http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

Oil price to double says Iran

hmm?

http://www.pukmedia.com/english/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=10729:-krg-delegation-heads-to-us&catid=29:kurdistan-region&Itemid=385

Goldmans note from pfc30 on 3i:

Kurdistan: political risk vs. geological upside
Kurdistan is one of the last, underexploited, major
onshore basins open to independents. We assess
the potential downside for a renegotiation of fiscal
contracts and believe that even in the event of
technical service contracts being introduced, NPV
support of c.US$1.2/bl for pre-sanction oil assets
could exist. We also believe that M&A is likely to
consolidate the region. We initiate on Afren and
Petroceltic with a Buy and Genel with a Neutral

Afren (AFRE.L): Diverse geography and portfolio combines with attractive valuation; Buy 48
Asset overview 52
Genel Energy (GENL.L): Pure play on Kurdistan; cash offers additional optionality; Neutral 53
Asset overview 57
Cash offers opportunity to create more value 58
Petroceltic International (PCI.L): Algerian asset undervalued, initiate as Buy 59
Asset overview

Gulf Keystone (GKP.L): Down to Neutral

Gulf Keystone: Target price reduced as a result of the dilutive impact of an equity placement and adjustments to prospect sizes
following triangulation with partner data. New TP 343p

By
scaramouche :-

The questions I ask myself when I see T/O predictions like we have seen today are:

1. Is the source credible?
2. Are the figures quoted reasonable?
3. Is there much in the way of supporting evidence?

Firstly, there seems to be much to back up the credibility of Nobletrader. One of our trusted posters, oilman63, has really put his head above the parapet by saying that he believes this source to be reliable. In addition to this, we have seen a series of predictions from nobletrader in the past which the general consensus seems to be were pretty close to the mark. I have not followed his posts closely but I am prepared to concede that he is at least CREDIBLE.

Secondly, if we take what we know already about Shaikan, Sheikh Adi and Ber bahr, it is reasonable to assume that a prospective buyer might use a 30% RF and start with the P50 figures to date as the basis for their valuation.

Shaikan: 10.5 billion x 54.4% Net WI x 30% = 1714 million barrels of reserves.
Sheikh Adi : 1.9 billion x 80% Net WI x 30% RF = 456 million reserves.
Akri Bijeel: 2.4 billion x 12.8% Net WI x 30% RF = 92 million reserves.
So, the total at this point is 2262 million barrels of reserves.

On top of this, we know that GKP has about 220 million ($350 million) of refundable costs based on their capital expended to date, and maybe a further 150 - 200 million of funds left following the recent placing and what remained from their previous cash in the bank. Let us call it 400 million overall.

We also know that, based on $100 oil, GKP gets around $8 NET PROFIT per barrel based on the terms of the PSC, but that a buyer will also want to benefit from their purchase of GKP. That $8 could therefore be halved with $4 going to GKP... and $4 to the buyer. This figure is also reasonable when you consider that TSCs for the development of known fields in Southern Iraq pay $2 per barrel, and Shaikan could now be regarded as a known field.
Feed these numbers into the calculations and you get 2262 million barrels of reserves x $4, plus about $600 million = $9.6 billion.

Under this scenario, you can certainly get somewhere close to the alleged bid of $10.4 billion from Chevron if it was tabled today.

Given our future expectations for Shaikan and the other fields in which GKP has an interest would this be a REASONABLE offer? Personally, I dont think so, as it allows virtually nothing for the upside and we already know that Shaikan-4 , Bekhme-1 and Ber Bahr-1 are very likely to increase those OIP figures.

However, there is certainly an argument that, given political concerns and other uncertainties, this figure might have appeared on the table. For the moment, I will therefore reluctantly accept that the answer to REASONABILITY OF THE FIGURES might be a Yes.

And finally, to my third question as to the supporting evidence that a bid might be tabled by Chevron now?

