http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

chav, RF sold at 95p and screamed it was overvalued, and has been ever since, all the way up.

Sadly RF has not got the slightest clue how to value RKH and so you can simply ignore these outbursts if you like, its nonsense and just RF being petty and green eyed with jealousy ;)

while it is true that there will be serious problems in getting the oil out and moving from here, the same could be said of TLW's massive find in uganda ...... it becomes an irrelevance, for if the company does not have the money, there will be plenty of others queuing up to relieve them of that problem

cynic don't forget time = money.

true enough, and sp will build in a discount to account for same - once the market knows or at least has a better idea of excatly what has been found etc ..... i don't think RF is the font of all knowledge in that respect!

Thats why oil in the ground gets a price of between $6 to $8 to help people work out what the share is worth.

cynic we should find out whether RKH's strike is as good as the sp suggests or better within the next 3 months.

i agree with you hali, though no doubt i shall continue to trade some and hold some

Missed all the FOGL excitement whilst in France...luckily sold 2/3rds on Wednesday but I'm licking my wounds on the remainder.

Le Mans was 'hot' in every sense of the word! However the car never faltered which is more than can be said for an E-Type on the ferry home that looked very much worse for wear - sadly!

However, back to the thread...

"if RKH pulled there finger out and had all the tools at there disposal they needed they could be pumping oil in to a FPSO within a 15 months and making money."

Am I missing something here? I thought that RKH was an exploration company - full stop.
Surely once the in-ground assets are more defined they WILL sell to one of the big boys?

Avsec,

No you are not missing anything. Some people forget they are an exploration company, so yes they are most likely to sell the well, although they could retain control under a license to a producer.

As to the Fogl results.....Obviously a very bad/disappointing result, but RKH still went up as I predicted in a post last week. No doubt this is a result of investors moving out of Fogl and into RKH. Not often right, so nice to be so for a change. It was a win, win situation for RKH holders. Unfortunately I like many are in both. Far deeper with RKH though.

off thread i know, but are Argos resources ltd floated yet? [ie the co. that has the fields next door to RKH] i know Evolution is handling the IPO but not seen any listing yet or anywhere to sign up to the IPO. anyone help? anyone think it a worthwhile investment? opinions please.
Alex

off topic greekman , i know that you are a boxing fan . check out the Ali T-shirts in Mataland.

robertalexander

when Argos float i will set up a thread for it so far all they have had is 2D over their acerage and there was some promising prospects especialy one which looked like an" elephant" it could of been gas but it could be oil best wait till we get a bit more meat on the bones.A lot more work is needed to derisk there acerage.

There are many different scenarios for RKH to explore and so far the management have not put a foot wrong and have total confidence in what direction they may go there are plenty of rumours to partners knocking on doors.

RKH and DES stand shoulder to shoulder and raising more money to extend there exploration is not a problem at the moment and the OG will be there a long time.

Cheers Aldwickk, will do.

If you look at the leads RKH has (this is based on old "most likely recoverable" figures) :

PL023/024 License Area's.

Beauchene = 145
Bleaker = 193
Concordia = 44
Dolphin = 287
Ernest = 130
Golding = 49
Keppel = 580
Pebble = 186
Saunders = 434
Usborne = 220
Weddell = 254

= 2.5bn bbls recoverable



PL032/033

Sedge = 55
Tyssen = 14
Jason = 350
Sea Lion = 230
Chatham = 65
Meredith = 23
Walker = 68
Louis = 82
Fox = 383
Stephens = 201
Johnson multi Tcf gas
Berkeley = 140
George = 157

= 1.8 bn bbls recoverable



Where you get excited is, well I do, is FOX and STEPHENS.

These are analogues of Sea Lion and with Sea Lion being good these 2 are very much derisked. And look at them, "Fox" is likely twice the size of Sea Lion and Stephens will be not far below Sea Lions size.

And both targets are now very much derisked.

If they drill into 5 or 6 of those leads next year and prove up 50% of them, well, the price of RKH stock will be far far above 2000p a share even after dilution IMO. Thats why this is a damn exciting hold for the longer term, buy them fully paid for and tuck them away.

The Director's figures are always going to look good because they haven't allowed for any dusters, naturally. Your assumption that their strike rate is going to be 50% is also very optimistic, imo, but I do agree that it is worth holding this stock for probable long term gains.
Have trawled through the old posts & I am sure Marky has already posted somewhere, but what is the timetable now for the Ernest drill? (nothing on RKH website).

Ernest to be drilled next hopefully it will encounter Hydrocarbons and a flow test will be conducted then the rig will leave and go over to Sea Lion and will re enter and conduct a further flow test.

If the 3 things in the next 4 month are successful and hopefully the reserves will be upgraded I can honestly see the share price 7+

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/09/282646/markets-live

9.7.2010

We saw RKH management yesterday, who confirmed that the Ernest exploration prospect is likely to be the next to be drilled on its northern Falklands acreage, once the Ocean Guardian rig is released by FOGL/BHP later this month. The result of the FOGL/BHP Toroa-1 prospect, a giant structure with the potential to contain 1.7bn barrels of oil, is expected imminently

RKHs Ernest well is targeting a 156m barrel prospect with a Chance of Success (COS) of 23%, although this may have been derisked somewhat by the success of the recent 242m barrel Sea Lion discovery. On similar metrics to Sea Lion, Ernest could be worth around 280p/share. Following the 30-35 days expected to drill Ernest, the rig will then demobilise and move back to Sea Lion, where the original well will then be re-enterred in anticipation of a testing programme, due to take 45 days to complete. Two separate zones will be tested, with each zone likely to be tested twice, hence this is a relatively slow job. We therefore expect definitive news on the producability of the reservoir by early to mid September. We have a total NAV of 563p/share, which includes 441p/share for Sea Lion and 122p/share for cash and risked upside continue to BUY

Thanks Greek.

Thanks Marky. So best guess spud date for Ernest maybe 1st week august?

The result of the FOGL/BHP Toroa-1 prospect, a giant structure with the potential to contain 1.7bn barrels of oil, is expected imminently .... well that was bollox to start with, so clearly that guy was burnt at the stake