http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/Companies/ByEvent/Risk/Analysis/article/20100908/cf021134-bb2e-11df-81fc-00144f2af8e8/Back-to-the-Falklands.jsp
Back to the Falklands
Created:8 September 2010Written by:Martin Li
When John Hogan last drilled in the Falklands in 1998, an oil price that had crashed to $12 per barrel forced LASMO, of which he was chief operating officer, and its peers to abandon any meaningful aspirations there. They drilled the cheapest wells that satisfied their lease obligations and withdrew, despite finding a thick, rich source rock (where hydrocarbons form) and oil and gas in five of the six wells drilled. That leaves unfinished business that Mr Hogan intends to complete as managing director of Argos Resources, which became the fifth Aim-traded Falklands explorer when it floated in July, raising 22m.
First movers are generally thought to hold the advantage, but this time Mr Hogan and Argos chairman Ian Thomson espouse the benefits of coming to the Falklands party late. Argos holds a 100 per cent interest in acreage in the North Falkland basin, adjacent to licences held by Rockhopper Exploration and Desire Petroleum. Rockhopper's spectacular 242m-barrel success with its Sea Lion well provides valuable geological clues to help Argos evaluate its licence area, particularly in identifying Sea Lion lookalikes. Rockhopper and Desire will drill further exploration wells to the south and west of Argos's acreage, which should further help the company target its prospects.
Oil and gas discoveries are easier to commercialise when clustered together so as to be able to share infrastructure and facilities. The Sea Lion discovery and Rockhopper's re-interpretation of a 1998 Shell well, Johnson, also as a discovery holding several trillion cubic feet of gas (even though not commercial on its own) greatly reduce the threshold for any further discoveries to be commercial.
Another key advantage of Argos's timing may be rig availability. The inability to secure a rig to travel the long distance to the South Atlantic delayed Falklands drilling by several years until Desire finally secured the Ocean Guardian rig last September. Further exploration and testing of Sea Lion could keep the rig busy in the Falklands until mid-2011, by which time Argos hopes to be nearly ready to drill.
IC VIEW:
GoodValueAs Mr Hogan points out, "oil fields are herd animals", and Rockhopper's success in an adjacent block bodes well for Argos. Its prospects would improve significantly if successful seismic studies attract a suitable partner and allow it to tag onto the end of the current drilling campaign. Good value at 31p.