We have read that Chevron was amongst the companies recently having talks with the KRG; a recent newspaper article referred to Chevron having run the slide rule over Shaikan; and GKPs own Adnan Samarrai was quoted as referring to Chevron as being interested in GKP in as very recent article, when Total and Chevron were both mentioned as having the capability of dealing with the removal of hydrogen sulphide. And of course Exxons entry into Kurdistan does seem to have paved the way for the imminent arrival of another U.S. super-major.

So, yes, I think we can put a tick in the box for EVIDENCE as well.

*** It therefore seems apparent to me that Nobletrader's first claim is certainly feasible although not yet proven.***

But what of the suggestion that Sinopec might have offered a bid that was perhaps twice as much as Chevrons $10.4 billion, or more but the KRG have declined it?

Sinopec are known to have bought out Addax by making a very high bid for their assets in 2009, and China are known to be willing to pay much higher sums than normal per barrel to guarantee their future oil security.

The Chinese are also known to have offered much more for Genel than Tony Haywards Vallares did. Genels CEO Mehmet Sepil confirmed at the Vallares/Genel launch that THs bid was not the highest offer, with the implicastion being that it would however allow Genel to continue to benefit from future discoveries. But what if the real reason was that the KRG wanted a high profile figure like former BP CEO Tony Hayward to help bolster confidence in Kurdistan, and exercised their influence in the rejection of the Chinese offer?

So, there is much to suggest that the Chinese might well have made a far higher offer, but that political influences might dictate that a lesser offer be accepted from a supposedly much more influential ally. I'd have to give this part of the rumour a tick for feasibility too.

*** In conclusion, I have to say that there is much to support the latest rumours from Nobletrader. I have ticks in the boxes for all of my original questions, plus a recognition that the Chinese are likely to have tabled a much higher bid.****

But here is where I feel that we should be asking ONE FURTHER QUESTION....

What solution would actually be BEST for ALL parties Kurdistan and Iraq, Chevron and Sinopec, the shareholders (no doubt bottom of the pile!).... and WORLD ORDER? You see, ultimately I truly believe that there is actually much more at stake than just the value ascribed to our GKP shares!

The solution we are led to believe that the KRG are backing is that Chevron (or perhaps Exxon) will lift the Crown jewel of Kurdistan, as their prize for bringing U.S political might to the aid of the KRG, and that this will get the ICG off their backs for good.

BUT if the rumoured bid transpires and American influence expands in Kurdistan, while the Americans would be their allies, the Chinese would be angered that for a second time that they were left out in the cold; the ICG would feel that the U.S powers were being used as a weapon against them, and foreign investors like ourselves would undoubtedly be wary of investing in that region for fear of being ripped off again. I am NOT convinced that this would really be the best solution for anyone.

IMO, there is a second and far more effective option... and certainly one which should be carefully considered by GKP and the KRG in the course of the ongoing negotiations.

Let us say that the Chevrons slightly contrived offer amounts to 8 per share, while Sinopec had been willing to offer 16 based on what they know about GKPs assets and potential. The compromise figure would then be around 12.

If an arrangement could therefore be made which allowed both Chevron and Sinopec to have an EQUAL SHARE in all of GKPs assets, this would bring about a Partnership between 2 oil giants keen to develop and exploit GKPs huge discoveries; allow both companies to bring their respective skills and expertise to Kurdistan; and ensure that both the American and Chinese super-powers would be adding their influence to the security of the region.

Furthermore, from an investment perspective, there would be none of the signs of the stitch-up of foreign investors who had chosen to risk their money in the Wild West as Iraq/Kurdistan is coming to be known, to the detriment of the image of the region.

IMHO, OIL is such an important global resource and its relevance to world order is so great that it would be foolhardy in the extreme if the KRG was to ignore a perfectly reasonable compromise solution, make themselves totally reliant upon their friends from the USA... but simultaneously alienate the Chinese.

Maybe some people have doubts about the ability of the Americans and Chinese to work together, but all the evidence is actually very different. Sinopec has undergone a number of joint ventures in the past with the U.S oil giant ConocoPhilips; and Sinopec and Chevron have collaborated on a number of projects including an Indonesian gas project, a deal signed in December 2010.

