What a chart, further to go, or not
Comments please

More exposed to the price of oil than exploration strikes but also less risk of a further crash....just depends on what you want .....

In fact Argos Resources have gone up the most....and that's because of their proximity to a discovery......they might have big oil and gas reserves...

Stock of the week: Premier Oil gets discovered - Lee Wild - Fri, 10th April 2015 - 14:51

It's been all about oil this past week. The price of the black stuff rose 10% in a matter of days and Shell's (RDSB) $47 billion offer for BG (BG.) marks the biggest industry takeover in years. Predictably, oil companies dominate the list of top share price performers and the FTSE 350 Oil & Gas index is up an impressive 6%. Unfortunately, we can only pick one company and this week Premier Oil (PMO) just shades it.

The North Sea and Falkland Islands operator is up 18% in the past five days, from 133p to 157p currently, a five-week high. Momentum began to build at the end of last week when Premier announced that the Zebedee well had discovered 81 feet of net oil-bearing reservoir and 55 feet of net gas-bearing reservoir.

"We now look forward to the results of the upcoming Isobel Deep well, potentially the highest impact well in this campaign," says exploration director Andrew Lodge. The results of this well in the southern part of the North Falkland Basin are expected in late April.

The price of Brent crude is up from less than $54 a barrel the Thursday before the Easter holiday to a high of $59.25 less than a week later.

Deutsche Bank is certainly excited about prospects.

"The well is testing the southern extent of the basin and success could establish a second, discreet hub, potentially equivalent in size to Sea Lion to the north," writes the DB oil team, which has a 230p target price on Premier. "In a farm-down scenario, we believe the prospect of multiple development projects would enhance the overall appeal of the basin, support individual project economics and provide optionality in any disposal discussions.

"Using Premier estimates, the Isobel well is targeting c. 55mmboe of resource with the potential to de-risk 243mmboe across the Elaine/Isobel fan complex. Isobel represents 2p/9p (risked/unrisked) of our ~325p risked NAV [net asset value]."

Of course, Shell's bid for BG has reignited speculation that the oil industry is about to witness the most significant round of consolidation since the late 1990s. Premier has already fended off one takeover approach - from Ophir Energy (OPHR), which has just bought Salamander Energy (SMDR), this time last year - and would clearly make an attractive target.

Trading and Operations Update 13 May 2015

Premier today provides the following trading update for the period 1 January to 30 April 2015. This update is issued in advance of the Company's Annual General Meeting which is being held today at the Institute of Directors at 11.00am.


Highlights
· Production averaged 60.2 kboepd to 30 April; full year guidance maintained at 55 kboepd excluding new production from Solan
· Improved progress was made on the completion and commissioning of the Solan project with first oil targeted for later this year
· First oil from Catcher remains on schedule for 2017; progressing Sea Lion and Vette for 2016 sanction decision
· Oil and gas discovery at Zebedee, Falkland Islands; Isobel Deep, Falkland Islands, and Anoa Deep appraisal, Indonesia, drilling
· Delivering significant cost reductions for 2015 via sustainable savings in operating costs and reduced G&A spend
· Significant liquidity with cash and undrawn facilities of $1.3 billion

Tony Durrant, Chief Executive, commented:
"We have achieved a strong start to the year notwithstanding oil price volatility. Year to date we have delivered a robust production performance, progressed our development projects, achieved exploration success in the Falklands and actively managed our cost base. Our focus remains on delivering our committed projects and managing our balance sheet while maintaining optionality in the portfolio for future growth as the oil price recovers."

StockMarketWire.com
Premier Oil has concluded two separate transactions in relation to its operated Solan project, West of Shetland.

It has acquired Chyrsaor's 40% interest in the Solan field for nil upfront consideration. In return, Chrysaor will receive the following contingent payments from a notional 40% interest in the field's net operating cash flow:

- A payment of up to $3 million a year which will be offset against any subsequent royalty payments and net production interest (NPI);

- Royalty payments totalling up to $100 million after allowing for repayment to Premier of the notional outstanding loan of $530 million plus accrued interest;

- A NPI once Chyrsaor's notional 40 per cent equity interest reaches a net positive position after allowing for the notional repayment of the loan and accrued interest and after deducting Chrysaor's notional 40 per cent share of total project capex, opex and decommissioning costs.

As a result of this transaction, Premier will consolidate 100% of the Solan field's production, revenues and capex in its financial results.

Premier currently estimates that the royalty payments and the NPI would become payable at an average oil price above $75/bbl and $100/bbl, respectively.

Separately, Premier has entered into a $100 million agreement with FlowStream Commodities, subject to DECC approval. FlowStream will make a $100 million upfront payment to Premier in return for the proceeds from 15 per cent of Premier's production from the Solan field for a period of time, the duration of which is dependent on the Solan field's production levels and future oil prices.

