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Traders Thread - Thursday 25th March (NXT)
Crocodile - 24 Mar 2004 22:26
| UK PreMarket Futures | FTSE +5 | DAX -8 | DOW Unch | S&P +1 | Nasdaq +0.5 |
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| News: | Sorry Your browser is not java capable |
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US equities failed to hold on to early gains as investors become increasingly nervous holding open positions. Next beat forecasts with a 17 percent rise in annual profit to 353.3 million pounds ahead of expectations of 343 million. It said its new financial year had started well with sales were up 3.0 percent in the first seven weeks of its new financial year. The London Stock Exchange said that the average number of trades each day rose to 230,000 from 213,00 in January and February, but said it saw a dip in the number of terminals used by market professionals. More trades less brokers due to computerised trading systems. Tate & Lyle said that overall trading was in line with the company's expectations, and that its outlook for 2005 was unchanged. Johnson Matthey chemicals and metals expects earnings for the year to beat year-earlier levels, but in line with market expectations Man Group hedge fund manager said it expected its pre-tax profits for the year ending March 31, 2004 to be materially ahead of market expectations with sales of around $10.5 billion, pushing funds under management up to $38 billion from $26.1 billion a year ago. FKI said its finance chief would be taking early retirement as part of a shake-up of management and that its underlying annual performance was in line with expectations. 3i Group said that most of its investments were performing satisfactorily and it expected full-year provisions for failing investments to fall "substantially". |
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Alpha Airports Group (F), Cape (F), Capital and Regional (F), Codascisys (F), Entertainment Rights (F), Evolution Group (F), Hardy Underwriting (F), MTL Instruments (F), Next (F), Ottakar's (F), Oystertec (F), Rotork (F), Rotork (F), S and U (F), Symphony Plastic Technologies (F), Thompson Clive (F), Thomson Intermedia (F), Volvere (F), Digital Classics (EGM), Newmark Security PLC (EGM), Brunner Investment Trust (AGM), Crest Nicholson (AGM), Image Scan Holdings (AGM), QA (AGM) Feb BBA Mortgage lending (09:30), Feb Motor vehicle prod (09:30) Q4 Revised business investment (09:30) |
ConAgra Foods 13:30 Chain Deflator-Final Q4 - 1.2% 13:30 GDP-Final Q4 - 4.1% 13:30 Initial Claims 03/20 - 340K 15:00 Existing Home Sales Feb - 6.25M |
Deutsche Lufthansa AG, HeidelbergCement AG Pfeiffer Vacuum Technology, Zapf Creation AG Web.de AG, Evotec OAI AG FJH AG, AWD Holding REpower Systems AG, United Internet AG Clarins, Wendel Investissement Compagnie de Saint Gobain, Bacou-Dalloz |
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ThePlayboy
- 25 Mar 2004 07:01
- 2 of 28
Key DOW Levels for 3/25
UP Above 10,140
DN Below 10,000
Still Consolidating
Dow continues sideways within clear consolidation boundaries.
From prior commentary, "...The Dow traded sideways within the boundaries of a clear consolidation. The index appears to be gearing up for a powerful move; watch this range for a break for direction..."
The Dow continued sideways within the clear consolidation boundaries today, further developing the range from 10,000 to 10,130, seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The fact that the index continues to consolidate shows the indecision in the current market. However, once a break from the consolidation occurs, rest assured that a solid move is very likely to result.
A downside break from the range at 10,000, which is also a highly psychological line in the charts, will likely open the gates to a much steeper decline in the medium term. Conversely, an upside break from the range at 10,130 will lead to a move toward recent highs at around 10,325.
Look for continued sideways movement within the range until a clear and solid break occurs.
Short Term Dow
Short term, the Dow is holding above support at 10,000, seen in the 5 and 15 Minute Charts. Look for short term strength above this level, unless support is crossed tomorrow morning.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we entered the market Short today at 10,044, but stopped out at the entry due to the Breakeven Rule. No other trades were triggered and we are now out of the market. Watch 10,000 down, and 10,140 tomorrow, with 20 point stops.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each pushed sideways within their respective ranges today, further solidifying the consolidations. Look for continues sideways movement until a solid break occurs. *
Summary
The Dow oscillated within the consolidation boundaries today, sharpening the edges of the range from 10,000 to 10,130. The index is clearly gearing up for a solid breakout. Watch for a break from the range to indicate that such a move is likely.