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90778/90860/7220369.html

So, Todd, if youre reading this, I sincerely hope that you ensure that the KRG consider not only the benefits that might arise from a bid for GKP by the USAs Chevron, but also whether their own interests might be better served by some kind of joint solution that also includes CHINAs Sinopec.

GKP's potential 100 BILLION barrels across all 4 licences is surely rather too much for just ONE oil super-major and perhaps.... more than enough for TWO!

AIMHO and please DYOR.

GLA, scaramouche

A must view video imho,70mins long including questions.

http://www.goldmoney.com/video/martenson-presentation.html

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/05/iraq-basra-autonomy-idUSL5E7N51YM20111205

http://www.krg.org/articles/detail.asp?rnr=223&lngnr=12&smap=02010100&anr=42594

http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2011/12/08/kurdistan-gateway-iraq/?hpt=ibu_c2

m oilman63 on iii -

h6
http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn:GKP.L&thread=9056507&it=le&action=list

From scaramouche.

This post is in two parts and from Scaramouche on III
I first posted on this board on 1 December 2009 with a post perhaps prophetically titled The Land of Giants.

If anyone had told me then that I would still be contributing to these discussions some 2 years later, I would have laughed! But here I am, with my great hopes for this investment undiminished, and still in effect on course for my (Olympic) dream.

The characteristics I most admire about our Olympians are that they continually set themselves challenging targets; they do everything humanly possible to meet and exceed those targets; and they never ever give up. Although few of us, I suspect, can but dream of competing at such events, IMHO we would do well to maintain much the same ideals!

In the last few days, what we have seen on this board though is IMO the difference between those who set their aspirations very high and those who are broadly content to accept whatever happens. There is nothing wrong with either view... but I suppose you could say that I prefer to see the bar set high!

THE RUMOUR that GKP may be about to receive a bid from Chevron for $10.4 billion (or about 7.50 per share) has seen many hinting that the end is nigh!, and we might just as well accept it as a fait accompli. After all, we will all do well, the KRG does perhaps have some justification in influencing who gets to take on GKPs assets, and no doubt Uncle Sam will prosper in the end.... with scant regard for what we as investors might think is fair. - I dont subscribe to that view.

I have written at length as to why I believe that the rumour itself is likely to have some basis in Fact. But I am not now convinced that the alleged Sinopec offer of maybe 25 per share is real since, to me, GKP has yet to prove up sufficient of its assets to warrant quite the level of disparity that we have been discussing.

Nor am I convinced that the KRG would ACTIVELY intervene in a clearly unreasonable manner, so as to effectively deny us the right to anything like the true worth of the company. If they do, I think we should prepare to come out fighting!

What concerns me most though is that it appears to me that many investors may have already hit the wall and have little enthusiasm left for completing what has undoubtedly been a demanding Marathon for many.

I have seen a growing number of what I consider Unproven ASSUMPTIONS stated as though they are facts, and I believe that this may have an influence on deflecting us from our main objectives:

1. I have read that the Institutions would happily accept an offer of 7.50 per share (certainly 10), especially with the SP at 171p, as their focus is on their annual targets and bonuses. That may be true for some but, for those that have done their homework, it would be to wilfully throw away a much greater potential opportunity.

2. I have read that peoples Fears have been heightened by the Global uncertainties that have been prevalent throughout 2011, and that 2012 could be worse... so any reasonable offer now would be a good way of eliminating that risk. But where is that braveheart mentality that so many have spoken of in the past?

3. I have read that, since the OGL may not be passed quickly, any would-be buyer would have to take this into account when tabling their bid. They might do - but maybe it is just a convenient excuse for CHEVRON to join the party now, while Malikis visit to Washington tomorrow may actually herald a new era for US/Iraqi relations and the imminent removal of some of those hitherto challenging political barriers. I think we should always be prepared to raise our own expectations!

