.

March 2012 for Kiliwani to be connected, at the rate up to 45 MMcf per day, but initially commencing at 14 MMcf per day from maybe April (after connection in March) it seems. The pipeline is 3.5km from Kiliwani to the Songas gas cleaning plant.

Sorry, you will need to translate from Swahili to read it :

http://www.parliament.go.tz/POLIS/PAMS/Docs/HS-5-9-2011.pdf


Taking these figures you get :

So 14 MMcfd x 2.7 US$ per Mcf for say 90 days in H1 = 14,000 x 2.7 = 37,800 US$/day x 90 = 3.4 million US$ for H1.

If they can get 45MMcfd per day in H2 then its :

45,000 x 2.7 x 180 days = 21.8 million US$ for H2 2012.

Total revenue from Kiliwani could therefore be over 25 million US$ in 2012, and do not forget that tax breaks are in effect whilst they claim back exploration costs.

Lets hope the March 2012 connection is kept and production is on from April.
.

So NAV at 14p a share (with 4p of that being Ntorya-1).

If Ntorya-1 fails NAV goes down to 10p a share.

If Ntorya-1 is good and gas NAV goes to circa 25p a share.

if Ntorya-1 is good and oil NAV goes to circa 50p a share.

US production is such that the company is cash flow positive excluding exploration.

With Kiliwani coming on line they will be cash flow positive and able to do some exploration work as well.


You can see why with all these snippets of info why the Asian investors were happy to pay 5p a share to buy a stake in AEX.

Ramp over...... :) Sorry, I mentioned downside of Ntorya-1 so its not a pure ramp then.......... ;) LOL

are these worth a gamble.

Yes, even if the latest drilling turns out to be a duster, it will not matter....as the sp is so low and in the event of a strike...and it could be gas not oil so anything could happen...a tripling of the sp is a possibility but that is probably too much to hope for....the good thing is that there is only temporary downside....and it is isable.

thanks i will look monday busy this weekend

RF

Nothing to stop the SP losing 30-50% on the next duster and therefore half of your investment. Just because the SP is already low doesn't mean it cannot go a lot lower. This is a trap many newbies get sucked into with penny shares, a belief the SP is already so crap it can't become any crapper and that a doubling from 1p to 2p is a mathematical exercise rather than a doubling of the market cap.
Apart from that any share being pumped by the board ramper carries a massive health warning!

I like them and have a small bet.

The gas they are pumping in the USA plus offshore Tanzania development should maintain the sp...but like you say : another duster on the Mozambique border would knock the shares a bit but only temporarily in my view...probably back to 3p....but no lower before returning to 4p later.....blinkin' gamble this, but I won't panick in the event of a hydrocarbon no show....

I am going to dip in for a punt .

http://www.davy.ie/LR?id=2655


Aminex

(AEX ID)
Tanzanian drilling update
10 January 2012
Job Langbroek
Closing Price: 5c Rating: Outperform 30/06/09

FACTS: Aminex has announced (January 10th) that following top hole casing programmes, the Ntorya-1 well in the Ruvuma Basin onshore Tanzania is now drilling ahead at 620 metres compared to a total well depth of 1,800-1,900 metres. Aminex has an operated 56.25% stake in the well. Its partners are Tullow Oil with 25% and Solo Oil with 18.75%.

ANALYSIS: The Ntorya-1 well is expected to reach its target depth at the end of January and is focussed on the same base Tertiary and upper Cretaceous sand package that the Likonde well encountered some 14 km to the north. The Likonde well established the presence of hydrocarbons in the Rovuma basin although it was not a commercial discovery. The current well is clearly important to the group given its significant equity stake, the scale of the target at 100m barrels and the pre-drill likelihood of success (20%).

DAVY VIEW: Our group valuation is 14p per share with Ntorya making up 4p of this. However, this is a risk-weighted valuation and in the event of success, the well would add over 20p per share.

Looking good this pm with a couple of 4.5p .

Decent bit of buying.

News could be next week, if not then the week after.

time to buy.

Drill results soon. Could be this week, more likely next week.

Duster means below 2p.

Gas should be over 10p

Oil could get up over 30p.


Good luck all, keep them fingers crossed.

A reminder of why Ntorya-1 was selected as the next drill target. From the Shore Cap note of late last year....



..........Likonde-1 targeted multiple reservoirs, including Tertiary and Cretaceous intervals, to a planned total vertical depth of 3,200m. This was primarily an oil prospect, with upside resource potential estimated at 153mmboe (million barrels of oil equivalent) and an estimated one in four chance of success.

