http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

If you look at the leads RKH has (this is based on old "most likely recoverable" figures) :

PL023/024 License Area's.

Beauchene = 145
Bleaker = 193
Concordia = 44
Dolphin = 287
Ernest = 130
Golding = 49
Keppel = 580
Pebble = 186
Saunders = 434
Usborne = 220
Weddell = 254

= 2.5bn bbls recoverable



PL032/033

Sedge = 55
Tyssen = 14
Jason = 350
Sea Lion = 230
Chatham = 65
Meredith = 23
Walker = 68
Louis = 82
Fox = 383
Stephens = 201
Johnson multi Tcf gas
Berkeley = 140
George = 157

= 1.8 bn bbls recoverable



Where you get excited is, well I do, is FOX and STEPHENS.

These are analogues of Sea Lion and with Sea Lion being good these 2 are very much derisked. And look at them, "Fox" is likely twice the size of Sea Lion and Stephens will be not far below Sea Lions size.

And both targets are now very much derisked.

If they drill into 5 or 6 of those leads next year and prove up 50% of them, well, the price of RKH stock will be far far above 2000p a share even after dilution IMO. Thats why this is a damn exciting hold for the longer term, buy them fully paid for and tuck them away.

The Director's figures are always going to look good because they haven't allowed for any dusters, naturally. Your assumption that their strike rate is going to be 50% is also very optimistic, imo, but I do agree that it is worth holding this stock for probable long term gains.
Have trawled through the old posts & I am sure Marky has already posted somewhere, but what is the timetable now for the Ernest drill? (nothing on RKH website).

Ernest to be drilled next hopefully it will encounter Hydrocarbons and a flow test will be conducted then the rig will leave and go over to Sea Lion and will re enter and conduct a further flow test.

If the 3 things in the next 4 month are successful and hopefully the reserves will be upgraded I can honestly see the share price 7+

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/09/282646/markets-live

9.7.2010

We saw RKH management yesterday, who confirmed that the Ernest exploration prospect is likely to be the next to be drilled on its northern Falklands acreage, once the Ocean Guardian rig is released by FOGL/BHP later this month. The result of the FOGL/BHP Toroa-1 prospect, a giant structure with the potential to contain 1.7bn barrels of oil, is expected imminently

RKHs Ernest well is targeting a 156m barrel prospect with a Chance of Success (COS) of 23%, although this may have been derisked somewhat by the success of the recent 242m barrel Sea Lion discovery. On similar metrics to Sea Lion, Ernest could be worth around 280p/share. Following the 30-35 days expected to drill Ernest, the rig will then demobilise and move back to Sea Lion, where the original well will then be re-enterred in anticipation of a testing programme, due to take 45 days to complete. Two separate zones will be tested, with each zone likely to be tested twice, hence this is a relatively slow job. We therefore expect definitive news on the producability of the reservoir by early to mid September. We have a total NAV of 563p/share, which includes 441p/share for Sea Lion and 122p/share for cash and risked upside continue to BUY

Thanks Greek.

Thanks Marky. So best guess spud date for Ernest maybe 1st week august?

The result of the FOGL/BHP Toroa-1 prospect, a giant structure with the potential to contain 1.7bn barrels of oil, is expected imminently .... well that was bollox to start with, so clearly that guy was burnt at the stake

I would like to think so Harry as when the rig left Sea Lion it was hampered by bad weather and terrible sea swell which slowed the rig down getting to FOGL.

There was not enough oil to fill a chip pan thats how bad it was Cynic!!

Earlier than August harry.

21st July spud for Ernest IMO.

Pro...RKH take over the Rig on, circa, 19th so spud maybe by the weekend 24/25th.

Anybody with some new maps ?....with wells indicated ?.

Edit

So it looks like RKH "get control" of the rig on 20th July, so spud will be some time after that date.


http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/07/12/283501/markets-live/

The Sector Watcher.

The Toroa-1 exploration well, located to the south of the Falklands, has failed to find hydrocarbons and has been plugged and abandoned as a dry hole. Obviously bad news for the JV comprising FOGL (49%) and BHP (51%), although sentiment towards the other Falklands players (RKH, DES, BOR) is also likely to be hit, certainly in the short -term. Toroa was FOGLs only shallow water well, with the Ocean Guardian rig now returning to RKH to drill the Ernest prospect and to test the Sea Lion discovery, both located to the north in different geological setttings to Toroa we understand RKH should have the rig by 20 July.

FOGL raised 50m last November, with Toroa budgeted at only 12m net to the group, hence the group is still financially viable. However there is likely to be a long wait for the next drilling news as the groups other prospects are deepwater, with no rig yet contracted this could easily stretch into next year. Whilst todays news is clearly very bad for FOGL we believe the shares could test the 115p/share funding level from last November any pronounced weakness in the other players should be seen as a buying opportunity, particularly for RKH which has the only confirmed discovery to date.

If FOGL just drilled in the southern basin and had a duster, according to the map Ernest is also in the southern basin...what makes this a no brainer....

Balerboy - 13 Jul 2010 13:04 - 2013 of 2013


lol...marky/pro...don't you feel like banging your head against a wall sometimes???

chav, I have Balerboy SQUELCHED, which means I do not see their posts at all. I highly recommend using the SQUELCH feature for troublesome posters, whoever they are.

http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/squelch.php


Click the link, put their name in the box and then click "Squelch" and you will never see their posts again.

Its bliss ! :)

This is the FOGL area & map, but it is confusing without overlaying the RKH map which I haven't been able to do yet.
http://www.fogl.com/fogl/en/Operations/map/leadsprospectsmap