http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

not today old bean - ftse now down 56

You've done the right thing by remaining in cash....I got carried away at the start of the year with what I thought was low sp's and now I'm having to be patient !.

GKP now tumbling big time ..... unsure if it's just pi's being forced to liquidate or something more sinister

no news of any kind on reuters etc, so reckon it's most likely to be be pi positions being liquidated and/or s/b contracts expiring = much the same

sp finishing well considering relatively low volume - mainly buys

T/Overs, in an video the KRG representative stated that he expected the number of companies operating would be reduced from around 40 to about 20.He made a comment something like Small is Beautiful.but Large is now needed?

Make of this what you like?



From lse board. China arriving?



Midnight here now in Shanghai
Today 16:08


I come to UK onThusday 1st Dec.

Watch for Sinapec in Erbil Friday 2nd Dec .

Hold for weekend....don't short on Friday.......been a long time coming but now too much pressure for M and S.

More news underground here than in London.

I am only an amateur PI ( you all know that already and I don't post often) . Shanghai is an international Buzz shop!!!

Another message from Shanghai that I get from a senior International banker friend here is that you all probably know is to change all your Euro investments into Pounds or RMB ASAP. (not US$).

Good Luck All and Hold Tight for now.

loadsa shit - just what's needed for the garden, though i use my own!

You can take that two ways cynic lol.

1. Loadsa shit makes plants grow well in the garden.

2. What, you use your own? Do explain? lol I guess you have some animals.

http://www.aknews.com/en/aknews/2/274875/

Kurdish Representative: Oil Ministry's actions against Exxon illegal
27/11/2011 14:27
BAGHDAD, Nov. 27 (AKnews) - Representative Bayazid Hassan, a Kurdish member of the Council's Oil and Energy Committee, claimed that the federal Oil Ministry is not allowed to put Exxon Mobil on a blacklist for its contracts with the Kurdistan Regional Government.

The announcements of the Oil Ministry's Contracts and Licenses Department were political threats and not legal measures, Hassan said.

"Companies are put on blacklists for violating the law and the terms of the contract. When a company makes a deal with the Kurdistan Region -- which is a part of Iraq -- it can not be against the law," Hassan said.

Exxon Mobil, the Texas-based hydrocarbon corporation, signed an exploration agreement with the KRG to start drilling in six fields. This has dropped the supermajor right in the middle of a battle between the KRG and the federal government in Baghdad.

Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Hussein al-Shahristani gave Exxon Mobil the choice either to work in the West Qurna field or the fields of Kurdistan, thus threatening to cancel existing contracts with the U.S. supermajor.

The Iraqi Oil Ministry said Saturday that it will prevent Exxon Mobil from participating in the fourth oil licensing round if Exxon does not cancel its contracts with the KRG. Abdul Mahdi al-Amidi, Director General of the Contracts and Licenses Department, said that Exxon Mobil violated the working laws of the Oil Ministry when it contracted with KRG.

"The Ministry is waiting for an the official response from the company before it will be completely prevented from working in Iraqi oil fields," Amidi said.

In the past Baghdad has prevented companies operating in the Kurdistan Region from participating in licensing rounds to develop Iraqi oil fields. Other supergiant oil companies working in southern Iraq, like BP and Royal Dutch Shell, have held off from moving into Kurdistan Region for fear of antagonizing the Iraqi government.

By Wisam Mohammed

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/mobile/business-15911337

http://link.ft.com/r/P75VYY/EXJ5W4/4M4S/GDI5A1/8ZY7CD/4O/h?a1=2011&a2=11&a3=28

iii--cheers bbbs

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Re: What will they think in Hong Kong? View parent message



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I'm surprised that most seem to have over-looked the thought processes behind GKP's selection of their second new NED. The RNS of 25th November 2011, 'Appointment of Non-Executive Director', contained just three paragraphs of pertinent data as follows:

=============

"Mark Anthony Crump Hanson, 58, who is a qualified barrister and solicitor, was formerly Chief Executive Officer of Global Banking Corporation in Bahrain from 2006 to 2008.