Results from Likonde-1 were reported in April 2010 after a powerful gas influx halted drilling at an extended total depth of 3,650m. Results from drilling, logging and coring showed that the well had intersected two sandstone intervals with a combined thickness of over 820 feet (250m), and evidence of residual oil and gas. High gas readings were recorded through most of the well bore, with drill cuttings and sidewall cores providing evidence of crude oil.

Although Likonde-1 was not a flowing, commercial discovery, the hydrocarbon shows and potential net reservoir thickness provided lots of encouragement ahead of drilling of a second exploration well. Residual hydrocarbons demonstrate that there is a working petroleum system, although the oil appears to have migrated beyond the cap rock overlaying the reservoir. Anadarko‟s Ironclad well, drilled offshore in 2010, seems to support this theory, providing documented evidence of liquid hydrocarbons elsewhere in the basin.

The priority for the partners was therefore to find a structure with an effective trapping mechanism and, following evaluation of new data acquired during drilling of Likonde-1, Ntorya-1 was selected as the next drilling location. Ntorya-1 is scheduled for spudding in early December 2011, at an estimated cost of US$10-11m (100%). Drilling will fulfil the partners‟ work commitments for the current exploration phase, which will expire shortly.

Ntorya-1 will target the same high-quality Lower Tertiary reservoir sands encountered in the Likonde-1 well, and will be drilled about 14 kilometres south of that well‟s location, to a planned total depth of approximately 2,000m. The shallower depth means that Ntorya-1 will be cheaper to drill than the first exploration well. Mid-case recoverable resource potential of 100mmboe is estimated by the operator, with a 20% probability of success.

Aminex announced on 8th September 2011 that it had agreed to assume operatorship and increase its stake to 56.25% at Ruvuma, with Solo simultaneously announcing that it was to take its interest to 18.75%. Given Aminex‟s existing presence and operating capability in Tanzania, we think that this is a very logical outcome that should expedite the work programme, lead to operational efficiencies and reduce costs. Tullow retains a 25% stake.......

III rumour.

freakonomics
14:35
AEX Source in Dublin says they hit the black stuff!!!

Buys are building...........ummmmmm.

Wild rampy rumour from III ?

Or some truth in it.


Casing at the weekend, if they finished Saturday they could be entering the target zone now....... a little early imo, but then, we do not know where they are.

Its plausible they are into the target zone now.

If we get a 20% rise today it might force an update to come out tomorrow morning to clarify the reason (or not) for the rise ?

Let me drag up my valuations for oil and gas at Ntorya-1 (just in case this rumour has some legs).


VALUATION TIME FOR GAS AT NTORYA-1

P10 = 960 BCF of recoverable gas

Aminex Share is 56.25% = 540 BCF

Using a figure of 1p to AEX for each 24.5 BCF of gas in Tanzania.

540 / 24.5 = 22.04p

Ntorya-1 GAS strike at P10 level = 22.04p per share to Aminex.

-------------------------------

P50 = 600 BCF of recoverable gas

Aminex Share is 56.25% = 337.5 BCF

Using a figure of 1p to AEX for each 24.5 BCF of gas in Tanzania.

337.5 / 24.5 = 13.77p

Ntorya-1 GAS strike at P50 level = 13.77p per share to Aminex.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

VALUATION TIME FOR OIL AT NTORYA-1

P10 = 160 MMBO of recoverable oil

Aminex Share is 56.25% = 90 million barrels

90 million barrels valued at a lowly 6 US$ in the ground (low valuation to allow for dilution, should be higher as this is only 30km from a port where oil could be trucked in the first instance for quick sales).


90,000,000 x 6 = 540,000,000 US$ = 346,000,000 pounds.

Aminex shares in issue = 819,000,000


Ntorya-1 strike at P10 level valued at 6 US% a barrel in the ground = 42.24p per share to Aminex.

-------------------------------

P50 = 100 MMBO of recoverable oil

Aminex Share is 56.25% = 56.25 million barrels

56.25 million barrels valued at a lowly 6 US$ in the ground (low valuation to allow for dilution, should be higher as this is only 30km from a port where oil could be trucked in the first instance for quick sales).


56,250,000 x 6 = 337,500,000 US$ = 216,000,000 pounds.

Aminex shares in issue = 819,000,000


Ntorya-1 strike at P50 level valued at 6 US% a barrel in the ground = 26.37p per share to Aminex.

Strong strong day.