Epic : AEX

Aminex PLC is an established upstream oil and gas company, listed on the London and Irish Stock Exchanges, which has operated internationally since 1991.

Aminex produces oil and gas in the USA and has ongoing exploration activity in Tanzania, North Korea. Madagascar, Kenya and Egypt. Aminex also owns AMOSSCO Ltd, an international oilfield service, supply and logistics company.


Main Web Site : http://www.aminex-plc.com

Amossoco Web Site : http://www.amossco.com/

Dec 2007 Company Presentation : Link to PDF File



Sept 07 - Operations Detail & Update : In post 2

28th Sept 07 - Oil Barrel Write Up : In post 6

North Korea Info : In post 3

Planned Drilling :

Commencing late Oct 07 (or early Nov) - Kiliwani-1 - Tanzania
to be followed by second Tanzania well.

Commencing Nov 07 - West esh el Mellahah Block 2 - Egypt



* Note : AEX is fully listed (not AIM) and so can be ISA'd


.

hmmmmm I will not hold my breath, I still remember Indago, I think my first buys of AEX was around 25p :):):):)) Well, we shall see....

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/articledisplay.jsp?section=ShareTips&article_id=10058654&catEnforce=StockWatch

More than hope on show at Aminex

Edmond Jackson 30.10.09 08:42


The FTSE SmallCap shares in oil & gas explorer Aminex (AEX) merit fresh attention for breakthrough as a mainstream 'E&P'. I have followed Aminex on and off for about 15 years with its bull case changing form and yet the shares have not gone through the kind of transformation shown by the likes of Dana Petroleum (DNX), Premier Oil (PMO) and Tullow Oil (TLW), I have favoured, even as energy prices rose substantially from 2003.

Yet there can be an opportunity cost of lapsing into cynicism (there must be quite a few stale bulls here) towards a dynamic E&P as you never quite know which projects may surprise. Aminex has plenty, with news to watch for if you visit www.aminex-plc.com where there is a latest presentation dated 28 October to download.

This is not a 'blue sky' explorer; there is a balance of 'P' to help fund 'E' and limit downside risk. The business model is therefore attractive for an enterprising investor who wants to operate with discipline. But do not assume a share price of 8.75p is necessarily cheap, despite being low-priced. This relates to over 400 million shares in issue, so Aminex needs significant progress to impact per share values.

Interest is being regenerated firstly by Astaire, the company's broker, which has just recently upgraded its net asset value (NAV) estimate to 27p a share. This comprises 13p a share for the producing assets and 14p for exploration (which does not include West Songo-Songo in Tanzania, where evaluations are at an early stage, as well as Egypt).

Bear in mind, such modelling can give highly varied results according to the probability factor involved with 'risking' potential success with exploration, also NAV's can end up in a big range according to the discount rate applied to projected cash flows. The variations are very handy for share promoters to dangle enticing 'fair values'.

Secondly, Aminex has potentially useful exploration news in the near term.

Last Tuesday (27 October), Aminex announced that its Egyptian South Malak-1 well had encountered oil shows, and this is worth watching for the testing results. Aminex only has a 10% interest, however, so the find would need to be substantial.

Potentially of genuine 'high-impact' is drilling in the Ruvuma Basin of Tanzania where Aminex is in 50:50 partnership with Tullow Oil (the operator). As I have described in comment on Tullow, this team is currently as good as they get in exploration - 'making their own luck'.

Drilling became postponed and following a detailed review of seismic data a different prospect - Likonde - has been prioritised, seen as having more robust potential also with regard to oil rather than gas discovery. So watch for news.

Aminex also cites 'greatly increased potential revealed by 3D seismic' at its 100% working interest Shoats Creek gas field in Louisiana, where there is new drilling in the fourth quarter.

At Nyuni in Tanzania, the licence expires in mid 2011 hence there is attention on finding farm-in partners for drilling two wells on 'a new and encouraging play'. Although speculation surrounding North Korea has cooled, management is talking to a potential partner and a visit is planned for November - hence there is just a chance of news.

Besides current prospects in context of broader long-term value creation, the 'technical' situation of Aminex's chart is intriguing.

Over the last nine months, Aminex shares have lagged the recovery in crude oil prices that has re-rated similar companies. Might this be linked to a substantial shareholder base in Ireland, where the economy has been hard hit, so the fan club has lacked zeal?

It may also show how, in testing times, unless exploration prospects are dramatic and close to home (such as with AIM-listed Faroe Petroleum (FPM)) investors tend to prioritise companies with a proven earnings record. In fairness, Aminex's loss record has represented investment spending.

Otherwise, in recent years, the shares have tended to trade in a mid-20p range except for a blip over 40p in 2006 amid speculation over North Korea, and later on a plunge along with oil prices from July 2008.

