.

Target of 152p with 101p risked by a 16.6% chance of success!! Brain of Britain that statement as 152p less 101p = 51p plus 16.6% of 101p = 67.76p unrisked which is the current share price... So currently Merchant Securities think the stocks trading without any premium!!

cynic you'l be jumping on the next momentum ride..

As will I

good morning poodle-boy ..... i dare say i shall, but there's a big difference between doing that - and getting out again with or without a profit - than falling in love with an ugly duckling hoping it will turn into a swan

Come...come Cinners....I know you're a big fan of this share......we should all be enjoying the rise pre-spud soon....come and join the faithful.....oy ye....altogether now with the Scotia hymn....you have not yet received Prosels latest indoctrination.......you just have to sign up to that...unmissable...makes the moonies look like amateurs....

don't the moonies stick their bare arses out of windows?

That was funny Cynic, post 2026 of 2031

i thought it wasn't a bad effort either, though marginally laboured

Ok ...jokers......(:))....now back to business....check out a minnow...ATC...Atlantic coal....seems to want to perk up...I've no idea what the price of coal..is at the moment but that company is doing well...check it out as the graph looks good...

I can tell you RF its 17 pound a bag for best.....thats the big stuff,if you want some come to the mine and just bag what you want for nowt.

Marky...are you in Scotland or Yorkshire....in a privately owned mine in a remote area ...?...by the way ...ATC is based in the USA...

Sunny Northumberland,near Hadrian Wall!!!!

That reminds me, I must buy some coal before the cold weather gets here otherwise I'll spend a small fortune on logs.

What's so bad about claystones anyway?

Rig is on the move to Scotia now.

FOGL estimated 60 days of well operations at Loligo - with the rig now on the move they managed it in 52 days - the P&A operation appears to have gone really well (6 days instead of 10).

Thats 8 days saved on the total allocated time - and 8 days time saving is a wonderful thing at over a million dollars a day.

Well done FOGL and the crew of the LE rig !

What a load of ................................

euhhh...dots ?........

It does look like there is more oil out there......who knows ?....same as the north sea...you keep on drilling and one day ; you can hit the jackpot......when they discovered Brent in the north sea, from what I gather the riggers thought the oil was coming from the rig itself until it dawned on them....it shows they did not expect a discovery...so....on to the next well and this is not too far away from Sealion as the crow flies.......(just loving this drilling campaign to bits).....

Scotia well.


As of this moment in time the rig has about 16 miles to go to get to the Scotia location.

Spud will therefore be this week for Scotia.

Scotia is

50 deg 23' 54.50" South
53 deg 37' 11.61" West

Water depth is 1762 meters (thats your mudline)
TD is estimated at 5198 meters.

Total drilling depth is therefore 3436 meters.

Based on Loligo progress they should be at TD and stopping drilling in around 45 days to 55 days range - total well operations should be in the 60 to 65 days range (which includes wireline work and P&A and rig on the move)

Scotia is targeting oil, believed to be around API 30 if found as per pre-drill prognosis (gas signatures have also been seen at this location so gas or gas/condensate is also possible).

.......The Mid Cretaceous Fan Play is well developed in the northern part of the FOGL acreage. This geological play was developed when the Falklands were still attached to the southern part of the African continent. A large amount of sediment, sourced from the continent and the Falklands Plateau area to the north, built up in near shore shallow seas. When a drop in sea level occurred, these sediments were deeply eroded and the reworked sands were shed far offshore into deep water. Several prospects have recently been mapped in this play in the northern licences. These are Hersillia, Scotia and Hero.

The Scotia prospect is located in quadrant 31 (PL027).Although the area had been mapped on seismic data before, it was only when the entire data set was reprocessed in 2008-09 that Scotia stood out as an attractive prospect.A distinctive sandy unit on laps the base of the old shelf. The formation dips to the south, which controls the spill point of the prospect, but it relies upon the pinchout of the sands in other directions to define the trap.

The prospect has a strong element of structural control and is supported by a conformable AVO anomaly. The primary target is in Albian age sands (about 100 million years old). The source rock for the oil sits just below this target and FOGL anticipates oil generation in the area. However, FOGL also recognises gas signatures on the seismic data and so either ‘phase’ is strictly possible. The Scotia well location sits in 1810 metres of water. The target is about 3,290 metres below the sea bed and the TD of the well is estimated to be at 3,440 metres below the sea bed. The Scotia well location lies approximately 330 kilometres east of Stanley...........


The Scotia well is targeting P50 recoverable barrels of just over 1 billion
(so thats over 3 billion barrels in place (for those that like OIP figures and not recoverable barrels), FOGL have 40% share and so net to FOGL on a P50 basis would be 400 million recoverable barrels (net to FOGL would be about the same size as Sea Lion in total for PMO/RKH)

The drilling program is running at approx 980K US$ per day (based on BOR Darwin costs of 96 million dollars for 98 days rig use) for everything needed.

Loligo cost would be 55 days @ 980K US$ per day of which 75% is the cost to FOGL, so Loligo will have cost FOGL circa 40.43m US$.

This saving in time/money should help push the leftover cash up from 212m US$ stated at Noble farm in to circa 220m US$ post Scotia (it no delays) or circa 43 pence per share.

The Scotia well is being paid for 60% by Noble, 25% by Edison and 15% by FOGL.

Estimated well operations time of 65 days and on the move would work out the net cost to FOGL for the Scotia well on a 15% contribution basis of about 9.6m US$.

Any time saving here will have minimal impact of cash going forward owing to FOGL only contributing 15% costs on this well for their 40% share of it.

Total drilling cost for the 2012 campaign should work out :

Loligo 40.43m US$
Scotia 9.6m US$
Mob/Demob 15m US$ (FOGL share)

Total cost for 2012 drilling campaign of circa 65m US$.


End of 2012 drilling campaign should be circa 220m US$ left over cash (circa 43p a share cash at 1.6 exchange rate)

According to Noble/FOGL the 2013 Seismic will cost net 65m US$ and FOGL share will be circa 30m US$. Admin costs circa 3m US$ in 2013.

So 220m less 30m for seismic less 3m for admin will leave FOGL entering 2014 with circa 187m US$ cash.

Well costs going forward will be circa (net to FOGL).

45m US$ per Loligo/Nimrod/Garrodia Tertiary well) (75% net FOGL).
28m US$ per well anywhere else (40% net FOGL).
With a circa 15m US$ mob/demob charge (or 7.5m if BOR also use the same rig)

FOGL could drill 3 Loligo drills in 2014, or 5 Mid-Cretaceous wells in 2014, which is why you see them say the plan is 3 to 4 wells - likely, imo, 1 Loligo appraisal in 2014 and 3 Mid-Cretaceous.

Once the 3D is done and all processed I would expect FOGL to farm down the Tertiary at Loligo/Nimrod/Garrodia in late 2013 to Noble as well to the same level (eg give up 35% and go down to 40% net to FOGL) and allow them to gain additional cash from past costs and a free carry on a lump of the next wells.

Such a move will give Noble incentive to farm in, and allow FOGL to be in a position to undertake say a 10 well drilling program (from late 2014) without the need for any fund raising.


I have some time this week I hope, to do a full write up on Loligo results, if not this week then next.

Good write-up Proselenes, as always.

What happened to the rig that Nobile was tendering for.........Something you posted a number of weeks ago......... Or have I misunderstood?