Project operational update:
With improved weather, better progress has been made with the commissioning work on the Solan facilities, West of Shetland. The Victory flotel has now moved to a new location and will be replaced by another flotel from early August. In the meantime, it is anticipated that work will continue using a 'walk-to-work' vessel.

The Ocean Valiant rig is now on location with the drilling of the second pair of producer-injector wells to commence imminently. First oil is still targeted for the fourth quarter this year.

Oilers hitting new lows again ...

And again new lows today....

Cheap oil?
Another big faller is Premier Oil (LSE: TLW), whose shares are down 66% in the past 12 months, to 108p. But the thing with Premier is, it has already written down the value of a lot of its assets as the price of oil has slumped, yet its shares are still trading at only around 0.5 times net asset value.

And Premier is expected to be profitable, with a forecast return to decent earnings for 2016 dropping the P/E as low as 10.3. The oil price over the next couple of years could give Premier Oil investors a somewhat rocky ride, but at today’s valuation I see a relatively modest downside risk and plenty of scope for an upwards re-rating when oil finally recovers.

Interim results due on Thursday should shed some more light.


http://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2015/08/14/3-shares-for-the-week-ahead-bovis-homes-group-plc-glencore-plc-and-premier-oil-plc/

Could go below 100p incredible.

Yes - I've just been revisiting these - temping!

No one is in a hurry while oil prices still falling.

At 8.43am, WTI and Brent crude were down more than 1%

That's the problem , i'm looking at PMO and TLW but i don't think oil is going to turn around any time soon .
There could be huge gains to made somewhere down the road on some of these oilers provided they can stay afloat .

Barclays Capital Overweight 103.50 103.50 190.00 190.00 Reiterates

Huge debt pile here and that can't be serviced with this oil price for sure.

I think a wave of administration over the next 12 months throughout this sector sadly. A generation of investors taken out. Hopefully wrong, but I just don't see a sudden commodities rebound on the horizon. Look at LMI drowning by the day. Astonishing times.

No change of stopping the rot so far, gone under 100p just now
oil prices holding well today after yesterday's small bounce
Hold onto your cash the chart says

They say "hold cash and buy at the bottom"
but were is the bottom?

Same for TLW ...No end in sight at the moment .

Could this fall to 70p in the next month.

By Motley Fool | Mon, 17th August 2015 - 16:01

Premier Oil (LSE:PMO) is expected to return to profitability in the short to medium term, with asset write downs also presenting a considerable challenge to the business. However, further problems in this space seem to be more than sufficiently priced in, with Premier Oil having a price to book (P/B) ratio of just 0.44. This indicates that there is considerable support in the company's share price, as well as upside potential over the medium to long term.

Furthermore, Premier Oil trades on a forward price to earnings (P/E) ratio of just 9.8, which highlights just how cheap the company's shares have become. And, while further problems are set to lie ahead, with the company due to report a loss this year, it remains a very tempting stock to purchase.

Half-Yearly Results for the six months to 30 June 2015

Tony Durrant, Chief Executive, commented:
"First half operating cash flows increased year-on-year driven by reliable production, our hedging programme and operating cost savings of 30 per cent. With Solan on-stream later this year and Catcher in 2017, we expect both growing production and reduced debt levels. Amended financial covenants announced today provide balance sheet flexibility and demonstrate the on-going support of our capital providers. With the optionality in our portfolio, we are well placed for growth in a stronger oil price environment."

Operational highlights
· Production averaged 60.4 kboepd (2014 H1: 64.9 kboepd), despite recent disposals of non-core assets; full year guidance is maintained at 55 kboepd
· Increased momentum across sanctioned developments; Solan first oil is still targeted for Q4 2015 and Catcher first oil on track for 2017
· Progressing Vette and Sea Lion for 2016 investment decisions; ongoing engagement with the supply chain indicates significant potential for reduced costs
· Discoveries at Zebedee and Isobel Deep, Falkland Islands and incremental resource added at Anoa Deep, Indonesia; ongoing programmes in Norway, Falklands
· New venture focus on building portfolio in Ceará Basin, Brazil and Sureste Basin, Mexico
· Formal sales process for Pakistan assets initiated

Financial highlights
· Strong operating cash flow of US$513.0 million (2014 H1: US$499.4 million)
· Profit before tax and impairments of US$170.6 million (2014 H1: US$194.4 million); non-cash post-tax impairments of US$225.7 million result in loss after tax of US$375.2 million (2014 H1: profit after tax of US$172.7 million)
· Operating cost and gross G&A savings of 30 per cent and 20 per cent
· Amendments to Premier's debt covenants secured out to mid-2017
· c.60 per cent of 2015 H2 liquid volumes hedged at US$92/bbl; c.25 per cent of 2016 liquids hedged at US$69/bbl
· 2015 full year capex guidance unchanged at US$900 million (development) and US$240 million (exploration); US$500 million of total capex expected for 2016
· Net debt marginally lower at US$2,093 million; cash and undrawn facilities of US$1.5 billion

Hmmm! +6.1%.