In conclusion, the investment case rests on a useful spread of interests to impact reserves, for a 36 million company, despite being quite a hotchpotch that is typical of a smaller E&P. Meanwhile, Aminex's financial profile is improving anyway as growing revenue from the US side, also from an oilfield services business, is expected to cover central costs and profits are forecast in 2010.

The company is debt free and funded for its near-term drilling obligations. Over 10 million was raised last summer via a placing and open offer priced at 6p a share, boosting cash reserves for exploration and development. Otherwise the (US$-based) end-June balance sheet was looking a bit constrained with $4.7 million current assets offset similarly by liabilities despite $2.2 million cash.

Balance sheet net assets worked out at $41.9 million equating to 25.6 million or 6.2p per share - so at a circa 50% premium the market price is entertaining some hope value to balance sheet NAV, but not a lot in relation to overall potential. If the company broker's 13p a share valuation for the producing assets is credible then intrinsically there is a margin of safety at the current buying price near 9p.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200911160700115335C


Good news, and spudding within 2 months all being well. This well has the chance to really multibag Aminex on success BUT the present price is well covered by existing assets. Makes this a lower risk play, but with very good potential multibagging.

Roll on the spudding.

From the SOLO RNS which has more detail :

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=200911160700095311C

"Information on the Ruvuma PSA

The Ruvuma PSA covers approximately 12.000 sq Kilometres in the extreme south-east of Tanzania of which roughly 80% is onshore and 20% offshore. Within the PSA are two specific, adjoining licence areas, known as Lindi and Mtwara. The first well to be drilled under the Ruvuma PSA will be on the Likonde prospect, an anticlinal structure associated with a strike slip fault. As noted above, the Likonde-1 well is expected to be spudded in about two months and drilled to a depth of approximately 3,200 metres to test multiple targets throughout the Tertiary, Cretaceous, Jurassic and Permo-Trias Karoo intervals. Aminex have reported that "the Likonde prospect is thought to have the potential for up to 500 million barrels of oil in place."

Commenting, Solo Chairman David Lenigas said:

"This exciting farm-in opportunity with Aminex and Tullow is the first oil and gas deal undertaken by the Company since it changed its investment strategy in July of this year. Likonde -1 is the first hole being drilled in one of the last unexplored major onshore basins in Africa."

"The Company acknowledges this transaction has been successful due to the corporate broking team of Astaire Securities."

http://www.hoodlessbrennan.com/stock-research-prices/small-cap-flash/read/

Aminex (AEX, 8.8p, 36.7m).

The Aminex Q3 statement looks fairly neutral and does not add greatly to the interim announcement. The group is trading broadly in line with expectations. The US business is largely performing with continuing development of small reserves to capitalise on the recovery of oil price. The company is seeking partners to share the risk of deep exploration drilling at Shoats Creek (100% Aminex, so plenty of ability to farm down) where it believes there could be a significant resource. However we are waiting two major pieces of news flow. The first relates to the protracted talks on approval for the pipeline operator to expand its gas treatment plant which would enable it to accept Kiliwani North Tanzania gas (the discovery which tested at 40m cubic feet per day in 2008 (50% Aminex). Of course the second piece of newsflow relates to the Ruvuma well to be drilled in the next couple of months by Tullow (37.5% Aminex following farm down to Solo). Cashflow has been shored up by the recent boost from the Ruvuma farm out. SPECULATIVE BUY.

I would say- very important news would be from the other side of the border, if they will hit something it should be a good news for Aminex, would that kind of news affect our shares? Don't know but it seems to be that this 10p is a magic limit at the moment:):):):)

If the well in Mozambique strikes lucky it will effect Aminex shares, but is the geology the same over the fence...?....perhaps.... and how far away as the crow flies is that well ?...not sure....if it's anything more than 10 miles....could be a different structure.

Is that a good time to increase our holding or there is something out there we don't know yet....many sales on Friday...

How can you increase holding on something you don't know ? LOL

Roll on the late January spud......500 million barrels potential.


http://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/business/-/2560/814322/-/4gsmqwz/-/

British oil firm lands lucrative deal in Tanzania’s virgin basin
By MIKE MANDE (email the author)
Posted Monday, November 30 2009 at 00:00

In Summary

12.5: Percentage of pre-drilling costs amounting to $1.25 million, that Solo Oil will reimburse Aminex

18.75: Percentage of the drilling cost of Likonde-1, amounting to $3.4 million, that Solo Oil will pay Aminex

12,000: Estimated area, in square kilometres, that the Ruvuma PSA, in which Likonde-1 is, covers, of which 80 per cent is onshore

500: Projected oil production capacity of Likonde well, in millions of barrels


\
British firm Solo Oil will spend $10.7 million to fund a buyout agreed upon with Aminex for a 12.5 per cent interest in the Likonde-1 well in Southern Tanzania.

