holdings of late.

We have witnessed the M&G and the Kuok holdings update, and now that Baillie Gifford have breached the 3% holdings threshold level coupled with the amended bye-laws it would be good to see GKP issue a few new and up-to-speed disclosure holdings RNS's.
In all the excitement of Sh4 maybe GKP have forgotten to inform us.

Maybe Baillie G or to be more specific (their 28.5 MM Client) have found a loophole and have GKP split within 2 totally seperate divisions / holdings thus coming in under the radar and negating the need for notification. .....Either way from the many resulting phonecalls - they are certainly a protective and tight lipped lot !


Anyways back on earth or Kurdistan to be more precise:
On the Discovery side, .....oil shows on Ber Bahr hopefully due anytime soon. Fire up the news quattro Tony H and team, we'll gladly grab on to your coattails for the ride.

TD iminent if not already on Sh4.

OIP figs for Bekhme assisting our working interest sale there - come on MOL 12.8% of a lot is STILL A LOT !

Lastly, and hence the heading North x2 - the spudding of Sh5 earlier this week is into new and defining territory. As well as being a colossal step out Sh5 is situated approx 16 km north / north east of SH-1.

Back in June an alert and receptive analyst on the Kurdistan field-trip jollies picked up on a important and pertinent factor highlighting the "more pronounced extent" to both Shaikan & Sheikh Adi on each of the block's Northern formations.
The northern aspect of each anticline is more pronounced than it's current drills - which so far have only targetted the southern aspect's on each block's anticline. This indicates the carbonate would have been submitted to greater stress during its formation - with the high likelihood of increased levels of natural fracturing, and by implication yielding a higher Recovery Factor / higher oil-flow rates.


Good luck all,

MrAverage1

Many thanks for your usefull info.please keep it coming.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/87b4dbe8-107f-11e1-8010-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1duSV9l1N

if you've got some spare cash, then this is probably a good time to tuck into a few more of these ...... sp has fallen in sympathy with shell pulling out of the region, but of course the one is nothing to do with the other

Have a look at TRP...I know it's a minnow.....but the graph looks set for a recovery....

no thanks! .... this isn't a time to be piling into amoeba blue-sky companies

Come on....just a teeny..weeenny...trade...(little voice)...come on...

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Exxon Mobil Corp.'s (XOM) controversial deal to explore for oil in Iraq's Kurdish region will undoubtedly change the politics of the industry in a positive way, John Gerstenlauer, chief operating officer for Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (GKP.LN), said Thursday.

"There is no way that a player the size of Exxon can do what it has done and not change the dynamics," Gerstenlauer said at the Oil Council conference in London. "At the end of the day, it has to be positive for Kurdistan."

Exxon Mobil last week became the first of the major international oil companies to enter Iraqi Kurdistan.

The move has prompted threats from the Baghdad government, which has long said contracts between the Kurdish government and oil companies are invalid, and that ExxonMobil could lose its licenses in southern Iraq if proceeds with the deal.

ExxonMobil's entry into the region shows that the industry has confidence that oil contracts with the Kurdish government will be honored, despite Baghdad's protests, said Gerstenlauer. "It's brought an element of credibility to them," he said.

ExxonMobil's entry, and the prospect that more major oil companies will follow, is also likely to trigger, "a wave of consolidation," Gerstenlauer said.

"If the big boys come in and all [oil license] blocks were taken, they're going to buy stuff," he said. The smaller companies that currently dominate the Kurdish oil sector, "are going to be bought up," he said.

"There's a good chance we'll get bought," he said, adding that Gulf Keystone hasn't yet had discussions with any company that could afford to buy it.

John Gerstenlauer, COO of Gulf Keystone Petroleum, tells Proactive Investors that a full appraisal of the Shaikan oilfield in Kurdistan will be complete on 2012. The current estimates range from 1.9 to 18 billion barrels of oil. John says Gulf Keystone probably does not have the appetite to go it alone and become a major oil company.

Deal Possible Between Iraq, Kurdistan and ExxonMobil on Oil Exploration Contract

By Pierre Bertrand

After several days of loaded proclamations, a deal may be in the offering between ExxonMobil, the Kurdish regional government, and Iraq's central government, in relation to an oil exploration contract the company signed with Kurdistan that the central government calls illegal.

Officials from Kurdistan and the central government met in Istanbul, Turkey to try to work out an agreement. It's not yet known if one has been struck.

Speaking to Reuters on Thursday, Deputy Prime Minister Ross Nouri Shawis said he doesn't believe the central government will likely cancel existing contracts including ExxonMobil's, which grants the company access to the 8.7-billion-barrel West Qurna field in that country.

Because of an on-going dispute between Baghdad and Kurdistan's relationship with foreign oil companies, Iraq's central government hinted Wednesday that it will follow through with threats to cancel ExxonMobil's contract, after it was made known that the U.S. oil company signed an exploration deal with the regional government.