Mark brings with him extensive regulatory and corporate governance experience having served as a director on several boards and having advised a number of clients in the Middle and Far East during his 34 year career. His experience includes the listing in Hong Kong and New York of Shanghai Petrochemical Company, the first mainland upstream Chinese oil company to list outside of the People's Republic of China, and oil and gas projects in Saudi Arabia.

Previous roles include Chief Executive of Bain Securities Limited, Managing Director of Peregrine Capital Limited, Deputy CEO at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and COO of Crosby Financial Holdings. In addition, Mark was responsible for the establishment of ABN AMRO's investment banking and equity capital market operations in Saudi Arabia."

=============

Each paragraph paints a distinctly 'Eastern' flavour. Let's cut to the chase - Hong Kong is THE place where China does business with the rest of the world:


- Paragraph 1: "Mark Anthony Crump Hanson, 58, who is a qualified barrister and solicitor ..."

Ok then, how well is he qualified and WHERE is he qualified? The answer is "He is a qualified barrister and solicitor in four jurisdictions (New Zealand, the United Kingdom, HONG KONG and Australia)":
http://people.forbes.com/profile/mark-hanson/138470


- Paragraph 2: "His experience includes the listing in Hong Kong and New York of Shanghai Petrochemical Company, the first mainland upstream Chinese oil company to list outside of the People's Republic of China".

FFS people, this is MASSIVE. Do you not realise that Shanghai Petrochemical Company is one and the same as SINOPEC:
http://english.sinopec.com/about_sinopec/subsidiaries/subsidiaries_joint_ventures/20080326/3079.shtml

Mark Hanson was THE man that brought China's first NOC to the rest of the world. He MUST know SINOPEC inside out - he only listed them in both Hong Kong and New York!


- Paragraph 3: "Previous roles include ... Deputy CEO at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange"

Lovely understatement - was that you Ewen? A more complete description of his role in Hong Kong would be "He was later appointed Deputy Chief Executive and Head of Listings at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, where he was instrumental in developing the Exchange's post 1997 strategy, negotiating with the Chinese authorities prior to Hong Kong's return to China. The Governor of Hong Kong recognized Mark's contribution by appointing him a member of the company Law Reform Commission":
http://www.ftconferences.com/commercialproperty/speakerdetails/12/?PHPSESSID=78d20aabc8b55b07aff01e57e3759b66

Mark Hanson was clearly not one of the hangers-on, he is one of THE main men who knows how China - and more specifically SINOPEC - does business with the rest of the world.

So why did GKP select Mark Hanson as one of the new NED's? Some thoughts:

Whatever happens, GKP (or future owner) will HAVE to work with SINOPEC with regard to pipelines. From what we have heard from Vallares and Afren, SINOPEC will be involved in building the KICE pipeline from Taq Taq to Fishkabur at the Turkish border. The KICE pipeline will run just south of Shaikan. GKP's own Shaikan pipeline will also run up to Fishkabur. It is inconceivable that the KRG will not mandate coordination and simultaneous laying of the two pipelines over the section from Shaikan to Fishkabur. IMO.

If you refer back to my previous post on this thread, you will know that my 'rumour' was referencing our 'friend' Mr Kuok. You can be SURE that Mr Kuok will not be able to exert influence on GKP if he really does only have 3% of the stock. IMO, Mr Kuok is not yet our 'friend', as we have all seen that the picture is not pretty when someone with enormous wealth and influence wants to accumulate. I just hope he is 'nearly there'. And the appointment of Mark Hanson (a man after Mr Kuok's own heart IMO) would suggest that the 'influence' is definitely 'already there'.

Mark Hanson is clearly an expert on 'Listings'. A FTSE listing may not be the only option. Please guys, let's not start the ISA thread over again concerning shares listed in Hong Kong LOL.