4. And I have read that we could be some years off being able to prove up our assets fully, with the result that we must all make a direct choice between accepting a good offer now, or perhaps having to wait for an indefinite period for another one to come along. But, if so, what has happened to that competitive bulldog spirit, and who said that,

Topsy Turvy - 11 Dec'11 - 22:45 - 136955 of 136956

I don't know how long these things normally take, but say for the sake of argument a bid comes in this week. TK could either reject it if ridiculously low, or put it to the board for consideration and subsequently to shareholders if it appeared more realistic. Surely he could also "advise" shareholders if he felt it was rather on the low side, after all he knows better than anyone here what is in the pipeline so to speak regarding increases of oil in place, drilling progress, etc. He may even already have a shrewd idea of actual proven reserve figures, or at the very least know exactly when these are likely to be revealed by Ryder Scott. I'm sure that strengthening of the BOD was not carried out just for fun, and I suspect that one of the reasons might have been to court a white knight or two in the event of a hostile cheapskate bid.

Presumably shareholders would also have to be given a reasonable time in which to vote in favour of or against a specific offer. What sort of time are we talking about? Days or weeks? While all this is going on the drills keep turning for GKP and any competing potential bidders sense the urgency of the situation if they are not to miss out on the opportunity altogether. There must be majors out there simply waiting for the first mover in this game before attempting to trump it! Serious players will already know what they can potentially afford to pay if push comes to shove, and how few other opportunities exist on anything like this scale.

rockefella - 11 Dec'11 - 22:50 - 136956 of 136956

Follow on
And I have read that we could be some years off being able to prove up our assets fully, with the result that we must all make a direct choice between accepting a good offer now, or perhaps having to wait for an indefinite period for another one to come along. But, if so, what has happened to that competitive bulldog spirit, and who said that, in this Herculean test of endurance, holding shares in GKP was ever going to be easy?

Seriously though, I do share many of the same concerns that are outlined above, but I have an uneasy feeling that we are being railroaded into thinking that we will have NO CHOICE but to accept a so-called done deal. What I see as the deliberate suppression of the SP since April 2011 to a fraction of its intrinsic value, has I believe also helped to condition us to almost grateful acceptance.

But, with so much news on the horizon, I do wonder why we are thinking like this...

Bekhme-1 results should be out BY THE END OF DECEMBER and could add 6 billion (P50) to the OIP figures.

Shaikan-4 seems to have been drilling forever, and is strongly expected to see a big increase in our OIP figures for Shaikan... VERY SOON.

Ber Bahr-1 has been drilling for 2 months (since 10 October 2011), and has a target depth of only 2100m. Oil shows could be announced... ANY DAY NOW.

Shaikan-6 is scheduled to spud this month and, only 6-7 months from now, should reveal the OWC level, with the heightened expectation of proving that Shaikan is full to spill.

As I mentioned in a recent post, there are those out there who have known for nearly 2 years what GKP is sitting on, and data in the course of the next 6 months could so easily reveal the links between Shaikan, Sheikh Adi and Ber bahr and demonstrate the existence of ONE colossal 'connected' structure.

Given all this, and the likelihood that we may have to wait only A FEW SHORT MONTHS to see the fulfilment of our dreams, why would anyone Institution , HNW investor, PI or member of GKPs BoD - choose to give way to the first offer that appears on the table? They always have a choice!

Of course, I can certainly see why Chevron (or maybe Exxon) might want to persuade some of the more battle-weary investors to part with their shares before those few months elapse. But if, like me, you see this as something akin to the pursuit of the Olympic dream, you will surely want to see this through to the bitter end.

*** I very much hope that many of those institutions and HNW investors who are presently heavily invested in GKP therefore get to see and think about the contents of this post, and consider whether they would be making a huge mistake by bowing to the pressure which will very likely soon be put on them to sell... sooner than they should ***.

Incidentally, the 2012 London Olympics are scheduled to start on 27 July 2012 and most would I think agree that this is NOT very long away.

By the same date, I would personally be surprised if we had not already hit TD on SH-6, and proven up a MASSIVE increase from the current OIP figures.... which already total 14.8 BILLION barrels (P50).

I can also easily imagine TK standing on a Kurdistan podium clutching his own Gold Medal, with a Nebuchadnezzar of champagne in his hands, and a banner behind him with the inscription.... I always knew it was Filled to spill!

