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Traders Thread & Thoughts - Tuesday 6th May (IMT)
Crocodile - 04 May 2003 11:41
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Gold
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S&P &Futures (Click for latest)
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Pre Market Futures (7:30) | |
| FTSE | +7 | ||
| TechMark | +2 | ||
| DAX | -5 | ||
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Hang Seng +18
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Nikkei (Awaiting day Chart) +178
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DOW | -15 |
| S&P | -0.9 | ||
| Nasdaq | -2.2 | ||
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News Headlines:
Although the Dow Jones retreated 47 points
the Nasdaq managed to finish in positive territory closing at its highest
level in 11 months.
The FTSE is set to open higher partly helped by AstraZeneca which has won final U.S. approval for its cancer drug Iressa.AZN The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on Monday it approved AstraZeneca drug Iressa for treating advanced cases of non-small cell lung cancer, the most common form of lung cancer in the United States.THUS 'Despite difficult trading conditions, Data and telecoms turnover grew by 13% to 160.5 million and by 17% to 141.8 million, , gross profit increased 30% to 64.2 million, lifting the margin from 18% to 22% and the operating loss improved from 65.2 million to 50.8 million. Carlton Comms says it will pull out of a proposed merger with rival Granada if the broadcasters are forced to sell their advertising houses for the deal to proceed. Safeway: Philip Green may delay launching a formal bid for UK supermarket chain Safeway and could pull out of the takeover battle altogetherChubb: could receive a takeover offer of 80 pence a share this week from U.S. United Technologies Corp Selfridges: Two more bidders are poised to enter the raceAbey National said it sold the bulk of its AU$1 billion pound project loan book to three Australian banks for an undisclosed sum.British Airways:The Independent said the UK airline is preparing a statement which will reveal a hole in its staff pension fund of up to one billion pounds.MFI is facing a shareholder revolt at next week's annual general meeting after the National Association of Pension Funds urged investors to abstain in voting on pay policy Imperial Tobacco: reported a 40 percent jump in half-year profits on Tuesday and said it was on track to achieve planned savings from its takeover of Reemtsma.They posted pre-tax profits for the six months ahead of analysts forecasts at 353-368 million pounds.
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Crocodile - 04 May 2003 11:41 - 2 of 8
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All GMT |
United Kingdom F)inals (I)nterim |
United States (Click Flag) |
Europe & World |
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Mon 5th May Reports / Data |
UK Closed for May Day Holiday |
Aon Corp (Q1)15.00 US April Non-Manufacturing ISM 49.0 exp. |
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Tue 6th May
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Imperial Tobacco (I), Thus Group (F), Chrysalis (I), Kelda (F), Minorplanet Systems (I), Rank Trading Statement Alliance & Leicester (AGM), Serco (AGM) 09.30 UK April Services PMI 50.2 exp. 09.30 UK April M0 y/y +7.6% exp. UK service sector CIPS (0830 GMT) UK CBI regional trends survey (1000 BST) |
Cisco (Q3) 19.15 US FOMC Rate Announcement April ISM non-manufacturing index April ISM non-manufacturing index (1400 GMT) |
