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from IC
“When we announce details (of our acquisitions and fundraising) short sellers will be in for a surprise and it will not be a pleasant one” says Costis Papadimitrakopoulos, chief executive of Aim-traded Greek mobile software provider Globo (GBO: 42.75p).
Indeed, short sellers who have driven down Globo’s share price in the fortnight since the company issued a bullish first half trading update, and which prompted the company to issue a statement last week, would be well advised to take note especially if they are basing their investment view on the contents of two defamatory articles concerning the company circulating the internet since mid-July. In fact, having interviewed Mr Papadimitrakopoulos at length yesterday, it’s time to put the record straight.
Firstly, Globo’s boss points out that 90 per cent of all the cash on the company’s balance sheet, a sum equating to €82.8m at the end of December 2014, is deposited with “investment grade banks” and all of this money is fully accessible with no tax restrictions on transfers whatsoever. This is contrary to what the shorters would have you believe. In fact, the company only has €100,000 of its cash balance deposited with Greek banks, a point I made when I last published an article on the company (‘Primed for major re-ratings’, 22 July 2015).
Secondly, there are sound reasons why the company has opted to raise a high yield bond to finance its acquisition strategy. For starters, Globo’s current bank facilities with Barclays and East West United Bank have 10 different covenants which it must comply with. These are quite restrictive if it’s going to significantly scale up the business by making some sizeable acquisitions.
The company has a “good relationship” with these lenders, but the facilities of €65m are due to expire in October 2016 and between now and then Globo will be making capital repayments. In fact, it has already made two such payments in the past few months. True, an interest rate of Euribor plus 3.5 per cent is attractive on these current bank facilities, but by raising in excess of US$150m (£97m) through a five-year high yield bond, as Globo is trying to do right now, and with no maintenance covenants, the company is actually mitigating risk for its shareholders. That’s because any new facility with Barclays and East West United Bank would still have restrictive covenants which would be “dangerous for shareholders” if Globo pursues a substantial acquisition strategy.
Although the market will ultimately decide on the pricing of the bond issue Mr Papadimitrakopoulos says the coupon rate will be “more than 8 per cent, maybe 9.5 per cent or even 10.1 per cent”. That’s a reflection of the current state of the high yield bond market, rather than Globo which has recently been given a credit rating of f BB- from rating agency S&P and B2 from Moody's.
The point being that a ‘covenant lite’ bond issue priced around the upper end of that coupon rate would still be accretive for shareholders on a cash profit basis given the potential synergy benefits from acquisitions. Just as important, the company will not be diluting their interests by issuing shares to fund acquisitions.
Moreover, the company’s cost of equity is far higher that the likely coupon rate on the bond, and interest payments are tax deductable against operating profits. It’s also worth noting that the plan is to refinance the acquisitions within two to three years through lower cost bank facilities and possibly an equity issue once the operational and financial benefits have materialised, so the bond funding is certainly not long-term. Also, once the acquisition strategy has proved itself, then shareholders in Globo will also see the benefit from the lower cost credit lines as more of the company’s profits will be captured by them rather than the bondholders.
On the M&A trail
What has not been made clear to equity shareholders, and something that the short sellers have taken advantage of, is that half the proceeds of the bond issue will be used for “acquisitions within six months, and the balance within 15 months.” The targets being looked at are located in the US, Western Europe and Australia and importantly all offer “the technology, geographic reach and people to multiply our sales into new channels”.
Mr Papadimitrakopoulos is looking at paying a multiple of 10 times cash profits for acquisitions (and that’s before factoring in synergy benefits) and expects additional sales from tapping into these new channels to reap a further 20 per cent upside in cash profits. It’s also worth pointing out that by adopting this particular approach, rather than taking on the execution risk of building up an operation from scratch in new territories, Globo can accelerate the ramp up in its business and avoid incurring start-up losses in the first few years. That mitigates risk.
Clearly, the company’s free cashflow of €10m (£7m) in the past 12 months is not enough to fund an acquisition spree on the scale Globo is looking at even if the company uses a large proportion of its aforementioned cash deposits to pay the consideration. True, it currently has net funds of €47.4m, up from €40.4m at the end of December 2014, a sum equivalent to almost 9p a share, but even after factoring in cash on deposit then it still needs external funding to scale up the business quickly.
And that’s important because if Globo’s board want to fulfil their ambition of becoming a leading pure-play operator in the enterprise mobility management (EMM) and Mobile Application Development Platform (MADP) business segments, offering businesses solutions to expand their engagement with employees and customers through the mobile channel via a secure and extensible environment that runs on all smart devices, then strategically it needs to act now. “Tech is a fast market and you need to execute fast. You either win it or lose it” says Mr Papadimitrakopoulos. He’s in no mood to lose it.
Short covering and newsflow to spark substantial re-rating
It’s my strong view that if Globo pulls off its high yield bond issue, and I understand that some serious fixed income investors are considering the fundraise right now, and reveals details of its first strategic acquisitions to its shareholders, then short sellers will be scrambling to cover their positions. We shouldn’t have long to wait because we can expect news on this front “within weeks”.
Indeed, the share price could be in for a very sharp re-rating because investors have ignored a bullish first half trading update that confirmed that the company is bang on track to lift EPS from 6.7p to at least 8.7p in 2015. This means Globo’s shares are being priced on a cash adjusted prospective PE ratio of 4,a valuation that fails to recognise its growing international bias and intention to make complimentary acquisitions. Bears of the stock are playing a very dangerous game.
Trading on a bid-offer spread of 42.5p to 42.75p, I continue to rate Globo’s shares a buy and have a 69p target price, having initiated coverage six months ago with a conditional buy recommendation at 47p a share ('Going global', 2 February 2015).