The Times -- 7 August 2010

Personal Investor: Robert Cole says hold Lloyds Banking Group as the results suggest genuine reasons for optimism, although there is a long way to go before shareholders can be confident about their investment.

Sunday Times

Lloyds Banking Group may be in a position to pay out 15bn or more in dividends in 2012 as a result of the recovery in fortunes for the banks who a year ago were reporting record losses. Lloyds is prevented by the EC from paying dividends at present as the price paid for approving state support after the HBOS takeover. But the bank's improved financial position could now see the Treasury sell its 41 per cent stake sooner than expected. Meanwhile, the bumper profits unveiled by all the leading banks last week has led to increased criticism about their alleged lack of lending to business.

DERAMPERS BEWARE!

From the FT.com .........

Online chatroom rumours under scrutiny
By Miles Johnson -- August 9 2010 03:02

Two UK-listed companies have launched investigations into rumours spread in online investment chatrooms, highlighting the influence of bulletin boards on the smaller end of the London stock market.

Online bulletin boards such as ADVFN and iii attract thousands of posts each day from a dedicated audience of retail investors fiercely debating their portfolios.

Nighthawk Energy, an Aim-quoted oil company, is considering launching legal action against anonymous bulletin board users whom the group claims have used multiple accounts to spread false rumours about its solvency and management team, people close to the company said.

The investigation would not target the bulletin board operators, which were assisting with the probe, and was likely to focus on the use of multiple accounts by one person who repeatedly posted claims.

Nostra Terra Oil and Gas, another Aim-quoted oil company, has also begun an investigation into bulletin board posts which made claims about its chief executive.

Under Financial Services Authority rules, the distribution of false rumour with the aim of driving a companys share price down constitutes market abuse.

The investigations come after rumours on bulletin boards have triggered flash crashes in the share prices of small-cap companies this year.

In June shares in Rockhopper, the Aim-quoted Falkland islands oil explorer popular with retail investors, fell by more than 50 per cent in an afternoon after rumours appeared on bulletin boards questioning the quality of its oil.

The company was forced to release a statement to the stock exchange saying that it knew of no reason for the fall. The shares subsequently recovered in value.

Operators of bulletin boards can use data protection laws to decline to disclose information about their users.

Londons hundreds of small natural resources companies are among the most popular shares with private investors due to rising commodity prices and the potential for quick returns.

Data from TD Waterhouse, the online stock broker, shows that Aim-quoted oil companies such as Gulf Keystone Petroleum and Petro Matad are consistently in the top 10 of shares bought and sold by its clients.

Big Upgrade by this Broker........

Lloyds Banking Group FTSE 100 Financial Buy 140 75.16 86.3% Societe Generale

140p SP target 86.3% upside.

did you hear that big bang? SP 75p - champagne corks popping!!!

Except your target price is 85p, not 75p. Suggest you re-cork & hope the fizz doesn't dissipate!

Midday Market REPORT

Royal Bank of Scotland led the banks lower, hit by a downgrade to neutral from outperform at Credit Suisse. RBS fell 1.43p at 48.92p.
Lloyds eased 0.67p at 74.31p, while Barclays bucked the trend, gaining a modest 0.9p at 335.9p.

Looks like tomorrow I'll be taking delivery of that Ferrari then hey SmartyArse, Do you actually ever make any money playing in this Casino ???? Thought not !

nordy - suggest you print off your posts and show them to your psychiatrist

smarty

I will second that

Can I be the psychiatrist?
I will refer " nordy" to the surgeon and suggest a borehole on the small brain, we may find OIL

85p Roflmfao wot a cock !

A very strong start 74.32p +2p, though the market is just down

Lloyds agrees to sell Crest Nicholson stake to Varde
LONDON - Thu Sep 9,

LONDON (Reuters) - Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L) has agreed to sell its stake in housebuilder Crest Nicholson to U.S. investment company Varde, continuing to shed non-core assets and refocus on its core lending activities.

A source with knowledge of the deal confirmed that Varde was buying Lloyds' stake in Crest Nicholson and that the British bank was planning to make a writeback on its previous valuation of the stake.

Lloyds, the country's biggest retail bank which was part-nationalised during the credit crisis, declined to comment on the value of the sale, but the Financial Times reported it was priced at 150 million pounds.

The Crest Nicholson disposal follows hot on the heels of Lloyds' sales in July of its private equity business to Coller Capital for 332 million pounds, and its Ecuadorian branch assets for $25 million.

Lloyds was saddled with billions of pounds of losses after it bought troubled rival HBOS at the height of the credit crisis of 2008 in an emergency deal brokered by the Labour government of the time.

Its problems led the state to take a 41 percent stake after spiralling bad loans forced the bank to accept a taxpayer-funded bailout, in return for which regulators have also demanded that it sell hundreds of branches.

Lloyds shares were up 1.7 percent at 73.50 pence at 8:21 a.m. British time, making the stock the one of the top gainers on the benchmark FTSE 100 index .FTSE. The FTSE was down 0.2 percent.

Schroder UK Alpha Plus Fund update -- By Richard Troue - Thu 09 September 2010

Never one to be afraid of going against the crowd, Richard Buxton, manager of the Schroder UK Alpha Plus Fund, is currently very positive on the UK consumer and banking sectors at a time when many are predicting doom and gloom.

