.

so the Argies are going to become our friends ?

The argies will only ever sabre rattle. Self determination trumps all. They can whinge all they want but it wont make any difference to the outcome of these explorations and possible future commercial activities.

I agree.......Onwards and upwards.

Good morning for me..........My finger was on the button at the opening........Managed to buy at 63p, which was great, as I sold a 1/3rd of my stock last week, bagged some pound notes and now have more shares.

Long term share for me, but I feel the share will be volatile for a couple of weeks until "Scotia is spudded" then share will head north, so I intend to buy and sell with my 1/3rd holding, hoping to bag more shares, and hopefully bank a little profit on the way.

Glad to see "cynic" back buying more shares.........Valued columnist IMO; I enjoy reading all the posts, some good some bad........Everyone is entitled to an opinion. All this said; FOGL is now a big player (IMO)!
PS: I am still a supporter of Pro………..If Pro is a Ramper, he is a very good technical Ramper (IMO).

She is good at copying and pasting.

It never ceases to amaze does it ie: just because the s/p hasn't tanked like a lot of these know alls said it was going to, we now get dorks like blackdown coming out with the environmental safeguards rouse, sometimes you could'nt make it up, they're like a bunch of spoilt brats who can't get their own way and stamping their feet..

My original post on valuing and understanding Loligo is here :

http://boards.fool.co.uk/understanding-loligo-fogl-12614508.aspx


The succulent part is this below :

----------------------------


GAS BASIS - this is a VERY POSSIBLE outcome to the well on success.


T1 = Circa 9 TCF recoverable - P50

T1 Deep = Circa 3.8 TCF recoverable - P50

Trigg and Trigg Deep is circa 5.8 TCF recoverable - P50

Three Bears = Circa 9.5 TCF recoverable - P50


Based on Cove's (COV) sale and therefore using a 513 millions US$ per TCF recoverable and taking 75% of that for FOGL's share and 320 million shares in issue.

T1 = 9*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £6.98 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas
T1 Deep = 3.8*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £2.94 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas
Triggs = 5.8*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £4.49 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas
3 Bears = 9.5*75%*513mUS$/1.55/320m = £7.36 per FOGL share value if P50 size gas

As FOGL already have a farm in partner and reservoirs are going to be, if there, large massive thick sandstones and simple to develop the price should be higher than Sea Lion's 4.7US$ per barrel, however, I will use that for now to be conservative.

If all targets are gas, based on COV price - potential £21.77 per share.


------------------------------------


From todays RNS we would appear to have lost perhaps T1/T1 Deep - but have gained a substantial new reservoir in T5 level (Tertiary 5), however we do not know what it is. T5 could make up for the T1 potential loss - but at this stage it best to ignore T1 and go with no value for T5.


So Triggs + Three Bears and ignoring T5 - falls basically in line with the Goldman Sachs valuation - but with upside on T5 being big and good.

So well done Goldman - pretty good conservative valuation of Loligo going forward, lots of potential upside to that as well.

This potential will not get priced in to any large extent until further technical updates are given and will start to get fully priced in once an appraisal well hits the sweet spots in the channels (as opposed to present compromised location which hit the edges and outside of the channels - outside the main target reservoir thick pay areas).

But anyway - just goes to show what potential is there - and this East Falklands basin is massive.

You can see why its the only area that got farmed into by multi-billion partners BEFORE drilling started.

The big difference between BOR and FOGL is that FOGL already has multi-billion partners.

FOGL is also fully funded for 4 to 5 wells in 2014.

They can do 3D seismic next year and look forward to appraising Loligo and proving its worth - without the need for any fund raisings.

BOR sadly are out of cash with only enough for 3D work. Which means they have a weak hand to play as they have to farm out now or have to issues lots of new shares to raise money.

Not the same with FOGL - fully funded for 3D and also 4 or 5 new wells/appraisals - and on top of that we still have full paid for Scotia well next.

FOGL is a lovely place to be right now.


A friend asked me earlier what they should do with FOGL for the long term - I answered quite simply to them "A nice alternate pension would be making a shareholding account called "FOGL Pension" and then every month buying a few hundred pounds of shares and locking them away in that account - not to be traded or sold. Just keep doing that each month for a few years and you will have a very substantial sum of money in 5 years time imo."

After so much negativity of late, FOGL seems to be on the money. £21.77 a share seems a bit optimistic, but I'll take it thank you very much!

For £21.77 I'll happily roll over my Futures..!!

http://www.fogl.com/fogl/en/home

Then click on Noble Energy farm out prensentation

FOGL are not fully funded for 4 or 5 wells in 2014

FOGL fully funded for 5 wells: 2 wells in 2012 and 3 additional wells in a later drilling campaign

er markymar, doesnt that make 5.

All depends on the wells, location, depth, costs etc........

Fully funded for 4 or 5 shallower or 3 deep.

Jbc,

The comment was aimed at pro who has me on filter but also to point out what he has posted above is wrong as they are not fully funded


Proselenes- 17 Sep 2012 14:27 - 1974 of 1978

The big difference between BOR and FOGL is that FOGL already has multi-billion partners.

