anyone got any ideas about the block trades that went through today?

website: http://www.sterlingenergyplc.com/



weather: www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/084938.shtml?50wind120

For those who do not want to read all of this it says the avarage price for crude oil in 2005 is expected to be $41 a barrel right at the bottom.

Who is selling now?

Hands up!


CERA sees Q4 global oil supplies exceeding demand

DALLAS (AFX) -- Cambridge Energy Research Associates said Tuesday it sees
crude-oil prices falling further because the world's oil supply is expected to
exceed demand in the fourth quarter.
The outlook came as January crude futures pressed at one point toward $50 a
barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange due to supply concerns, before the
contract turned lower. .
CERA, a Cambridge, Mass.-based advisory and consulting firm specializing in
energy issues, noted that West Texas Intermediate crude has declined to $45 to
$48 a barrel in mid-November from a record intraday high of $55.50 set on Oct.
22.
CERA said it expects global oil supplies to run ahead of demand by about 400,000
barrels per day during the fourth quarter -- what it called "an unusual
situation for this time of year when stocks typically decline.
"This raises the possibility that oil prices could continue to fall through the
end of the year if the global supply chain avoids a significant dislocation,"
the firm said in its report.
CERA stressed that an atypically cold winter and potential disruptions in
exports from Iraq, Nigeria, and Russia could lift prices past $50 a barrel.
Saying it expects events to support price strength, CERA estimated that West
Texas Intermediate would average $47 a barrel in December.
Other factors cited by CERA include the state of U.S. crude inventories, as well
as distillate supplies after having declined for the last nine weeks.
In addition, the role of speculators in the New York Mercantile Exchange crude
futures market, prospects for a slowdown in world oil demand, and the
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' concern about the disparity in
prices between light sweet and heavy sour crude must all be taken into
consideration, CERA said.
"Output could start to slip in coming weeks because producers find it
increasingly difficult to sell their heavy, sour crude oil output despite very
high discounts to light, sweet price benchmarks," CERA wrote. "The wide
differential between light and heavy crudes weighs on the OPEC basket, which
fell to $35.94 on Nov. 16."
That price represents a $10 spread compared to West Texas Intermediate crude.
"CERA expects light-heavy crude oil differentials to remain wider than
historical averages in 2005," the firm said.
CERA also estimates that West Texas Intermediate would average $41 a barrel in
2005.
This story was supplied by CBSMarketWatch. For further information see
www.cbsmarketwatch.com.

This is exactly what I predicted last night as follows:

MMs will, imo, on relatively little selling (commissioned by companies that take on CFDs and Spreadbets), drop the bid until margin calls close out big long positions on CFDs and Spreadbets, so that (a) all parties still make a profit from the punter and (b) the CFD and Spreadbet companies avoid big future payouts that they had not hedged because they were not expecting the news

Most of those subscribing to the placing will not have done so for a few pennies profit - so the idea that there is a massive overhang at this price level is, imo, mistaken - it is more likely, since over half the applications for the placing could not be met, that those who were disappointed would commission MMs to drop the bid on the basis of they would buy whatever can be shaken out - so far the sheeple are obliging them

I would lay you a to a penny that today's sells are margin calls on long positions, some of which are quite chunky because margined bets are the only way most punters can work in those quantities - all of the trade sizes are too small to be institutions cashing up - when will punters ever listen?

Hi Hils, funny how we keep bumping into each other . . . ;-)

eurofox - thank you.

May I suggest to everyone that one peice that needs reading is that above from eurofox.

Derek,

I believe that last time we met, I was with my minder.

:o)

Cumulative volume over 9 million already.

Wow.

Hilary.

How is Dennis Waterman?

Morning all.

Morning team. Liked eurofox's comments (post 2063). Re-iterates what SWW and others has been saying all the time. Wonder what that big 9.4m trade was at 7:42 this morning. Hangover fron last night?

morning. no great ideas about that block this morning. maybe a punter looking for a penny or two and becoming impatient.

Hilary - thx for the comments today. just to clarify, i was making a basic point with regards to implied rights pricing ignoring any nav implications. it is a simple calculation but as we have seen in the recent Prudential example, rights issues and pricing can knock a price more than the implied "ex" price would indicate. In SEY's case this is a placement so it doesn't apply anyway!

up a quarter.

Ian (MoneyAm)

I am getting a pop up advert from Reuters when I navigate around the site. Is this your end or mine. It's getting annoying.

MS

Morning all, just!

mickeyskint,

This is a current ad campaign being run by us on behalf of Reuters.

Ian

You guys need something with an ad/pop-up blocker like Norton Personal Firewall.

Thanks Ian now I know. I had McAfee but bad interaction with Norton. When 2005 version is available I will up date.

MS

Well now.

Panic over it seems.

Buys keeping up with sells,just plus the myterious 9 mil+ X transaction today.

This may yet double bottom at around 16.5p, but imho I think stabalisation is the immediate future for these now.

Please bear in mind that I do all my trading according to detailed research into mystic things, superstition and the Stars.

My rabbits foot is being rubbed vigorously, (the rabbit looks very worried), I crossed a Gypsies palm with silver and have lucky heather in my grey underpants.

So, all in all great things are afoot.

The magic number today is 42.

I said, "42"

excellent call. 42p by 4.30. now where did i put my buy pad?????

HNR apparently have an AGM this week, (end of), and I note that HNR, ROC and PMO are all up again today.

Tiof 3 was side tracked having experinced mechanical problems, I did note that intersected a large column of oil while looking into my crystal ball.

This is known but not yet RNS'd.

I suspect that the future foretells of these events, on the turn of the 3 cups, which also shows great fortune to all believers.

Our cups will runneth over 3 fold, and four square.

Five times I have told you all now, six days ago I mentioned the seven wonders yet to behold.

An RNS shall arrive soon.

It is in my water.

If

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or, being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with triumph and disaster
And treat those two imposters just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with wornout tools;

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breath a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on";

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings - nor lose the common touch;
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run -
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man my son!

Rudyard Kipling

(Or a Woman of course!)