Perhaps one offer on the table concerns cash + shares, the shares in question being listed on the Hong Kong Exchange? But don't give up on Exxon/Chevron just yet, the 'cash' part could be coming from them. I'm in the GRH1 camp here - GKP's resources are so masssive that a 'global sharing' between US and China may well be in the best interests of everyone. Yes, even you Shari.

We live in exciting times.

GLA,

BBBS

ANALYSIS: Kurdistan's Shaikan field emerges as heavyoil giant
28 November 2011
Platts Commodity News

Dubai (Platts)--28Nov2011/630 am EST/1130 GMT

Iraqi Kurdistan's Shaikan field is shaping up as one the largest Middle East oil discoveries in decades.

But while the field is almost certainly commercially viable, it mostly contains heavy crude that is technically challenging to extract. Shaikan's main Jurassic reservoirs contain crude with molasses-like consistency and 4.5-5% sulfur by weight.

"We have a phased development plan and need to get to plateau in three to five years," Adnan Samarrai, Gulf Keystone's Kurdistan regional manager, said in an interview. "We need more than 40 wells to reach plateau, and there is some idea we could go up to 400."

"To start with we need $2 billion for additional development," he added. "By the end of next year everything is on the table. We come out with a development plan and declare commerciality."

Gulf Keystone CEO Todd Kozel told an oil conference this month in the regional capital Erbil that full field development would cost $7 billion.

He compared Shaikan, with its estimated 10.5 billion barrels of oil in place, to northern Iraq's supergiant Kirkuk oil field, discovered in 1927 and still producing.

A 2010 independent assessment of Shaikan by Houston-based Dynamic Global Advisors (DGA) showed basic similarities between the fields.

In this region of long, parallel ridges near the Iranian border, foothills and mountains are formed from petrified marine sediments, compressed and forced upwards where the Arabian tectonic plate grinds into the Anatolian and Iranian sub-plates.

Layers of limestone, dolomite and shale that once lay under the ancient Tethys Sea still rise in Kurdistan at a rate of several centimeters per year.

According to Samarrai, a veteran Iraqi petroleum geologist, oil migrating from the pressurized shales beneath Iraq's desert has accumulated in porous carbonate rocks and seeps to the surface where the corrugated rock formations have fractured.

The elongated domes of Kirkuk and Shaikan each contain multiple reservoirs.

DGA's initial assessment of Shaikan, a copy of which was recently obtained by Platts, states that Gulf Keystone's Shaikan 1-B well encountered ten distinct oil and gas reservoirs within a net pay interval of nearly 240 meters.

"The Zagros fold-belt borders the northern and northwestern Arabian plate. Conditions suitable for hydrocarbon accumulation occurred on the Arabian plate to the southwest of the Zagros. Subsequent deformation along this plate margin modified but did not reduce the occurrence of hydrocarbons along the deformed Zagros fold-belt," DGA said of the prospect.

It subsequently upgraded estimates of Shaikan's size and oil resources, more than doubling the latter in a 2011 assessment taking into account more detailed seismic data and new well-test results.

But resources are not proven reserves, which represent only oil that may be extracted economically at a given time. For heavy crude, that is typically a low percentage of oil in place.

Gulf Keystone has not completed its appraisal program. But even a low recovery factor would give Shaikan billions of barrels of reserves.

Samarrai estimates that 20% of the heavy crude could be extracted using primary recovery techniques. That could "easily" be boosted to 30% by reinjecting corrosive byproduct hydrogen sulphide gas which is more efficient than other gases at pushing sluggish crude out of reservoirs.

Kurdistan's Natural Resources Minister, Ashti Hawrami, in November said large-scale gas flaring would not be tolerated in the region, so Gulf Keystone will need to develop gas-processing facilities early in Shaikan's development.

That means the Bermuda-registered venture may need to attract a partner experienced in handling dangerous hydrogen sulphide.