TotalElfFina (Q1), Aegon (Q1) 09.00 EMU April Services PMI 47.9 exp. 11.00 EMU March Unemployment 8.8% exp. Italy April services PMI (0745 GMT) France April services PMI (0750 GMT) French Services PMI (0750 GMT) Germany April services PMI (0755 GMT) Euro zone April services PMI (0800 GMT) |
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Wed 7th May
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BHP Biliton (Q3), eBookers (Q1), Reckitt Benckiser (Q1), Sage (I), Scottish Power (F), Surfcontrol (Q3), Big Yellow Group (F), Bett (I), EasyJet (I), Fenner (I), Incepta Group (F), Rathbone Brother (AGM), Spectris (AGM), Unilever (AGM),Amersham (AGM), Aviva (AGM), Bovis (AGM), Cairn Energy (AGM) |
15.00 US March Wholesale Inventories +0.2% exp. March consumer credit (1900 GMT) |
BNP Paribas (Q1), Bayer AG (Q1),Commerzbank (Q1) 11.00 EMU March German Factory Orders 0.8% exp. |
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Ex Dividend: Abbot Group (2.75), Alfred McAlpine (5.9), Anglo Irish Bank (EUR0.049), Antofagasta (11.385), Ashtenne Holdings (5.4), Bertam Holdings (5.5), Bunzl (7.55), Clinton Cards (6.75), Collins Stewart (4.5), GlaxoSmithKline (9), Goshawk Insurance (2), Highland Gold Mining (US$0.01), Intermediate Capital (21.5), John wood Group (US$0.02), Laird Group (5.4), McCarthy & Stone (3.9), Metalrax Group (3.75), Michael Page International (2.3), Rentokil Intital (3.95) Rexam (9.7), Rowe Evans Investments (4.75), Thistle Hotels (3.4), Trinity Mirror (12.3), Whitbread (14.3), William Hill (5.8) |
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Thu 8th May |
Richmond Foods (I), Signet Q1, Xenova Group (Q1), Enodis (I), Holidaybreak (I), Laura Ashley (F)EasyJet April Traffic Aga Foodservice (AGM), Amec (AGM), Antisoma (Q3), Autonomy (AGM), Cadbury Schweppes (AGM), Hammerson (AGM), Prudential (AGM), Spirax Sarco (AGM), Standard Chartered (AGM), Trinity Mirror (AGM), Xstrata (AGM) 11.00 UK BRC Shop Price Index y/y 12.00 UK MPC Rate Announcement UK March housebuilding stats (0001 GMT) |
13.30 US Initial Claims (w/e 3/5) 440k exp. 14.30 US Greenspan Speaks 19.00 US FOMC Minutes |
Olivetti SpA (Q1), KLM (Q4) 11.00 EMU Q4 Final GDP q/q +0.1% exp. Europe: 12.45 EMU ECB Rate Announcement 13.30 EMU ECB Press Conference |
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Fri 9th May |
BG Group (Q1), Royal & Sun Alliance (Q1) SaForth Ports (AGM), Computercentre Services (AGM) Xstrata (XYA). Rights Issue Ex Date. 09.30 UK March Industrial Production |
Berkshire Hathway (Q1) |
ENI (Q1) 11.00 EMU March German Industrial Production |
| Provisional Calendar For The Following Week | |||
| Mon 12th May |
PPI Input / Output MM /YY April Trade Balance March |
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| Tue 13th May | Abacus (I), BG Group (Q1) British Sky Broadcasting (Q3) Powderject (F), Ultraframe (I)Alfred McAlpine AGM | ||
| Wed 14th May |
Dimension Data (I), Firstgroup (F) Geest AGM, Slough Estates, Bunzl AGM, Gallaher GroupAGM, National Express Group AGM, Royal and Sun Alliance Insurance Group AGM, Woolworths Group PLC AGM Average Earnings 3 Month Y/Y March Unemployment April Unit Wage 3 Mth Manuf March |
1:30 AM Export Prices 1:30 AM Import Prices 1:30 AM Retail Sales 1:30 AM Retail Sales | |
| Thur 15th May |
British Energy preliminary (F), Cable and Wireless (F) De Vere Group (I), Luminar (F) Meggitt (F), Acambis PLC Q1 BOC Group (I), Capital Radio (I) N Brown Group (F), Safeway (F) Carillion AGM, Balfour Beatty AGM, Chelsfield AGM Eurotunnel AGM, GKN AGM, Hanson AGM, Interserve AGM, Logica CMG AGM, MFI AGM St James' s Place AGM United Business Media AGM, Weir Group AGM Bank of England Inflation Report |