Yes, rightly or wrongly, I AM still chasing THAT dream!

GLA, scaramouche

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-1613425

http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/business/2011/12/12/marketplace-middle-east-gulf-keystone-kurdistan-iraq-oil.cnn

13 December 2011

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (AIM: GKP)
("Gulf Keystone" or "the Company")

Kurdistan Operational Update
Gulf Keystone today provides an update on its ongoing exploration and appraisal programme in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, which includes the Shaikan block, a major discovery with independently audited gross oil-in-place volumes of between 8 billion barrels to 13.4 billion barrels calculated on the P90 to P10 basis with a mean value of 10.5 billion barrels.

Shaikan-4 Appraisal Well

Gulf Keystone has completed drilling of the Shaikan-4 appraisal well, 6 km to the west of the Shaikan-1 discovery well, to a total depth (TD) of 3,387 metres in the middle Triassic with 2,375 metres of total gross pay interval. The well has been drilled through the Jurassic (Sargelu, Alan, Mus and Butmah formations) and the upper and middle Triassic (Baluti, Kurre Chine A and Kurre Chine B formations) with an indication of potential new Jurassic reservoirs in Sargelu sands and Barsarin carbonates.

The Company is now embarking on a well testing programme for Shaikan-4 which will target several formations in the Jurassic and Triassic, including the Chia Gara/Barsarin, Sargelu, Butmah, Kurre Chine-A, Kurre-Chine-B and Kurre Chine-C formations.

Preliminary results from Shaikan-4 formed part of the new data used by Dynamic Global Advisors (DGA), independent Houston-based exploration consultants, to calculate the most recent significant upgrade of the gross oil-in-place volumes for the Shaikan discovery announced in November 2011.

Shaikan-5 Appraisal Well

The Shaikan-5 appraisal well, 6 km to the north-east of the Shaikan-2 appraisal well, has drilled to a measured depth of 856 metres and 20" casing is currently being set. The well will then continue drilling to the estimated TD of 3,500 metres subject to technical conditions.

Shaikan-6 Appraisal Well

The move of the WDI 842 rig to the location of the Shaikan-6 appraisal well is ongoing. The well, which will be drilled 9 km to the east of the Shaikan-2 appraisal well, is due to spud in December 2011. Estimated TD for Shaikan-6 is 3,800 metres subject to technical conditions.

Shaikan oil sales

Gulf Keystone has recommenced sales of the Shaikan crude to the domestic market of the Kurdistan Region of Iraq at a rate of about 1,500-2,000 barrels of oil per day. This initial rate for the crude produced at the Shaikan-1 & 3 Extended Well Test (EWT) facilities has been set to meet current domestic oil sales specifications. Volumes of oil production and sales, both into the domestic and export markets, are due to increase significantly after the ongoing upgrade of the Shaikan-1 & 3 EWT facilities has been completed.
Gulf Keystone is the Operator of the Shaikan block with a working interest of 75 per cent and is partnered with Kalegran Ltd. (a 100 per cent subsidiary of MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas Plc.) and Texas Keystone Inc., which have working interests of 20 per cent and 5 per cent respectively.

Ber Bahr-1 Exploration Well

The first exploration well on the Ber Bahr block has drilled to a measured depth of 1,765 metres at the top of the Triassic with hydrocarbons indications observed in the well. Wireline logging is underway which will be followed by running of 9 5/8" casing. The well will then continue drilling to the estimated TD of 2,100 metres.

Gulf Keystone has a 40 percent working interest in the Ber Bahr block operated by Genel Energy, which holds a 40 percent working interest in the block. The Kurdistan Regional Government has a 20 percent carried interest in the Ber Bahr Production Sharing Contract. The Operator's resource estimate for the Ber Bahr block is 1.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent-initially-in-place.

Bekhme-1 Exploration Well

The testing programme for Bekhme-1, the second exploration well on the Akri-Bijeel block drilled 20 km to the north-east from the Bijell‑1 discovery well, is ongoing. After the testing programme has been completed in December, the Operator will issue an appropriate announcement.

