I'm confused Wincanton have less than half the debt and market value of Stobbard but they make a bigger profit!

To compound my sense of confusion Wincanton are continuing to fall whilst Stobbard continue to rise!

I don't think I can resist Wincanton any longer.


What do you think?

I know the dividend might drop, but it wasn't mentioned in the trading update. If it halves it's still almost 5%.

And ...........

Stobart directors have sold while Wincanton buy.

I'm ready to buy at under 1 tomorrow!

Mind you 85p would be good, I'll try not to be greedy!

Anyone sees more than the rising oil price being the killer?

kiwi2007 - 17 Apr'11 - 22:09 - 251 of 259 edit

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One beaten-down share that catches my eye is Wincanton (WIN), the freight and logistics specialist. It lost three quarters of its value since peaking in 2007.

There is no getting around the fact that Wincanton faces painful problems, including high debt and a large pension deficit. The dividend is at risk. Its French division has serious problems. The City fears the company will raise cash, either from asset sales, dividend cuts or a fundraising. These actions could dilute the value of existing shares.

On the positive side, a new management team with experience in turning around underperforming businesses is in place. The company is now focused on cutting costs and debt. It has become much more open about its problems.

The graph shows that prices just returned to the low point that was reached in March 2009. Many chartists view this level as a possible support area. They could be right. The sell-off ended just as prices returned to this area.

What is the best way to play this potential opportunity? There is no single best answer. The right approach is a function of your risk appetite.

The risk/reward trade-off is lopsidedly positive right now for those with the stomach to gamble. Many things can go wrong for Wincanton but the City is well aware of them. I suspect that much of the bad news is already reflected in the price.

But some traders are less tolerant of risk. I fall into this category. Even though the City already recognises that Wincanton might raise cash, experience teaches me that shares often dip once news of a fundraising is announced.

Given my aversion to risk, I shall closely monitor these shares and use any dip linked to fundraising or a dividend reduction as a buy signal. I might miss a fine opportunity by holding back at this moment but my investing philosophy is that there are many other fish in the sea.

Wow!

Thanks for that. It makes me think. I'm one of those toe in water first. Investing has taught me nothing is for certain and only invest what you're happy to lose!

They started off positive this morning but are wobbling again, I think I'll get a small number, if they go up great and well .............at least I've been warned!

Thanks again

hi JRM pardon ME// for saying so BUT you SHOULD never be happy to lose /// but i think you are RIGHT ABOUT THESE SHARES intime they will rise upwards and on wards so to .speak. on my watchlist .

Thanks I think the drop yesterday was due to a downgrade. There's a line in the Express.

I'm not happy losing, I just enjoy the ride you can learn a lot on a bad day!

Just into WIN at 1. Anyone else dipped in as well? Seems a good Divi. ope I've done right.

That's quite a chart.

Just had a small sb @98.80

Up 11% - more volume would be more convincing.

Up again today - albeit on pitiful volume.

Looking good on a bad day!

Still going the right way - again on negligible volume.

Tick tick....

Scrapping the dividend not going down too well - in auction!.

another case of directors forgetting where their fees come from ... I was lucky got out with small profit .... if they had earned them perhaps?

Going the right way again on nearly 1m.

Interim Management Statement.

Wincanton plc (the 'Group') issues the following Interim Management Statement for the period from 1 April 2011 to the date of this announcement.

The Group's trading performance in the period was in line with our expectations.

The Group has secured a number of renewals in the period, including operations for B&Q and Procter & Gamble, and also a number of wins including operations for Forticrete and Jack Wills. Our Mainland European business has started the year well and the Group continues to make good progress in developing our business pipeline with potential new customers.

Trading conditions remain challenging in certain areas, including containers where volumes have been lower than expected. We have also been impacted by the closure of Focus DIY, a long term customer of the Group.

The sale of the three European businesses, announced at the time of our preliminary results in June 2011, is progressing.

Wincanton announces the disposal of its remaining operations in Mainland Europe

15 August 2011

Wincanton plc ("Wincanton" or the "Group"), the leading provider of supply chain
solutions, today announces that it has signed a conditional agreement for the
disposal of its remaining operations in Mainland Europe (the "Disposal") to
Rhenus AG & Co. KG ("Rhenus") via the disposal of Wincanton's Mainland Europe
Holding Company.

The Disposal operations comprise Wincanton's German Intermodal and Contract
Logistic activities, which operate from 38 locations, and Wincanton's businesses
in France, which provide contract logistics and transport services and operate
from 30 locations. Collectively, these businesses employ approximately 3,000
employees who will transfer to Rhenus upon completion of the Disposal.

Consideration from the Disposal will be approximately EUR44m (pre transaction
costs). In addition, Rhenus will assume a net pension deficit of c.EUR30m
resulting in an enterprise value of EUR74m. The consideration will be payable in
cash upon completion of the Disposal. The Disposal will be implemented by way
of a share sale.

The transaction is subject to, inter alia, the approval of Wincanton's
shareholders and a circular outlining the terms of the Disposal, including a
Notice of General Meeting, will be sent to shareholders in due course. The
Disposal is also subject to anti-trust clearance and approvals. Wincanton will
be consulting with relevant employee representative bodies.

In the twelve months to 31 March 2011, these activities generated revenue of
approximately EUR558m, and operating profit of approximately EUR4.1m. At 31 March
2011 Gross assets were approximately EUR181m.

Completion of the transaction will mark the exit of all of Wincanton's Mainland
Europe activities. The net proceeds of the Disposal will be used to reduce net
indebtedness of the Group.

Eric Born, Chief Executive, Wincanton commented:

"The sale of our remaining businesses in Mainland Europe to Rhenus will enable
us to focus on developing our leading position in the UK market, where we have
greater scale and see significant potential for profitable growth. Rhenus has a
strong reputation in the European market and the addition of these businesses to
its portfolio will build on its leading position in intermodal services and
contract logistics. Over the next few weeks, we will work together to ensure
that service levels to our customers are maintained during the transition
period. I would like to personally thank all of my colleagues in these
businesses for their hard work and contribution to Wincanton over the years."

Been on a long journey South, seems to be on a recovery ?

DC - a reasonably upbeat(ish) recent Interim Management Statement - I haven't watched since last year - maybe worth a revisit!