http://oilbarrel.com/home.html07.11.2008
Drillers To Focus Their Sights On The Falkland Isles During 2009
More subdued oil pricing may not have helped the cause but drilling some of the high potential - and high risk - targets that lay off the Falkland Isles appears closer, finally.
It has been a long wait, especially given the scale of reserves that are thought to sit quietly beneath the waves in this cold, remote corner of the South Atlantic, a place made famous by the bitter conflict of 1982 that pitched the UK against Argentina.
More than a quarter century later, this feud has not been forgotten - Argentina still wants sovereignty talks over the islands - though chatter has turned to another matter altogether, notably the prospect of finding oil and gas.
There is a belief that offshore there are reservoirs containing huge volumes of both.
One Falklands enthusiast, AIM-listed Desire Petroleum, has identified a single prospect, known as Alpha, that has mid-estimate potential recoverable reserves of up to 15 trillion cubic feet (tcf). By any standard around the world that would be a gas find of immense proportions.
But this is all largely theoretical. These figures are still estimates until proven by the drill bit.
Nonetheless, the few wells that have been drilled in the Falklands offshore area date back 10 years or more but delivered encouraging results with most encountering hydrocarbons.
Investors have needed to be patient, with first, low oil pricing discouraging wildcat wells in such an unproven territory, and then, as prices spiraled upwards, the sheer demand for rigs worldwide and consequent cost pressures.
There are now signs that things are again starting to pick up. After a year in which large energy groups woke up to this little-known potential, farming into blocks held by niche operators like Desire Petroleum, drilling is again coming back into focus.
Officials from BHP Billiton - which in 2007 teamed up with Falkland Oil & Gas (FOGL), another AIM company with high hopes for the region - visited the islands in late October to plan drilling work. They hope to begin with the next 12-18 months.
After years of waiting, steadfastly accumulating data across its blocks, FOGL now believes that 2009 could be the year when its deepwater prospects, to the south and east of the islands, are drilled.
This is likely to be during the latter half of the year, with BHP Billiton still assessing rig options. Work that can be done is being done. FOGL said in late September that a first prospect is being determined with site surveys to kick-off during November.
One option is the Loligo prospect, which it reckons contains most likely un-risked reserves of 3.5 billion barrels of oil a find that - if indeed borne out by the drill bit - would have a very material impact on the companys fortunes.
Desire Petroleum, which operates in the North Falklands Basin, is in a similar position. It has secured farm-out agreements with Arcadia Petroleum to help meet the cost of a pair of initial wells.
This includes footing the bill for drilling the Alpha prospect in return for a 50 per cent share in its Block 25/10 and part of Block 25/15.
Arcadia will also pay 85 per cent of the cost to test another prospect, Ann, in return for a 35 per cent stake in a sub-area of Tranche C that also includes the Orca South prospect.
Although not as high profile an entity as BHP Billiton, Arcadia - primarily an oil trading group - is a strong partner to have onside, part-owned by John Fredriksen, the Norwegian shipping billionaire who controls a number of oil service companies.
The remaining chunk of this well will be covered by another AIM hopeful, Rockhopper Exploration, as part of a larger transaction to muscle its way into the Falklands picture.
Signs of a softening in the rig market, perhaps influenced by the sudden drop in oil prices, have fuelled speculation that these first wells could come sooner rather than later next year. This, however, has not been confirmed, and the official line is that we will have to go on waiting until the second half of 2009 before testing the water.
The business done during the past year or so has been important to prepare the ground for this upcoming round of drilling. Those juniors active in the region, despite their best intentions, have been clearly hampered by the shortage of those two vital components to mount a successful drilling offensive - namely cash (and lots of it) and access to a rig.
With BHP Billiton in the ring, Desire Petroleum now hopes to turn potential into proven. Even after recent transactions it still maintains an approximate 30 per cent share in the total Alpha prospect, making this a definite company-making play. Desire has said that it estimates the chance of success in finding hydrocarbons on the prospect at 50 per cent.
Rockhopper has also been deal making, recently stating that it is in talks with potential farm-out partners. The AIM-quoted company holds a 100 per cent interest in a bunch of North Falkland Basin licenses, plus smaller equity shares in others, in more shallow water.
Last month it responded to a Financial Times report, denying that it was selling up to BHP, but acknowledging that was in talks with potential suitors for a slice of its acreage.
It is also continuing the search for a rig in conjunction with other operators in the North Falkland Basin, it said in a 23 October 2008 statement.
Rockhopper said technical work done across its licences indicated estimates of unrisked recoverable reserves of 4.3 billion barrels of oil plus a multi tcf gas prospect; again, all company-making stuff.
Even with oil prices slipping back it is still historically high and - as these operators have noted - more than sufficient to support economic drilling and production of any future discovery from this isolated region.
Borders & Southern Petroleum is the other notable UK AIM-listed group with interests in this intriguing, but still largely unproven, oil province.
It has completed 3D seismic on its South Falkland Basin licences and is now in the process of identifying drillable prospects. These, it said, will likely include many large-scale structures with multiple stacked targets.
It has not ruled out drilling a well next year, either, but this could hinge on whether the company is prepared to dilute its ownership. In its third quarter results, published late September, it stated that it would be actively pursuing early rig access, and that it could well farm-out, not only for financial reasons, but also for strategic ones, including the chance to drill early wells through greater access to rigs via a partner.
Again, the influence of a major industry name, with some clout in the industry, and the ability to pull an offshore rig into the South Atlantic, would not hurt.
But this is still a hugely speculative play, risky, though with huge potential rewards. At the turn of the year, analysts might have said that share prices were detached from reality given that none of this is proven.
Desire Petroleum shares are way down from when they spiked early this year, as are those of Borders and Southern. FOGL shares are not far off three-year lows, roughly half their value from mid-2007, the time when it secured BHPs involvement.
The fact is until the drilling gets underway and this potential is tested we will not know which position reflects more accurately the true value of these companies. The answer may become more apparent during the course of 2009.