"Generally, there is a majority who wants to resolve this problem, but of course there are other anti views, and this is normal with any topic," Shawis told Reuters.

======================================================================
Cheers Spikey
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/13d2ef50-11c7-11e1-9d4d-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1e3Ouxhyv

November 18, 2011 10:54 am
Trip report: The future of oil in Kurdistan
By Javier Blas in Erbil, northern Iraq

I have spent the last few days touring the oil-rich semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan in northern Iraq, visiting oil fields and interviewing the regions officials and foreign executives. It is boom time for Kurdistan, which optimists hope could soon produce more oil than some members of Opec. As I am leaving, Kurdistan is celebrating the arrival of ExxonMobil , the first supermajor to enter the territory to explore for oil.
But the future will not be a simple trajectory. Here are my observations on the outlook for the region:

Exploration success. The oil and gas map of Kurdistan five years ago was largely blank. Today, dozens of oil fields dot it as companies discover hydrocarbons in commercial quantities in eight of every ten wells they drill. But drilling is not as easy as it appeared a few years ago due to the complex geology of the region and budgets are over-running by more than a third in some cases.
Lots of promises, but a tough reality. The Kurdistan Regional Government expects that production will reach 1m barrels a day more than double the current output of Ecuador, the smallest member of the Opec oil cartel by 2015, up from less than 200,000 b/d currently.
Yet, the future production depends on a political agreement between the KRG and the federal government in Baghdad to approve the long-awaited Iraqi petroleum law, which has been delayed since 2007. While an interim agreement allows for limited exports, which could run at 175,000 b/d next year, companies will be reluctant to invest heavily to lift output towards the 1m b/d target until a political agreement allows the passage of the petroleum law. The KRG and Baghdad say that the legal text will be done by the end of 2012 at the latest, but cynical oil executives in Erbil note that both sides have repeated the same message for the last five years.
The arrival of Big Oil: Five years ago, only a few small companies ventured into the region. Today, the nametags at a recent oil and gas conference in Erbil read like a whos who of the industry. The pioneers, including DNO, an Oslo-listed small oil company, privately owned Genel Enerji of Turkey, and London-listed Gulf Keystone are still there; but new entrants are arriving, including big companies such as Hess and Marathon of the US, Repsol YPF of Spain, and OMV of Austria. Moreover, Exxon, has just become the first supermajor to sign a contract to explore for oil in the Kurdistan. And, say oil executives, diplomats and regional officials, other supermajors could soon join the worlds largest oil company.
The impact of the arrival of Exxon is unclear. Optimistic oil executives say that it could force Baghdad to accept the KRGs demands to develop its own industry, but others say that could sour relationships between Kurdistan and the federal government, delaying indefinitely the approval of the petroleum law. The arrival of another supermajor Chevron of the US, Total of France and Eni of Italy are the names most frequently mentioned could give the KRG the upper hand, however.
The time for M&A. Most of the territory open for exploration has already been snapped up. So new entrants have only two routes: doing a so-called farm-in agreement, whereby a company buys a stake in a field or exploratory area in exchange for financing, or buying existing companies. The KRG, which by necessity backed small companies at the very beginning, would now prefer to see a consolidation in the sector that leaves fewer and bigger players.
After the arrival of Exxon, the market is valuing the current players at much higher multiples, so expect multi-billion dollar deals. Oil executives in Erbil talk in particular about two deals: Gulf Keystone, which could be bought by a supermajor seeking a quick entry; and a potential merger of DNO and Genel Enerji.
Turkey is the new friend. Five years ago, Ankara branded some of the most senior KRG officials as terrorists. Today, Turkish diplomats see Iraqi Kurdistan as a source of energy to power the countrys rapid economic growth. Ankara wants to buy natural gas from Kurdistsan for power generation. Moreover, Turkey wants to consolidate Ceyhan as the oil port of the eastern Mediterranean. The port is already the end of the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP) and the Baku-Tiblisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline. Ankara would like to see another oil pipeline most likely to low quality Kurdish heavy oil reaching the port and, potentially, a natural gas pipeline from Kurdistan feeding an LNG plant. Ankara and Erbil even dream that the Iraqi Kurdistan could supply natural gas to the Nabucco pipeline.
The Kurdish boom towns. Erbil, the political capital of the Iraqi Kurdistan, is entering an oil boom. The city of 1m people, which still lacks a good hospital, has seen the opening of its first luxury five-star hotel and another three are under construction. Oil executives fly in and out with airlines offering new routes each month. But while money is pouring in, the region has yet to develop services to benefit from it, importing everything from equipment to food. Costs are rising fast too. Housing prices are rocketing and salaries in the oil industry have doubled in the last five years. And with more than 40 companies elbowing for space in Erbil and the region, retaining competent staff is becoming a problem. Local political commentators are already warning that the region, as many others in Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, could see the blessing of oil turnin into a curse.