FOGL is also fully funded for 4 to 5 wells in 2014.

They can do 3D seismic next year and look forward to appraising Loligo and proving its worth - without the need for any fund raisings.

BOR sadly are out of cash with only enough for 3D work. Which means they have a weak hand to play as they have to farm out now or have to issues lots of new shares to raise money.

Not the same with FOGL - fully funded for 3D and also 4 or 5 new wells/appraisals - and on top of that we still have full paid for Scotia well next.

Just read the RNS as in Egypt with a bad connection.
Yes, the market will be disapointed re gas not oil, but it was a bets on 2 to 1 to find nothing.
So its like seeing what you think is a $ 10 note (no pound sign on this machine) flutering on the ground then on picking it up finding its a $5 note.
Pesinist unhappy, optomist happy.
Me I,m happy

http://seekingalpha.com/article/871091-falklands-oil-gas-makes-a-gas-discovery-in-the-south-falkland-basin

Falklands Oil & Gas Makes A Gas Discovery In The South Falkland Basin

September 17, 2012

Disclosure: I am long FLKOF.PK. (More...)

On September 17, Falklands Oil and Gas (FLKOF.PK) announced the results of their Loligo well. The press release stated that all of the sands contained gas with the largest prize coming in the lower T5 zone. FOGL was unable to retrieve fluid samples from any of the zones.

The upper zones are relatively small compared to the size of the T5 zone. The press release details the T5 zone as follows:


Within the T5 target two main hydrocarbon bearing zones were encountered (3,462 to 3,558 metres and 3,608 to 3,705 metres). The net hydrocarbon bearing reservoir in these two zones was 46 and 59 metres respectively. Porosities ranged between 23% and 30%, averaging 24% and hydrocarbon saturations between 40% and 75%.


Since the T5 zone is the main zone of interest, I would like to try and quantify the amount of gas there using simple original gas in place (OGIP) calculations. Certain things will have to be assumed for a simple lack of data. My assumptions are as follows:
I will assume a reservoir pressure of 5,500 psia. This is more or less a saltwater gradient and is likely correct or actually conservative. An actual pressure that is higher will increase the OGIP volumes.
I am also assuming 250F reservoir temperature. This is simply an educated guess.
Gas Gravity of 0.8
Z-Factor of 1.05 based on correlations using the above pressure/temperatures with a corresponding formation volume factor of 0.00680438 RB/SCF
I have assumed an area of 200 sq km. This is simply a very conservative guess based on the size range given for the upper zones (250-600 sq km).

Net pay height was given as a combined 105m (343 ft). Porosity is given as 24%. We will take the mid point of gas saturation which is 58%.

OGIP can be calculated as Area * Height * Porosity * Gas Saturation / Formation Volume Factor.

Combining all of the above into the OGIP calculation, I come up with 27 TCF gas in place for the T5 interval. Assume a 75% recovery factor and the FOGL WI of 75% and FOGL's reserves just from the T5 sand could be 15 TCF. Compare this to the 2011 reported US proved reserves of a few large companies:
ExxonMobil (XOM) 26 TCF
Chesapeake (CHK) 15.5 TCF
BP (BP) 13.5 TCF
Devon (DVN) 9.5 TCF
Anadarko (APC) 8.4 TCF

Clearly if T5 is actually this big, it is a game changer. It will put FOGL on the same level of reserves as the $14B Chesapeake Energy. On the flip side, there are portions of this press release that are disappointing. FOGL was unable to gather fluid samples or pressure data. These are huge pieces of information especially in a gas reservoir. I can't comment on why exactly they were not able to recover data. Typically permeability would be associated with these two data points. A low permeability reservoir could cause issues with FOGL, however one would expect a Tertiary formation with 24% porosity to have some decent permeability. In the coming weeks, the sidewall cores and related data will give us a much better picture of what FOGL actually has.

Until then, FOGL will plug the Loligo well and move the rig to drill the Scotia prospect, which has been advertised as potentially 1.1B bbls of prospective resources. FOGL has a 40% WI in Scotia and believes the oil story there is not compromised based on the gassy Loligo results. Look for Scotia results in roughly two months.

None of the reams of Miss P's (and her alter ego grannygirl's) posts change anything. Production is years away and the extraction costs will be relatively high.

They don't want to hear it as it causes misting of their rose tinted spectacles but these are the facts.

have decided to bank a modest profit and sold all at 71.5

Good see you back Cynic,it will be a change all this fresh weather.

Frost up on hills first thing here,just as well its nice and warm down the mine.

http://www.standard.co.uk/business/shell-suspends-arctic-drilling-plans-to-2013-8144525.html

Just having a little read up on shell and the difficulties they are having drilling over there in the Artic, you would think all this money they are spending and loosing due to the weather and only able to drill at certain times of year puts FI firmly on their radar.
If FOGL gas find yesterday is the monster we all think it is then it must open up the whole of the FI, what we need is a gas plant on the FI, whether this happens over time is anyone’s guess.

We're only begining to scratch the surface where the Falklands are concerned, sure theres money to be made right now but we all know this is a real long term play.