The transaction will see Tullow Oil owning 50 per cent of Likonde-1, Aminex 37.5 per cent and Solo Oil 12.5 per cent.

Likonde-1 is the first well scheduled to be drilled under the Ruvuma Production Sharing Agreement in southeastern Tanzania, with spudding likely in about two months.

Subject to approval

Under the terms of the farm-out agreement, Solo Oil will reimburse Aminex for 12.5 per cent of pre-drilling costs amounting to $1.25 million and pay 18.75 per cent of the drilling cost of Likonde-1 ($3.4 million).

David Lenigas, chairman of Solo Oil, said the farm-out agreement is subject to formal approval from the Government of Tanzania and the passing of the relevant resolutions at the company’s general meeting.

“If Solo exercises this right it will also become a full party to the Ruvuma joint operating agreement,” Mr Lenigas said.

According to Mr Lenigas, participation in the agreement will cost Solo Oil an estimated $4.5 million.

The balance, which is expected to exceed $3 million, is expected to be used to strengthen the company’s balance sheet and for general working capital.

Exciting opportunity

“This exciting farm-in opportunity with Aminex and Tullow is the first oil and gas deal undertaken by the [Solo Oil] company since it changed its investment strategy in July this year. Likonde-1 is the first well being drilled in one of the last unexplored major onshore basins in Africa,” said Mr Lenigas.

The Ruvuma PSA covers approximately 12,000 square kilometres, of which 80 per cent is onshore. Within the PSA are two specific, adjoining licence areas, Lindi and Mtwara.

The Likonde prospect, an anticlinal structure associated with a strike slip fault, is thought to have the potential of producing 500 million barrels of oil.

Hi Proselenes. Whats your theory ? I'm just a part timer so I would appreciate your explanation :):):)
I assume it has something to do with last movements...

Thanks

Presently the market is going through the normal year end selling, as people take profits and money off of the table ahead of the holiday period.

For AEX, well, things will liven up in January for sure, I would expect AEX to be over 10p to buy end of Jan and higher than that come end Feb.

Shoats news is due, as is news on seismic, and of course, the big drill spud due late Jan.

Around 7th of Jan it is for spudding then.


RNS Number : 1052E
Solo Oil Plc
15 December 2009

COMPLETION OF FARM-IN WITH AMINEX PLC IN TANZANIA

Solo Oil Plc ("Solo") announces that the conditions for completion of its farm-in with Aminex PLC("Aminex") for a 12.5% interest in the Likonde-1 well on Aminex's Ruvuma Basin PSA in southern Tanzania have now been met and the farm-in is therefore formally confirmed.

Likonde-1, in which the partners are Tullow Oil PLC (50% - operator), Aminex (37.5%) and Solo (12.5%) is likely to be spudded on or around 7 January 2010. A further announcement will be made when spudding has actually occurred.


Information on the Ruvuma PSA

The Ruvuma PSA covers approximately 12.000 sq Kilometres in the extreme south-east of Tanzania of which roughly 80% is onshore and 20% offshore. Within the PSA are two specific, adjoining licence areas, known as Lindi and Mtwara. The first well to be drilled under the Ruvuma PSA will be on the Likonde prospect, an anticlinal structure associated with a strike slip fault. The Likonde-1 well is targeted to be drilled to a depth of approximately 3,200 metres to test multiple targets throughout the Tertiary, Cretaceous, Jurassic and Permo-Trias Karoo intervals. Aminex have reported that "the Likonde prospect is thought to have the potential for up to 500 million barrels of oil in place."

Using the Macquarie figures below, based on TLW with 804m shares and 50% and then AEX with 413m shares and 37.5%, it makes the unrisked upside figure for Aminex on this well at 68.3p a share.

Not bad upside from circa 8p a share is it, especially when at the present price the other assets are worth more than 8p excluding this big African well potential.


"Macquarie :

Aminex (AEX LN) has completed the farm-out of 12.5% WI in the Likonde-1 Well, Ruvuma Basin PSA, Southern Tanzania to Solo Oil (SOLO LN) (Source: Company press release). AEX retains 37.5% WI with Tullow Oil (TLW LN,1290p, O, TP 1400p, Brendan Warn) having the remaining 50% WI. The well is expected to spud in early January. We carry a 125mmboe prospect at 4.4p risked at 10% CoS, 46.8p unrisked for TLW."

Interesting. RAK becoming involved with some projects might be of interest and benefit to AEX (particularly Natural Gas projects and developments).


http://www.ameinfo.com/219804.html

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3.3 million buy at 9p.

Looks like the overhang is getting taken up now, should do, lots of news due soon and spudding of the big well on top of the other news.

Buy orders building up, I think someone is going to clear out this overhang now, which means we could be on for a test of 10p.

finally :):)

Out of interest on line limits suggest strong demand is there.


Max Buy = 50K at 9.5p

Max Sell = 375K at 9.18p



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