I suspect trading tomorrow will probably answer this conundrum, but I know there are some far wiser owls than me that contribute to this bb & I would be interested in their opinions.

My question is this: the chart below looks to me like a pullback of the uptrend (ie when it went north through 14.00) however I am unsure as it has now broken down through 14.00 whether this is trending up or down :-(

So what do you think - up or down, or should I just flip a coin :-)) ?

Wee punt ahead of trading statement tomorrow, Long (SB) @219.7 target 240.0 stop 209.7

StockMarketWire.com
"Hedge fund manager Man Group today reported profit before tax and adjusting items for the half-year to end-September were an estimated $215m (H2 2010: $268m).

Funds under Management (FUM) at end-September were an estimated $39.5bn, up from $38.5bn at end-June.

Man said the reduced net outflow in Q2 ($0.6bn) reflects a pick-up in sales driven by funding of institutional mandates and demand for onshore regulated products.

Positive investment movement in Q2 was $0.8bn, with AHL up 7.6% in the calendar year to end-August, while IP220 was up 17.5%.

A reduction in net management fees reflects lower average FUM

Diluted earnings per share on continuing operations before adjusting items of an estimated 9.5 cents per share; 7.0 cents per share after adjusting items.

Man said the financial position remains strong, with a regulatory capital surplus of over $1.5bn and over $2.5bn in cash. After closing the GLG acquisition, Man expects to retain a regulatory capital surplus of around $300m.

The acquisition of GLG expected to close shortly after the 12th October GLG stockholder meeting. "

Cut losses prior to jobs report, out @217.9 -1.8

Broker note from Oriel:
"The latest weekly NAV for AHL Diversified is +1.7%. AHL is up around 5% this FY
starting in April which brings it to approx 6% below its High Water Marks (having started at -11%).

AHL still needs to continue its improved performance but this is now raising the likely prospect of earning material performance fees for the next year FY12 to March.
This year (FY11 March) performance fees are still likely to be very low historically as expected by the market because of the poor recent performance of AHL. This in turn is linked by the company to the market distortions caused by massive Quantitative Easing. This remains to be proven but the trend looks better.

Valuation: on EPS for FY11 of 25c the PE is high at 12.5. We are reviewing our estimates for FY12 which will include GLG for the full year but the current consensus is 38c giving a PE of 9.3. The prospective yield is 6.5% on 22c dividend as promised."

Murphys Law Harry, if I hadn't have bottled it last thursday prior to US jobs report, would be sitting on a nice profit and touching distance of my target 240.0, shit happens! Have managed to scalp a few points and am long (SB) from 231.2 tight stop. Providing can breach 240.0 and Indices don't tank target 260.0. Interim 05/11.

Seems to be on the move today. Current market conditions likely to be favourable to funds like AHL.

Moved stop to 241.2 lock in a profit and risk free trade.

Part of the broker note from Oriel Secs:
" BNY Mellon, an asset manager and servicer, is a current market favourite to buy Man. It would be an add on, there would be scope to leverage Mans global distribution network, and it would give Man access to the US market where it is underrepresented.
It is also arguable that GLG makes Man more attractive in that it reduces the black box element.
We would not rule it out on that basis but still regard a bid as very speculative."

Moved stop to 251.2.

The current worry is that, if we go into another period of quantative easing, the AHL fund will suffer as it did the first time, so as QEII is a distinct possibility everyone is watching & waiting to see what will happen. In the event of no QEII, then the AHL fund & EMG should greatly benefit.

Moved stop to 255.2

Stop to target 260.0

"Man Group plc and GLG Partners, Inc. are pleased to announce that the recommended acquisition of GLG by Man has been completed today, to create a multi-style, performance-focused alternative asset manager with funds of around $63 billion under management. GLG is now a wholly owned subsidiary of Man."

Stopped out + 28.8

Rumours of an approach is driving this.

Shares Mag recommend a sell at 254p, but I don't agree. Happy to hold for the moment. AHL fund now doing well, plus acquisition complete. Divi date approaching with total yield of c11%.

I'm not so sure Harry, had two goes at 270 +, maybe third time lucky and could hit 280 before divi date. Then again could be running out of steam and may well get pulled down with Ftse, if it was Monday today and not Friday I might be tempted. Good Luck anyway. WTFDIK.

You never know Limit Buy @ 275.2 (SB) Tgt 295.0 Stop 268.2

StockMarketWire.com
Man Group upgraded to add from hold at Oriel.

Limit Buy (SB) 261 more in hope than expectation.