8:00 AM NY Empire State Index May 1:30 AM Business Inventories Mar 1:30 AM Core PPI Apr 1:30 AM Initial Claims 1:30 AM PPI Apr 14:15 AM Capacity Utilization 14:15 AM Industrial Production Apr 12:00 PM Philadelphia Fed May | |
| Fri 16th May |
Abbeycrest (F), BT Group (F) Cambridge Antibody (Q2) Dimension Data Holdings (I), Marconi (F) 3i Group (F), Viridian Group (F)Amey AGM, Enterprise Oil AGM IMI AGM, Inchcape AGM Next AGM, Old Mutual AGM Rexam AGM, Selfridges AGM Hilton Group 2003 AGM |
1:30 AM Building Permits Apr 1:30 AM Core CPI Apr 1:30 AM CPI Apr 1:30 AM Housing Starts Apr 14:45 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel. May | |
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Trading Thoughts
Sunday 4th May The FTSE finished the week very close to where it started which I feel is very bullish. All the time we are moving away from the longer term downtrend and I would not be surprised to see the FTSE 4000 level tested within the next few days. The charts are all about the correlations between the indices and tracker stocks. The FTSE will find some resistance at 4000 but I am sure will be taken through this level if Wall street continues its buying spree. The US first-quarter earnings were better than some expected and many analysts are now pricing in growth for the second half of the year and deciding whether to increase exposure to equities. At the present time I would not like to have any longer term short positions on any of the UK Top 50 companies. From the charts if the DOW rises back towards 9000 I could see Barclays & Lloyds following upwards towards 500 points over the next month. The banks do track the general direction very well but tend to over react to the current market trend. With only one technology stock represented in the top 100 FTSE shares I may well move some of my smaller long term shares into this sector. With ARM, Autonomy and Logica CMG high on my shopping list for small initial investments. Last weeks rise was partly explained by news that SARS was being brought under control in Canada. However with its fast mutation rate and its death rate now approaching 7% we should be prepared for more possible bad news on this front. Tuesday We start with Imperial Tobacco which should report higher profits on cost cutting and following the acquisition of Reemtsma last year. Pre-tax profits of 272m are forecast compared with 261m last year with higher prices offsetting lower volumes.Thus business telecoms who also own the Demon internet service provider should announce that is on track to meet its objective of breaking even by next year. However long term with increased competion in the sector I have my doubts on this one!WednesdaySage the only Tech stock in the FTSE 100 are not likely to dissapoint with a strong performance from the UK and US. They have already stated that half-year profits should at least be in line with expectations which would mean a 14% rise on the year earlier. Reckitt Benckiser who make home products such as Harpic release first-quarter results. Despite some losses on exchange rate movements first-quarter earnings shouldl be 15% higher than last year's, with double-digit growth expected to continue for the full year. Scottish Power is expected to unveil pre-tax profits well ahead of market expectations of around 818m when it reports on Wednesday, from 536m in 2002. With its high dividend and possibilities of a take over this could be one to tuck away for the future.ThursdayEasyJet may well have suffered in the first 6 months of this year with a lower seat occupancy. Analysts expect a pre-tax loss of just under 46m but will be more interested in forward bookings.
