.

Which just coincidentally, is a link to your own article on another board, which of course, you accidentally forgot to mention!

very astute of you harry ;)

Next up Scotia well.

1 Billion recoverable barrel target (expected 32 API oil).

Sits above OIL source rock.

Class 2 AVO (Loligo was Class 3).

Derisked by the results here and proven source rock potential. As I said many times, Loligo expected to be gas.

Scotia is expected to be oil. - Its now derisked.

P - you said a great many things many times, many inconsistent with one another and/or earlier ones

http://www.oilvoice.com/n/FoxDavies_Daily_Monitor_Falklands_Oil_Gas_Borders_Southern_and_Bowleven/e44d26b3bcb6.aspx#ixzz26iZNrVjc

FoxDavies Daily Monitor - Falklands Oil & Gas, Borders & Southern
Monday, September 17, 2012

Falklands Oil & Gas (HOLD, 100p) (FOGL LN, 67.25p, ▼ 0.00%) - Gas, Gas Everywhere…: While we are told that there are strong gas shows C1 to C5, we are not told the proportion of the overall sample that this constitutes, and hence it is not possible to postulate as to the nature of the stream. However, on the basis of BOR's Darwin results, it suggests that it is quite high, which means that will be disappointing for investors.

There is a silver lining, however, for both FOGL and BOR. If the gas find is significant, and given the "relative" proximity of the fields, there could be a possibility of pooling the processing facilities, if only the Falklands Island Government would allow processing on the mainland. Certainly the extent of the gas would make it a worthwhile venture, as overnight it would make the gas finds more likely to be valorised. Ultimately, on the upside we believe that there is likely to be more liquids in this accumulation, but as with BOR' gas condensate find, the volumes of gas that would have to be processed to process a liquids stream at commercial rates, even if it is re-injected, means that a commercial development is by no means a certainty.

The Company is well funded, still has a lot to go for in the basin, and given the success with the drillbit, we believe that the risk profile has reduced somewhat. Scotia is next, the ~1bn bbl prospect, so there is still at least one more well. Given that this is further out of the basin, the chances for intersecting a more liquids prone accumulation is higher, as liquids are the first to be driven out of the source rock and theoretically travel further through the reservoir sandstones, albeit slower.

On the back of this news, and ahead of the liquids sample results, we are reiterating current 100p Target Price, as the fact that it is gas is offset by the potential scale of the discovery, and HOLD recommendation.

http://www.offshore.no/international/article/Searching_for_sweet_spots_at_Loligo

Searching for sweet spots at Loligo

Posted 17.09.2012 10:02:54 av John Bradbury

Work is starting straight away to see if the Loligo gas find in the Falklands is commercial.

Tim Bushell, chief executive of Falklands Oil and Gas, which operated the Loligo gas discovery well with 75%, said the although up to 100 metres (328 feet) of hydrocarbon-bearing reservoir has been encountered, further work needs to focus on reservoir distribution, to find the sweet spots within the discovery.

“The initial results of the Loligo well are encouraging,” Bushell declared today. “They have demonstrated that hydrocarbons have migrated into the Tertiary Channel Play. It is also clear that Loligo is a valid trap that contains multiple gas bearing zones, with over 100 metres [328 feet] of hydrocarbon bearing reservoir.”

And he continued: “We now need to focus on reservoir distribution within Loligo in order to find the sweet spots. A work programme will be undertaken to achieve this, assess the resource potential and commercial viability of this discovery.”

FOGL holds 75% equity in the 42/07-01 Loligo discovery well, which was drilled with the Leiv Eiriksson semi-submersible. Edison International holds the remaining 25% in the well.

With the results from the Scotia prospect – the next well on FOGL's South Atlantic drilling programme – Bushell said these should help determine the company's future exploration efforts.

He indicates that the company has the necessary funding in place for further 3D seismic surveys and for drilling again in 2014.

a sensible, concise and considered analysis from FD i thought ...... certainly a damn sight clearer and more intelligible than most of the 1000+ pseudo-science posts from certain quarters ...... and on that slightly acid note, i shall proceed to boarding

Look - the market cannot price this because they do not know if its 1 TCF recoverable or 25 TCF recoverable. All they know now is :

Its huge

FOGL have wisely stated clearly to the effect - the well location was compromised to hit all targets instead of hitting sweet spots. They drilled into the margins (edges) of the structures - but then - what did anyone expect given this was a 5 in 1 that actually got 6 in 1. 6 targets hit and proven hydrocarbon bearing.with 1 single drill - well done FOGL !!!

