Hope not,we need a positive update,especially from the fraccing program,in the meantime just came across this.
Petroneft (PTR:LN): I own a 1.0% stake in PTR, and have recently written about it here. Petroneft’s in an enviable situation compared to most other resource stocks, with plenty of proved and probable reserves. This is the underlying basis for my valuation, but the market price illustrates how critical cashflow is with an asset based investment. Any value investor likes to pounce on a stock which trades at a large discount to asset value. This can be sometimes be a big mistake. Why?
Well, if the company involved is suffering from significant cash outflows, and has insufficient cash/debt to reach its expected cashflow positive inflection point, you’re probably going to see that share price hammered. There’s nothing the market hates worse than this kind of funding uncertainty, or the risk of actual company failure. And this is the problem – Petroneft has plenty of asset value, but is running out of cash/debt capacity. Problems with initial production have compounded this – these will be solved with time, brains and money, but the funding issue is unlikely to be solved without dilution for the shareholders.
Purely on an asset basis, I calculate Fair Value of about GBP 75p per share. If I assume a share placing large enough to fund 1 year of cash burn (302.6 mio shares @ say GBP 10.25p, a 35% discount, to bring in $49.1 mio), I come up with a diluted value of GBP 48p per share. Which is correct? Well, I’ve already pointed out the best solution (now that PTR’s missed the boat on a decent share price) – a sale/farm-out of reserves, or preferably resources. In fact, I don’t include resources in my valuation, so any resources sale (and they have 100s of million of boe) would improve my (higher) valuation due to cash received and retention of their reserves. It would also eliminate any near term funding issues, hopefully granting the room for a ramp-up in production. Therefore, I think an average of the two approaches is justified, which is a GBP 61p per share Fair Value, and a Potential Upside of 293%.
And the link for the above
http://wexboy.wordpress.com/2012/02/08/the-great-irish-share-valuation-project-iv/