That's it from me and I'm now off to enjoy this mornings Spring sunshine As always I look forward to reading your trading thoughts. David |
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David@FTSEDOW.COM www.FTSEDOW.com All the above comments are purely a personal opinion and no investment advice is intended. Please do your own research. |
Crocodile - 04 May 2003 11:41 - 3 of 8
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Sunday News 4th May 2003 Abbey National is forcing 2,000 staff to reapply for jobs as part of a huge overhaul of its branch network. The S&P Index and the Nasdaq Index rose for a third straight week as some investors bet corporate profits will pick up in the second half of the year. With 416 of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported quarterly results, first-quarter earnings are up 13.8 percent from a year ago. That's the largest increase since the third quarter of 2000. Analysts forecast earnings will increase 12.6 percent in the third quarter and 21.1 percent in the final three months of the year. |
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Carlton:Granada ITV investors gun for Allen Cordiant advertises auction of itself Baker's prescription for success at Boots O'Neill appointment puts Norish in play Hilton and Marriott target Le Meridien Independent News: BAY Indo caves in to demand for board changes Forth Ports to face shareholders' revolt over executive pay-off deals Orange T-Mobile director goes after defeat BAE job losses anger ministers |
Finance chief shows his faith in Britannic A Share in the Boardroom: HSBC MyTravel is mauled by its Mips Share of the week: ICI Sharecast: Smiths Group Selfridges boss gets big pay rise as battle looms Easyjet faces losses of 50m after Go merger Irish-based diamond house nets Billiton joint venture Xstrata hit by row over rights issue payment |
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| British Land tipped win API battle Rush to join M&S tax challenge Abbey staff to reapply for jobs Philip Green's bid for Safeway hinges on Takeover Panel ruling Hilton Group Meridien rescue being planned Selfridges Williams pressed to drop bid | Decline and fall of Cordiant Out of the forge, into the flames for Corus, Steeling themselves for a new beginning Media diary Granada Marks & Spencer How the Martians took over UK retail | |||||||
| Observer | Carlton: Green threatens to kill Granada merger plan ICI investors to sue in US court |
RSA pays finance director 250,000 bonus - just for turning up Corus Group Renationalise steel, say unions |
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| Independent | Trent engine splutters at Rolls Bondholders cast cloud over Corus |
HP Bulmer: Can the families hold their drink? Cordiant Comms Bad hair day in adland |
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| Inveresk into the black for first time Taylor Woodrow Go-ahead for 30m offices Johnston Press chairman calls for shareholders to vote out fat-cat directors Sausage skin maker Devro told it is not takeover target despite new investment S&N invites bidders for retail pubs business Boots: US specialist eyes Powderject Boots HOF Hunter faces at least three rivals in Selfridges bid Investors raise a glass to Belhaven's profits Thus avoids court after settling dismissal claim Dobbies Garden Centres Group Delusions of garden grandeur ScottishPower to soothe investor dividend worries |
John Wood Group, SMG, S&Newcatle Peace dividend prompts boardroom buys HBOS Howard's cut out for stardom More outlets for Reg Vardy Largest client deserts J Beattie's financial PR arm Havelock flouts best practice rule in CEO deal RBOS Harvard gets down to business Johnston Press Paper tiger with plenty of bite as a deal-maker McCarthy and Stone Developer cashes in on ever increasing demand for retirement homes Hunter faces at least three rivals in Selfridges bid |
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*Buy BPB (BPB) at 297p - iTouch (ITU) at 19p - Fountains (FNT) at 94p - Interior Services (ISG) at 131p - Sterling Energy (SEY) at 7p *Buy Dixons (DXNS), Stanley Gibbons (SGI) and Sector Guard (SGB).*Project Telecom (PJT) and Stagecoach (SGC) fairly priced and Computerland (CPU) good value *Buy Punch Taverns (PUB) - European Motor (EMH) and Malcolm Group (MAL). .. *Sell Ferraris (FER) at 105p.*Sell Whitbread (WTB). |
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*Buy Umeco (UMC) at 237.5p - Rank Group (RNK) at 240p - Warthog (WHOG) (spec) at 12p *Buy Merrydown (MYW) - hold Powderject Pharmaceuticals (PJP).*Sell Dixons (DXNS) at 111.5p. Company Profiles: *Durlacher (DUC) - Intellixis (ILX) - Hemscott (HEM) - Xenova (XEN) - Clinton Cards (CC). The "Aces" of Diamonds: *Firestone (FDI) - Anglo American (AAL) - BHP Billiton (BLT) - RioTinto (RIO) - European Diamonds (EPD). "Safe as Houses":*Countryside Properties (CYD) - Ben Bailey (BBC) - Persimmon (PSN) - Wimpey (WMPY) - Barratt (BDEV) - Fairbriar (FBR) - Propan Homes (PPH). |
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Crocodile - 05 May 2003 21:48 - 4 of 8
Teddy Bear - 05 May 2003 21:50 - 5 of 8
teddy
Crocodile - 06 May 2003 07:36 - 6 of 8
aspex - 06 May 2003 09:13 - 7 of 8
Crocodile - 06 May 2003 09:40 - 8 of 8
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