In support of his view Richard Buxton cites an overwhelmingly positive first half results season and improvements in company finances as the benefits of restructuring in the wake of the recession begin to show through. This doesnt mean were set for a walk in the park. He suggests growth will be sluggish and UK public spending cuts, set to be announced later in the year, could be more severe than many expect. However, he believes this will create attractive stock picking opportunities.

In the banking sector he is particularly positive on Lloyds Banking Group, the portfolios largest holding at 4.8%, believing the company will see significant profits, and has huge earnings potential over the long term. In total just over 24% of the fund is invested in financial companies.

75.85p +1.20p

2nd day moving higher on a good way, on news and MACD moving bullish

Back the banks
Lloyds Banking Group led the Footsie rally last week after several analysts updated their outlook for the stock. Leigh Goodwin at Citi said: UK domestic banks still offer long-term value. We continue to rate Lloyds as a medium-risk buy, and we also upgrade RBS to a buy, principally on valuation grounds. Richard Buxton at Schroders is maintaining his equity positions and his biggest holding is in Lloyds, which he said still looks cheap. The stock is down 28% over 12 months, although it has rallied 36% over the past three months.

.the sunday times

There is chances that LLOY will buy back its own shares when UKFI decide to sell their stake to the market

A very strong start of the day as the FTSE open well up. is now on a position were is ready for a BREAKOUT @ 77.68p

LONDON MARKETS
The main topic of conversation in the City today was the weekend's agreement with the Basel Committee raising banks capital requirements. Banks will have to triple their levels of reserves under the new rules which will be introduced between 2015 and 2018.

With the new rules considered more benign than feared in many quarters, especially the timetable for change, Lloyds led the UK banks higher, rising 2.12p at 77.74p. Royal Bank of Scotland added 1.27p at 49.8p and Barclays rose 1.65p at 320.75p.

Lloyds' boss Eric Daniels will step down next year
by Deborah Hyde on Sep 20, 2010 at 17:20

The search has begun for a replacement for Lloyds chief executive Eric Daniels, the man once dubbed 'the quiet American', who took the bank through the credit crunch and the controversial acquisition of HBOS.

Lloyds Banking Group has confirmed that chief executive Eric Daniels will step down next year.

Group chairman Win Bischoff said the merger between Lloyds and HBOS and the sooner-than-expected return to profitability are 'testament to Daniels' disciplined and vigorous leadership during a time of unprecedented financial turmoil.'

However, shareholders have been less enthusiastic about the bank's decision to buy HBOS, a move that devastated its share price and forced the bank to go cap in hand to the government and surrender a 41% stake in the business.

Even before today's news was announced, rumours had been circulating that Daniels' time at the helm of Lloyds was numbered given shares remian far below the level they were at before the bank bought HBOS.

Helen Weir, head of retail banking, is seen as the most likely internal candidate to repalce Daniels. Other suggestions include Graham Beale, chief executive of Nationwide and Douglas Flint, current finance director at HSBC.

Les Ames, head of dealing at WH Ireland, hoped the board would select someone who was already a chief executive. 'I don't think someone who has only been a finance director will have had broad enough experience,' he said.

He favoured Mervyn Davies, former chief executive of Standard Chartered, who enjoyed a brief spell as trade minister under the Labour government and is currently vice chairman of US private equity firm Corsair Capital.

Joseph Dickerson, banks analyst at Execution Noble was one of the first to predict Lloyds could be back in the black this year. Like Ames, he thinks the bank needs a competent CEO with 'hands-on experience'.

'Given the retail focus which is set to increase in terms of its contribution to the banks profits a consumer banking background would be helpful. With the c40% government stake, political sensitivity would be helpful too,' he said.



Whoever replaces Daniels will have an awful lot to prove as Lloyds has beaten market expectations on profits over the last few quarters. Many believe conditions will begin to get tougher again from next year as government spending cuts lift unemployment and could lead to a rise in bad loans, making it more difficult for the bank to keep beating expectations.

The group has so far decided against selling any of its branches as a result of receiving state aid. It has until 2015 to do so and wants to focus on building its business first.

But shareholders have reportedly become anxious to receive a return on their investment given the European Commission said last summer that Lloyds cannot pay a dividend or return cash to shareholders until 2012. The ban was a condition for approving the purchase of HBOS - something Lloyds would not have been allowed to do under normal competition rules.

The bank also needs to prepare for next summer's independent commission on banking which is expected to investigate whether banks treat their customers fairly or charge too much.

Most importantly of all, the bank needs to replace tens of billions of pounds of loans from the Bank of England and other loans that fall due over the next couple of years and has to find a way of extricating itself from the government's clutches.

A report in the Sunday Times suggested the bank was considering spending billions of pounds to buy back government shares after leading institutional investors demanded Lloyds find new ways to make them money.

Mike Trippitt, banking analyst at Oriel Securities, said Lloyds had around 20 billion of excess cash to fund such a move. He calculated a 10 billion buy-back at 75p would increase 2011 and 2012 earnings per share by around 7% in 2011 and 16% in 2012, assuming a 4% loss of earnings on the excess capital.

However, others think the government may be reluctant to take Lloyds' money now for fear that the shares will rise later leaving it open to criticism that it missed out on a much larger profit.

Given the Bank of England today confirmed that the bank - alongside its peers - has failed to pass on lower interest rates to its customers, the government may also want to keep hold of its stake in a hope it can use its influence to ensure the bank begins to lend more and to stop squeezing its customers.

With so much to tackle at lloyds, Dickerson hopes the board will move fast to find a replacement, warning that if it drags its heels that could create a so-called overhang which would hobble the shares.