France's Total has proprietary gas-injection technology well-suited to exploiting Shai ...Read Full Message
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Spencer Freeman tweeted this...
Exxon have ambitious, exciting developed plans for Shaikan having secured KRG's BIRs for the major oil field.


but, lets not forget a couple of weeks ago, The Independent specifically reported...

It seems likely that Exxon has taken a 20 per cent stake in Shaikan. The Kurdistan government had an option of taking this stake once the field was proven to be commercially viable, and it is this that has been sold on rather than a portion of Gulf Keystone's undiluted 75 per cent holding.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/chevron-to-join-slick-of-oil-supermajors-in-kurdistan-6261405.html


As the BIR is 15%(and is a portion of Gulf Keystone's undiluted 75 per cent holding), there seems to be some confusion (if thats possible with rumours!)

But it could be that the total available slice is KRG's 20% (free carry) plus the 15% BIR, giving Exxon (or Chevron or Knoc) a nice chunk and we still have our 51% W.I.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/81756938/

Realistic point of view.


After reading lsn's copy of Gramachos post on iii...
Re : oilmans discussion with john stafford and ewen.
We are clearly some way off a realistic bid being tabled by any major as we are quite a way off knowing the recovery factor of shaikan,nobody,especially a listed co are going to risk a multi billion dollar bid with as much as 40% swing on the known RF.
Gkp are obviously spemding a small fortune proving this up but its not going to happen in the next month or two by the sounds of it.
Hope im wrong of course,95% in GKP personally !!!

I think your right cyril, am not getting too excited just yet, would be happy to see 2+ for xmas.,.

Fox-Davies Capital Coverage - Oil & Gas

Fox-Davies corporate client & coverage universe as of 30 November 2011:

Company Ticker Ticker Recommendation Recommendation Date Date Target

Aminex AEX LN Equity UNDER REVIEW 16.11.11 0.13 0.03
Borders & Southern Petroleum BOR LN Equity BUY 26.11.10 1.50 0.61
Bowleven BLVN LN Equity UNDER REVIEW 1.11.11 5.50 0.73
Circle Oil COP LN Equity BUY 25.10.11 0.90 0.22
Desire Petroleum DES LN Equity UNDER REVIEW 29.03.11 0.40 0.23
Enegi Oil ENEG LN Equity UNDER REVIEW 18.11.10 0.25 0.09
Falklands Oil & Gas FOGL LN Equity BUY 01.04.11 2.50 0.50

Gulf Keystone GKP LN Equity BUY 21.11.11 3.00 1.63

Gulfsands Petroleum GPX LN Equity UNDER REVIEW 07.01.11 3.50 2.01
Hardy Oil & Gas HDY LN Equity BUY 25.08.11 2.50 1.45
Heritage Oil HOIL LN Equity HOLD 30.03.11 4.20 1.78
Matra Petroleum MTA LN Equity UNDER REVIEW 26.05.10 0.07 0.01
Max Petroleum MXP LN Equity BUY 02.03.11 0.50 0.13
Petrokamchatka PKP CN Equity UNDER REVIEW 14.01.10 C$0.15 C$0.01
Po Valley PVE AU Equity BUY 29.04.10 A$1.50 A$0.165
Range Resources RRL LN Equity BUY 18.11.11 0.27 0.09
Rockhopper Exploration RKH LN Equity BUY 10.11.11 6.00 2.38
San Leon Energy SLE LN Equity BUY 17.11.11 0.50 0.09
Sterling Energy SEY LN Equity HOLD 06.07.11 0.30 0.40
Tower Resources TRP LN Equity HOLD 09.07.10 0.04 0.03
Victoria Oil & Gas VOG LN Equity BUY 29.11.11 0.13 0.0

Spencer_Freeman Spencer P R Freeman
I was shown more intense & indepth detailed developing plans yesterday on 30th Nov which ExxonMobil have for Shaikan. Plans were incredible.