Shahrestani rocked by waves of his own making
19/11/2011 09:42
Baghdad, Nov.19 (AKnews) - It is inappropriate for Hussein Shahrestani, Deputy Iraqi Prime Minister, to run office in the Iraqi state due to his behavior and mentality which may encourage Kurdistan Blocs Coalition (KBC) to call for his impeachment, a KBC spokesman said today.

"By his behavior, Shahrestani has proved he is a person not fit to run a key office in the Iraqi state. He has created crises between Erbil and Baghdad and today he is trying to create more troubles," KBC spokesman Muayyad Tayyeb said.

Shahrestani believes neither in federalism nor in a new Iraq, "therefore there some ways to question him inside the House of Representatives."

Tensions between the Kurdistan Regional Government and Baghdad tightened in August as Baghdad passed the controversial Oil and Gas Bill in the Council of Ministers in the absence of Kurdish ministers. It granted exclusive authority over natural resources to the federal government. The bill has been referred back to the Council for reconsideration.

Last week Shahrestani warned international oil companies to stop working on oil fields in Kurdistan or their work on Iraqi wells would be suspended. "Supermajor" Royal Dutch Shell was forced to withdraw from Kurdistan to protect a $7 billion USD (8,000 billion IQD) public-private partnership with the Iraqi government and Mitsubishi.

The oil contracts of Kurdistan were made without consulting Baghdad - a step that Baghdad regards as "unconstitutional". Kurdistan maintains the contracts are not against the constitution.

Mr. Tayyeb warned "the Kurdistan Regional Government will not idly by stand and tolerate Shahrestani's behavior. The position Erbil may take could create a new crisis with Baghdad as the political process in passing through a difficult situation."

RB

LH/JS/AKnews

http://www.aknews.com/en/aknews/2/273255/

Perhaps TH is considering a farm in??

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-2062385/CITY-INTERVIEW-Hayward-claims-plenty-fuel-left-tank.html

from normde on iii:

I made a transcription of the following points from the John Gerstenlauer podcast just to be sure I heard this correctly:

In the next few months it is anticipated that several other very large players will enter Kurdistan and as most of the good blocks are already taken, they are going to have to buy something. As we have three of the top five discoveries in Kurdistan right now, we must be on everybodys radar. So, we have to be prepared for the probability or very strong possibility of being bought. Not knowing the timing of when that would be and though not proactive about selling, it is prudent to prepare two development plans for submission within the next year one of limited capex for GKP and an unrestricted resource development plan for someone with unlimited capex that can be submitted at the last minute.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/19/us-exxon-iraq-idUSTRE7AI0XP20111119

http://ekurd.net/mismas/articles/misc2011/11/invest768.htm

After the arrival of Exxon, the market is valuing the current players at much higher multiples, so expect multibillion dollar deals. Oil executives in Erbil talk in particular about two deals: Gulf Keystone, which could be bought by a supermajor seeking a quick entry; and a potential merger of DNO and Genel Enerji.

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Industry/article825752.ece

The Sunday Times..

SpikeyDT
1UP

Hayward seeks new Iraq deal
h
The former BP chief is advancing plans to consolidate oil exploration in northern Iraq after big new finds in Kurdistan

Ben Marlow and Danny Fortson Published: 20 November 2011

Tony Hayward is rebuilding his reputation after leaving BP (Julian Andrews)
Tony Hayward has opened takeover talks with several oil explorers in Kurdistan as his first deal in the region closes.

Shares in his new firm, Genel the result of a merger of his cash shell Vallares and Genel Energy, the largest Kurdish producer start trading in London tomorrow.

The former BP chief wants to lead a consolidation in the semi-autonomous region of northern Iraq. Kurdistan has become a hot new oil province after big finds in recent years. Interest was piqued this month when oil giant Exxon bought the rights to half-a-dozen fields. Hayward has drawn up a shortlist thought to include Aspect Energy and Longford Energy, two small firms with Kurdish operations. He has also held informal talks with DNO, a Norwegian producer and joint-venture partner of Genel. Sources said another candidate is Heritage Oil, the FTSE 250 firm run by Tony Buckingham, a former mercenary.

Hayward has described Kurdistan as one of the last great oil frontiers, but the prospectus to the Genel deal lists 53 separate risk factors for investors, including the possibility that the Iraqi oil ministry may dispute Genels rights to its assets

Interview to listen to :

http://www.platts.com/IM.Platts.Content/insightanalysis/podcasts/oilmatters/archive/2011/nov/oilmatters111711.mp3

.

anyone willing to speculate a sensible bid price?