Until they process the information they have no idea too - but its looking good.

If they process the information and think that the massive structure has very sweet sweet spots (not like the margin area's presently drilled due to the compromised location) they will be able to say in a couple of months "We think the P50 is 15 TCF or 20 TCF or 30 TCF recoverable"

Until they do further work, get the core samples tested, rework the seismic etc..... then this could be 1 TCF or 30 TCF - nobody knows - so the market will be very reserved in its response until more data is available. The market will assume the low case, until a better case is put forward.

5 TCF recoverable is needed for commercial gas development in the Falklands. So far there is only Johnson up north with about 2.7 TCF recoverable.

If Loligo is over 5 TCF it also makes Johnson commercial overnight.

Lots of work to do - and when the results are known and an RNS comes - then you will see the real reaction.

At the moment all we can say is the potential of the East Falklands is now fully proven, there are possibly 80 billion BOE recoverable up for play now - and lets get on with it.

Loligo is huge, it could be highly commercial - wait for the technical update in a couple of months time.

Usual over-inflated claims. Sensible investors would be better off taking note of the Fox Davies comments.

Any production is many years away and will require a massive investment, not least to deal with the environmental safeguards that the authorities will most certainly insist on.

It is the future potential of the east basin plus Scotia that should drive the sp.....in my view this company is way undervalued.....good result this morning not yet priced in by the market which got it completely wrong this morning.....who were the muppets that sold out 60p or less ?....bonkers...

Mr P - "Loligo is huge, it could be highly commercial - wait for the technical update in a couple of months time."
So that's about it from you until late November?

Goldman Sachs comment :

Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL) has just announced the result of the Loligo
exploration well being drilled in the South Falklands basin. The initial well
results indicate that gas has been encountered within the targeted T1 to T5
reservoir horizons with gas shows (C1 to C5) encountered while drilling
through each horizon. The company notes that owing to the thinly bedded
nature of the reservoir it is difficult at this stage to accurately assess
hydrocarbon saturation and the total net pay and thus further detailed
studies are required to obtain a better understanding of resource potential.

Analysis

FOGL has a 75% interest in the well with its partner Edision International
holding the remaining 25%. We currently value the prospect (c. gross
volume 4.7bn bls) net to FOGL at 135p/share on a risked post funding
basis. This assumes both a gas and oil case split roughly 65%:35%. In the
event of totally de-risking the prospect assuming a gas case, we would
value Loligo at c. £11.75/share.

H

Miss P is in a quandry. She usually claims to have sold out on a spike but wasn't able to do that here. Her - highly questionable - 400,000 share holding is tying up a lot of capital, which would normally be transferred to the next ramp target.

happy days, onwards and upwards.

Just for info if it did come in at 25 tcf it would be the 20th biggest gas field ever discovered, a true giant.

Also the vast majority of bigger fields are in coutries that we wouldnt want to rely on too much, such as Iran, Russia etc. A field of this size discovered in a friendly part of the western world would be big news to companies in this line of business.

so the Argies are going to become our friends ?

The argies will only ever sabre rattle. Self determination trumps all. They can whinge all they want but it wont make any difference to the outcome of these explorations and possible future commercial activities.

I agree.......Onwards and upwards.

Good morning for me..........My finger was on the button at the opening........Managed to buy at 63p, which was great, as I sold a 1/3rd of my stock last week, bagged some pound notes and now have more shares.

Long term share for me, but I feel the share will be volatile for a couple of weeks until "Scotia is spudded" then share will head north, so I intend to buy and sell with my 1/3rd holding, hoping to bag more shares, and hopefully bank a little profit on the way.

Glad to see "cynic" back buying more shares.........Valued columnist IMO; I enjoy reading all the posts, some good some bad........Everyone is entitled to an opinion. All this said; FOGL is now a big player (IMO)!
PS: I am still a supporter of Pro………..If Pro is a Ramper, he is a very good technical Ramper (IMO).

She is good at copying and pasting.

It never ceases to amaze does it ie: just because the s/p hasn't tanked like a lot of these know alls said it was going to, we now get dorks like blackdown coming out with the environmental safeguards rouse, sometimes you could'nt make it up, they're like a bunch of spoilt brats who can't get their own way and stamping their feet..