.

Doesn't make sense... why not analyse it quick or it is trying to deviate our attention to Scotia as it has bad news from its analysis...


FOGL said it had not been possible to determine if the gas had any liquid content and it has decided not to drill another well at Loligo until the current results have been analysed. Instead the well will be plugged and abandoned and the next drilling will take place on the Scotia prospect.

You've turned into a right Diva this morning Hlyeo98...look they did not have the right equipment to run the tests....this was an exploration well.....through 5 targets...it turns out all were gas bearing, with very strong shows...it is almost impossible to have all the testing equipment for oil and gas ready for an exploration well...that is why appraisal wells come later....

hyleo, again, after the Noble farm out it was agreed that Scotia would be the next well - so Scotia is the next well.

Loligo they will want 3D over it, thats going to take 6 months to 9 months to get and process, so Loligo full update will be 9 months away imo.

There she is in all her beauty - Scotia.

Class 2 AVO.



Class 2 AVO indicates moderately consolidated sands, porosity should be in the 15% to 25% range.

The Toroa well went through the mid-cretaceous sands and found very good sands, which greatly derisked the porosity and permeability aspects of the reservoir potential at Scotia.

Based on good quality proven mid-cretaceous sands, class 2 avo I would suggest the chance of striking reservoired hydrocarbons at Scotia is high, the reservoir sands risk is much lower than Loligo (owing to Toroa results) - it really, IMO only, boils down to what phase the hydrocarbons are - gas or gas/condensate or oil.

Fingers crossed its oil.

I thought the chance of sucess at Scotia was 16.6%....

Now now Shortie, you should realise proramper's geology knowledge, experience and exploration expertise far exceeds that of the real professionals. Cue the poodle for response!

The CoS is based upon.

Seal

Charge

Structure

Reservoir.


Loligo had seal, charge, reservoir and structure - therefore at the end its CoS was 100%.

People on here were quoting 10% CoS, some 20% - but in the end it was a 100% on all levels as it found reservoired hydrocarbons - good charge, good seal, good structure and with some optimal well placement after 3D, there will be good reservoir too, imo.

Most people have not got a clue how to work out CoS.

Toroa results........The prospect was a great big ruddy coal field no gas and no oil just coal and lots of it.

As for chances of hitting oil i think one broker said 16.5 % COS.....that is a broker saying that ..... i would like to think a little more but the chances are not high at all its a 1 in 5 but she is big if they are lucky.

So the share price will be 30p or £4+ at the end of the drill.

i don't need to work out CoS as industry norm (approx 5/1) is common knowledge ...... the norm will then vary up or down depending on a number of factors, not least of which is subjective view as of course is the interpretation of the word "success"

Proselenes - 13 Jan 2012 13:00 - 107 of 2065

FOGL CoS is not low.


Toroa was 3.8% CoS and it failed.

Loligo, back in 2006, pre CSEM, pre more seismic studies etc.. had a CoS of 11.5% as rated by TRACS (Nov 2006).

At the AGM recently the board said the CoS was now, after all the new work from 2006, at the 20% level for Loligo.

Scotia well, given the excellent sands at Toroa and the implications for Scotia deep well, is also around 20% CoS imo.

cynic, its quite easy really.

Seal / Charge / Reservoir / Structure

If all 4 were 100%

It would be 100 x 100 x 100 x 100 = 100,000,000

If as I suggest for Scotia is 60 Seal / 80 Charge / 80 Reservoir / 60 Structure

Then you get 60 x 80 x 80 x 60 = 23,000,000

So the CoS is therefore 23% (23,000,000 is 23% of 100,000,000).


Its all quite quite simple - nothing complex in it.

hyleo, yes, and Loligo ended up being 100%.

Scotia is around 20% CoS (I think 23%).

Some will quote low, some will quote high - the drill bit is around 50 days from letting you know for real - and then the CoS will mean nothing, only the actual drill results.

CoS means nothing if it finds more gas.

Based on the Tullow "TEN" field offshore Ghana I think it will be either oil, or a mix or oil and condensate.

Loligo is a condensate discovery - thats for sure imo - its just that until they drill a sweet spot and recover "liquids" its classed as a "gas discovery".

The moment they drill a sweet spot and get some liquids then its a "condensate discovery".

C5 is condensate, and Loligo had strong C1 to C5 readings. It it were dry gas you would get strong C1 and C2.

Condensate reservoirs have strong C1 to C5 - which Loligo had.

All they need to do is drill a sweet spot next time around and get some samples and Loligo will be reclassified as a "condensate discovery".

Until a liquid sample is recovered from a better located well, its classed as a "gas discovery" only.

But I will get into all this later when I do the Loligo results post.

throw all the pseudo-science gobbledegook at me that you like ...... in my UNSCIENTIFIC opinion, the odds of FOGL finding anything truly commercial remain no better than 5/1 ..... if there is a momentum trade to be had, then there's a good chance i'll hop in (and out!) ..... if i miss the boat and something commercial is indeed found, then there'll still be plenty of time and money to be made

So its not 16.6% but 23% then. Still doesn't really matter as I wouldn't call this a high rate for success.

If you however you think this is a really good rate and you can't lose then be a good chappy and remortgage your house so you can invest in FOGL...

Shortie, I am fully invested in FOGL, long all the way, thats clear from a long time ago when I was buying in the 40's and 50's.

Here for the whole hog, no selling, lets get that drill bit spinning and see what Scotia holds.

Proselenes...with all due respect : I thought you had sold out....then you must have bought back in heavily....

RF, I did not sell out.