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MrP - as i have already booked my profit on my bor short, i can take a relatively disinterested view except insofar as the drilling result will affect rkh (i'm long) to a greater or lesser extent

even best case scenarios only have a 5/1 chance of success, and so far less than bugger all has actually been found in the southern basin, so as far as i am concerned, bor will have to fluke it, rather as rkh did with sealion (of whatever true size that turns out to be)

further, bor will be skint after this drill, so it's definitely a case of shit or bust for them

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and clearly the market (still) does not share your enthusiasm either

I think that they will encounter hydrocarbons but whether they are enough of them to be able to declare a commercial discovery remains to be seen....I have a punt on these but it is risky......the trouble is getting in at the right time with these stocks and I'm not watching this from morning till evening.....40 million barrels should be commercial but if they come across oil at all : it might mean that elsewhere on the acreage there is a lot, lot more....

surely even 40mbo recoverable is scarcely a smear in comparison with the cost of extraction?

Not if they discover more elsewhere......take a look at the map.....5 wells being drilled at least in this campaign and I bet they (BOR or more likely FOGL) will hit something....if this first well hits the jackpot first time round then there will be a massive feeding frenzy on the sp.....with oil been discovered in Sealion not too far away and this being a marine environment, there is a big chance of something being down here......might not hit with this first well directly where they should but with four more wells at least to go.....it's worth a punt....

There's that word again..........MIGHT.,.

You want something certain ?.....then don't buy oil stocks !....

RF - no one is talking about certainties, but southern basin is (currently) no better than roulette ...... the market doesn't always get it right, but it does most times, and for a while now it has ignored the hype being bandied about and continues to do so ..... perhaps ask yourself why

Perhaps I'm being too greedy getting in on the bottom rung as so to speak.....but remember RKH before the sealion strike....the sp was dropping a few pennies every day before that now famous announcement.....I'm taking a risk but compared to rest of my portfolio....only 10% at a guess and that's with BOR and FOGL together.....even if it's just gas this time....that'll be alright....we shall see....the upside is huge....

that's a large % for playing roulette ..... there's always plenty of money to be made after the event

Well, I think this will be over 80p at some time next week, and then at the end of the next week we are into potential rumours and news time.

Going to be fun.

Any kind of indication of hydrocarbons will send the sp of both BOR and FOGL way over 100p.....now if you check out the maps on their websites : the chances are not bad at all of some kind of a strike in the next few months....

post 206 is spot on .... at the end of the next week we are into potential rumours and news time. though i doubt there will be much news

with rf about......plenty of rumours.,.

http://epetitions.direct.gov.uk/petitions/31848

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Well, watch the volume this coming week. Later this coming week is into rumour time and potential for leaks if progress has been good with recent drilling, which there is nothing to suggest it has not.

Over 5 million shares traded is a sure fire sign of someone potentially knowing something and spreading the word, so a keen eye on volume (in the absence of other whole market events) is what I shall be doing now.

rumour is a crap reason to buy except perhaps a very quick trade ..... we have all seen this - heavy volume + spiralling sp -in a number of alleged target stocks over recent months, with severely burnt limbs ensuing when all is found to be illusory

long scaremongering article in telegraph this morning re argentinian threat should keep peeps on their toes tomorrow

You mean a regurgitation of the old news from a week or so ago ? LOL.

Thats the Telegraph for you. Of course the article will briefly mention that the Argies have no rights at all to do anything on any basis - but of course, thats not what writing media articles is about is it........... LOL.

The Argies threats have more immediate impact on RKH........ perhaps why its been falling so much of late has RKH............

whatever ..... you keep believing your own hype etc .... for myself, having read the article, i shall stay with rkh and just possibly have a new dabble in fogl ..... bor i shall continue to avoid, though shall not short again