.

er markymar, doesnt that make 5.

All depends on the wells, location, depth, costs etc........

Fully funded for 4 or 5 shallower or 3 deep.

Jbc,

The comment was aimed at pro who has me on filter but also to point out what he has posted above is wrong as they are not fully funded


Proselenes- 17 Sep 2012 14:27 - 1974 of 1978

The big difference between BOR and FOGL is that FOGL already has multi-billion partners.

FOGL is also fully funded for 4 to 5 wells in 2014.

They can do 3D seismic next year and look forward to appraising Loligo and proving its worth - without the need for any fund raisings.

BOR sadly are out of cash with only enough for 3D work. Which means they have a weak hand to play as they have to farm out now or have to issues lots of new shares to raise money.

Not the same with FOGL - fully funded for 3D and also 4 or 5 new wells/appraisals - and on top of that we still have full paid for Scotia well next.

Just read the RNS as in Egypt with a bad connection.
Yes, the market will be disapointed re gas not oil, but it was a bets on 2 to 1 to find nothing.
So its like seeing what you think is a $ 10 note (no pound sign on this machine) flutering on the ground then on picking it up finding its a $5 note.
Pesinist unhappy, optomist happy.
Me I,m happy

http://seekingalpha.com/article/871091-falklands-oil-gas-makes-a-gas-discovery-in-the-south-falkland-basin

Falklands Oil & Gas Makes A Gas Discovery In The South Falkland Basin

September 17, 2012

Disclosure: I am long FLKOF.PK. (More...)

On September 17, Falklands Oil and Gas (FLKOF.PK) announced the results of their Loligo well. The press release stated that all of the sands contained gas with the largest prize coming in the lower T5 zone. FOGL was unable to retrieve fluid samples from any of the zones.

The upper zones are relatively small compared to the size of the T5 zone. The press release details the T5 zone as follows:


Within the T5 target two main hydrocarbon bearing zones were encountered (3,462 to 3,558 metres and 3,608 to 3,705 metres). The net hydrocarbon bearing reservoir in these two zones was 46 and 59 metres respectively. Porosities ranged between 23% and 30%, averaging 24% and hydrocarbon saturations between 40% and 75%.


Since the T5 zone is the main zone of interest, I would like to try and quantify the amount of gas there using simple original gas in place (OGIP) calculations. Certain things will have to be assumed for a simple lack of data. My assumptions are as follows:
I will assume a reservoir pressure of 5,500 psia. This is more or less a saltwater gradient and is likely correct or actually conservative. An actual pressure that is higher will increase the OGIP volumes.
I am also assuming 250F reservoir temperature. This is simply an educated guess.
Gas Gravity of 0.8
Z-Factor of 1.05 based on correlations using the above pressure/temperatures with a corresponding formation volume factor of 0.00680438 RB/SCF
I have assumed an area of 200 sq km. This is simply a very conservative guess based on the size range given for the upper zones (250-600 sq km).

Net pay height was given as a combined 105m (343 ft). Porosity is given as 24%. We will take the mid point of gas saturation which is 58%.

OGIP can be calculated as Area * Height * Porosity * Gas Saturation / Formation Volume Factor.

Combining all of the above into the OGIP calculation, I come up with 27 TCF gas in place for the T5 interval. Assume a 75% recovery factor and the FOGL WI of 75% and FOGL's reserves just from the T5 sand could be 15 TCF. Compare this to the 2011 reported US proved reserves of a few large companies:
ExxonMobil (XOM) 26 TCF
Chesapeake (CHK) 15.5 TCF
BP (BP) 13.5 TCF
Devon (DVN) 9.5 TCF
Anadarko (APC) 8.4 TCF

Clearly if T5 is actually this big, it is a game changer. It will put FOGL on the same level of reserves as the $14B Chesapeake Energy. On the flip side, there are portions of this press release that are disappointing. FOGL was unable to gather fluid samples or pressure data. These are huge pieces of information especially in a gas reservoir. I can't comment on why exactly they were not able to recover data. Typically permeability would be associated with these two data points. A low permeability reservoir could cause issues with FOGL, however one would expect a Tertiary formation with 24% porosity to have some decent permeability. In the coming weeks, the sidewall cores and related data will give us a much better picture of what FOGL actually has.

Until then, FOGL will plug the Loligo well and move the rig to drill the Scotia prospect, which has been advertised as potentially 1.1B bbls of prospective resources. FOGL has a 40% WI in Scotia and believes the oil story there is not compromised based on the gassy Loligo results. Look for Scotia results in roughly two months.

None of the reams of Miss P's (and her alter ego grannygirl's) posts change anything. Production is years away and the extraction costs will be relatively high.

They don't want to hear it as it causes misting of their rose tinted spectacles but these are the facts.

have decided to bank a modest profit and sold all at 71.5

Good see you back Cynic,it will be a change all this fresh weather.

Frost up on hills first thing here,just as well its nice and warm down the mine.

http://www.standard.co.uk/business/shell-suspends-arctic-drilling-plans-to-2013-8144525.html

Just having a little read up on shell and the difficulties they are having drilling over there in the Artic, you would think all this money they are spending and loosing due to the weather and only able to drill at certain times of year puts FI firmly on their radar.
If FOGL gas find yesterday is the monster we all think it is then it must open up the whole of the FI, what we need is a gas plant on the FI, whether this happens over time is anyone’s guess.

We're only begining to scratch the surface where the Falklands are concerned, sure theres money to be made right now but we all know this is a real long term play.

if this is "a real long term play" with a starter that is currently deemed to be of pretty questionable value, then until a massive amount more is FACTUAL, the share is certainly no better than a momentum play .... until there is some interest with regard to the Scotia spud (and result!) upside is minimal or less

Course its a momentum play! Cash makes up half the sp, no earnings and none likely untill if finds significient investement and proves it has resources to develop and develops them. This for me is nothing more than a momentum play currently.

Longer term though I expect FOGL will find its investment and prove up its resources.

Dont forget chaps that production might be years away. So what. FOGL dont want to be an operator. They have stated this. They want to find the resources and then realise any value as quickly as possible, by selling to the big boys. Good news for FOGL, good news for investors.

If Loligo proves viable with a mammoth gas field, then it will be very likely that FOGL will sell there 75% share for who knows, instantly realising a mammoth return for investors.

You wont know about this, you wont get wind of this until a statement is issued saying EDF or some other biggy has acquired the Loligo field for $*,***,***,***. It wont be like a drill where you know the rough time of an update, so the only way to be sure of cashing in is to hold some shares certainly for medium term gain.

it's a view, but one with which i do not entirely concur

if we all shared the same view the world would be very boring :)

Okay, this is really bizarre what the hell is going on! How come people aren't buying the shares????????????????????

Why would you buy atm? Lots of investors are looking to make short term gains, so much better prospects elsewhere.

there's nothing of FOGL that merits new money for at least several more weeks