Gulf Keystone has a 20 percent working interest in the Akri-Bijeel block operated by Kalegran Ltd., 100% subsidiary of MOL Hungarian Oil and Gas Plc., which holds 80 percent working interest in the block. Operator's P50 resource estimate for the Akri-Bijeel block is 2.4 billion barrels of oil-in-place.

John Gerstenlauer, Gulf Keystone's Chief Operating Officer commented:

"Following our recently completed tests at the Shaikan-2 appraisal well, we plan to replicate this successful programme at Shaikan-4. Our preliminary results for this well are very promising and we look forward to the Shaikan-4 well testing programme which is yet another step in the process of unlocking the full potential of the giant Shaikan discovery in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. In this regard, the recommencement of our domestic oil sales is particularly significant as we prepare to upgrade the existing test production facilities and ramp up both domestic sales and oil exports of the Shaikan crude in the first half of 2012."

Gulf Keystone has completed drilling of the Shaikan-4 appraisal well, 6 km to the west of the Shaikan-1 discovery well, to a total depth (TD) of 3,387 metres in the middle Triassic with 2,375 metres of total gross pay interval. The well has been drilled through the Jurassic (Sargelu, Alan, Mus and Butmah formations) and the upper and middle Triassic (Baluti, Kurre Chine A and Kurre Chine B formations) with an indication of potential new Jurassic reservoirs in Sargelu sands and Barsarin carbonates.


with 2,375 metres of total gross pay interval.

Excellent update.

The next one is the biggie.

Look at the gross pay at SH-4 -wow.

Probably waiting for the operator to (GENL)to release news fo oil play in B/Bahur?

By Khayoun Ahmad

Azzaman, December 12, 2011

The government has transferred $427 to Iraqi Kurds as part of an agreement to settle differences over the development of oil fields, said Finance Minister Rafie al-Essawi.

PS. think that should be $427m?

.

.

E&P News
Mirabaud Securities
13 December 2011



This morning Gulf Keystone (GKP LN) announced that it has completed the drilling of deep appraisal well Shaikan-4. The well has reached TD of 3,387 metres in the middle Triassic having encountered the thickest net pay count on the field to date (as announced on 5/9/11). We note that preliminary results from this well were incorporated into the November resource update and therefore todays news is unlikely to significantly impact field volumetrics. A number of tests are planned across formations in the Jurassic and Triassic, which will include tests on potentially new reservoirs in Sargelu formation sands and Barsarin carbonates.

At the Shaikan-5 deep appraisal well, drilling has reached 856 metres of the 3,500 metres planned TD. Currently the 20 casing is being set. The next appraisal well, Shaikan-6, is due to spud in December. This well will be the furthest step-out to the east, some 9 km east of Shaikan-2, and has a planned TD of 3,800 metres. Meanwhile sales from the EWT on Shaikan-1 and 3 to the domestic market have recommenced at a rate of 1,500-2,000 bopd, which was set to meet current domestic oil sales specifications. These rates are expected to increase significantly (previous recommendations suggested to over 10 kbopd) once the facilities upgrade is completed.

The company also currently has two exploration wells drilling. The Genel-operated Ber Bahr-1 has reached the top of the Triassic at a depth of 1,765 metres. Indications of hydrocarbons have been observed, and wireline logging is underway. On completion, drilling will continue to the estimated TD of 2,100 metres. At the MOL-operated Bekhme-1 exploration well tests are ongoing. The company expects the programme to complete later in the month, following which an announcement will be made.

While the appraisal results on Shaikan are encouraging, we are rapidly approaching the point where the upside in this asset is potentially capped by the 25 year life of the production license. The real excitement in this mornings announcement is from Ber Bahr. The seemingly cautious comment relating to this exploration well reflects the fact that information flow has been constrained by the operator Genel but we understand from GKP that the initial results are similar to those observed in early Shaikan wells. This suggests that Ber Bahr could be the groups fourth material discovery although test data will be crucial to determining reservoir quality and hydrocarbon phase.