Watkin Jones (LON:WJG, 129.50p) – Speculative Buy
The leading UK developer and constructor of multi occupancy property assets, with a focus on the student accommodation sector, yesterday announced its maiden annual results for the year ended 30 September 2016. The Board reported a successful trading in line with its expectations. Strong revenue growth and record operating profit, before exceptional IPO costs, were driven by student accommodation developments. Robust cash performance, with a net inflow (from operating activities but before exceptional IPO costs) of £41.7 million (2015: £28.4 million). Year-end net cash of £32.2 million (2015: £39.1 million) came after exceptional IPO cash costs of £26.6 million, £14.5 million cash cost of acquiring Fresh Student Living ('Fresh') and £10.0 million dividend to existing shareholders prior to IPO. Watkin Jones development pipeline remains strong, with 9,469 student beds across 27 sites, with 15 forward sold and seven more forward sales in legal negotiation. Of these, 2017 deliveries alone already include nine student developments (2,860 beds) sold and one operational asset (590 beds) with the remaining 454 beds in legal negotiations. Having paid an interim dividend of 1.33 pence per share in June, the Board has recommended a final dividend of 2.67 pence per share, giving a total dividend of 4.0 pence per share. With Admission having taken place towards the end of the first half of the financial year, this total dividend represents two thirds of the full year equivalent, giving an initial yield of 6% based on the placing price of £1 per ordinary share. This is in line with management's stated intention at the time of the IPO. The dividend will be paid on 28 February 2017 to shareholders on the register at close of business on 27 January 2017. The shares will go ex-dividend on 26 January 2017.
Our view: An excellent business model delivering strong maiden results. Confidence is underscored by an exceptional pipeline while delivering gross margins for the year on student accommodation developments of 20.5%, compared to 18.2% for FY 2015. This improvement reflects both the move to sole development of own projects and away from lower margin contracting work for other developers. The Group's 'forward sale' model means that FY 2017 will also benefit from progress on schemes delivering in later years, including the eleven that look to complete in FY 2018, of which ten have planning consents while planning has been submitted on the remaining one. Some of its larger 2019 schemes will also contribute to FY 2017 performance, in particular the 511-bed scheme in Stratford for the University of London, which in terms of its development value is Watkin Jones' largest ever project. Investment interest in this asset class remains strong while offering good medium-term visibility. Growth in the student accommodation management business 'Fresh' also continues, with 44 schemes under management and 61 already contracted for 2020. While there appears no need for Beaufort to adjust its current forecasts for either 2017E or 2018E, the shares still appear to be undervalued on the basis of earnings multiples of 9.3x and 8.6x for the two years, a dividend yield of 5% along with exceptional FCF yield of 13.3%. At this time, Beaufort does not take some media suggestions that the decision to leave the EU could result in international students deserting the UK in coming years, but recognises this concern will need to be dispelled before its price target of 190p/share for Watkin Jones can be achieved.