ThePlayboy
- 25 Mar 2004 07:02
- 3 of 28
THURS FTSE PP
R2 4364
R1 4337
PP 4314
S1 4287
S2 4264
(FUTS PP ADD 8)
FTSE closed below its pp on Wed after gaining 3.4pts in the auction! pos brk out up out of the downtrend at 4312 if dow can show some signs of strength Wed without a late sell off (above 10100/25) if not will remain bearish! imho
Crocodile - 25 Mar 2004 07:08 - 4 of 28
Crocodile - 25 Mar 2004 07:08 - 5 of 28
Crocodile - 25 Mar 2004 07:09 - 6 of 28
little woman
- 25 Mar 2004 08:50
- 7 of 28
optomistic - yesterday you posted: are your security setttings suitable? via Tools/internet options/security.
Had a look and it's all goobledegook to me! I have XP, is there are particular setting that should be enabled, which may not be?
Melnibone - 25 Mar 2004 09:01 - 8 of 28
I feel like the market, indecisive.
My swing and P@F charts are telling me we go lower and to short
any pops.
Yet my view on the situation tells me to buy quality stock dips
and sell by the end of the month/beginning of April and then short
any Indice pops.
Maybe we'll get both, I'll just follow the market and my nose, and
maintain disciplined take profit and stop loss stops.
Welcome back TP, been having a nice break?
Melnibone.
ThePlayboy
- 25 Mar 2004 09:12
- 9 of 28
Best to take a breather and adopt the 3rd position, I am to blame for losses but i,m sure no one will deny this is a hard market atm!
Hope your well!
Melnibone - 25 Mar 2004 09:23 - 10 of 28
the effort when the market's like this.
Sometimes best just to sit it out until you get some
firm conviction and recharge the batteries.
Going to have to log off now. Been having trouble with my
D4F order tickets.
Their helpdesk reckon I have a corrupt database and have sent
me a step by step E-Mail on how to fix it.
I'm looking forward to delving into all sorts of folders
I never new existed and deleting stuff.
Lucky they've written it in the form of an Idiots Guide, they
don't know how near the truth they are. :-))
Melnibone.
Crocodile - 25 Mar 2004 09:24 - 11 of 28
ThePlayboy
- 25 Mar 2004 09:25
- 12 of 28
I can clear up the dilema of is it worth the hassle when the mkts like this NO:)
little woman
- 25 Mar 2004 10:41
- 13 of 28
TRIPOLI (AFX) - Royal Dutch/Shell is to sign with Libya today a 200 mln usd contract for offshore gas exploration rights, according to a spokesman for UK prime minister Tony Blair.
The contract could eventually reach a total of 1 bln usd, said the spokesman, who was traveling with Blair, who arrived in Tripoli this morning.
stockbunny
- 25 Mar 2004 11:19
- 14 of 28
Is the FTSE in for a good day? I have a good feeling about it,
we have had long enough on the down-hill ski-slope and now
we are getting on the chair-lifts again!
Ok that's the positive thinking bit now done...hopefully
today WILL be better!!!!
Crocodile - 25 Mar 2004 12:53 - 15 of 28
"Hello, I read often your articles and it sounds like I can ask a question about trading: i am very new in trading but what mystify me is that some days they say shares are mainly a sell day and other days they say everybodey is buying- that does not make sense to me because if somebody sells somebody else buy which is the same? Cheers sconra"
Yes of course you are right! But it can give some indication to market pressure / sentiment.
D.
Melnibone - 25 Mar 2004 13:14 - 16 of 28
Trouble is, I've still got order ticket problems.
Another E-Mail sent off to the Help Desk.
I don't fancy trading on a platform that may have a corrupt
database, never know what I might end up buying or selling.
God, just think if I received a statement quoting me long
on TWT or some other such load of rubbish!
Looks like I'll be spreadbetting the S@P instead until this
is sorted out.
Watched Tom H. on the Bloomberg TA spot this morning.
He seems to be thinking much the same as me. Maybe we are
all thinking the same and it will end up as self fulfilling.
He mentioned the breaking of the last swing low on the FTSE,
which caused me to voice my concerns yesterday if you remember.
If we now make a lower high and drop down below it again
that will tend to confirm a short term trend change.
He also mentioned the 4150 area as well, which I have also
quoted as my initial target price if this down swing continues.
Keep a weather eye on your longs guys.
Melnibone.
stockbunny
- 25 Mar 2004 13:30
- 17 of 28
Do you think it could regress as far as 4150?
I've read your post twice and hope I'm mis-reading it...
little woman
- 25 Mar 2004 13:33
- 18 of 28
Personally I've been using stop lossess and so far in the last 2 weeks only one has been triggered.
little woman
- 25 Mar 2004 13:55
- 19 of 28
stockbunny
- 25 Mar 2004 13:58
- 20 of 28
nostromo - 25 Mar 2004 14:23 - 21 of 28
Regards
Dave
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