http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

.

Todays news, Spudding os S-6.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112200700132888U



An interesting read.

Ray Zondetra on iii:

I rarely post on the GKP BB, but as a board director of a leading London PR agency (and owning a decent stake in GKP), this story is just so easy to read:

1. This story came from GKP IMO. Look at the detail in the story and examine the recent significant behavioural change including rushing out an RNS on a drill where they are not even the operator.

2. Classic end of story line in the Indie on Sunday - GKP "declined to comment". How many times have I needed to get a story out but insisted on this end line! Usually a condition of any leak!

3. Look at the GKP statement as stated by Hub. Having written numerous holding statements in my time for various clients for national newspapers, it's all about the EXACT wording. Ignore the eegits who claim this is a comprehensive denial, they're talking total rubbish. They have left so many options open of what could be happening you could drive a horse and cart through. When you issue a denial statement you always need to leave a way out if needed... staying two steps ahead.

4. The "baseless" claim given to the Dow news wire is a classic back covering exercise from an unnamed source at GKP. Always good to to demonstrate to your partners that you're working with them and not solely for your own interests. No wonder they remained nameless...

5. I am not surprised the RNS arrived late in the day. With clearance and approval time, including commentary from a potential army of lawyers and PR's in both Iraq and the US. The benefit of the RNS arriving late suited GKP, as newswires across the world, including - crucially - the US picked up the story BEFORE the late RNS. A 7am RNS would have prevented global pick up of the story.

6. Mark Leftly - used to cover the media patch on the IoS. Not had many dealings with him but he is well respected in the industry and a good journo.

Far more confident after today's fun and games!

GLA

.

From todays news,Gulf Keystone is pleased to announce that the Shaikan-6 appraisal well has spudded on the Shaikan block in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq on 16th December 2011.
SO WHY NOT YESTERDAY???

And if this correct,more fireworks to come?

iii
Independent article

golfguy31

4

Mark Leftly has apparently been passed further info re' the possible offer (on Twitter). You can be sure that he doesn't want to be made to look a fool by the BoD's.....It wouldn't suprise me if he realised a second article adding weight to the first.

The BoD will be put in an even tighter position.

Mark Leftly was also the man who wrote a detailed artcile on Todd's divorce affairs earlier in the year.....he has VERY good contacts with regard to GKP....you can be sure of that

From todays Times.



Tim Webb
December 20 2011 12:01AM
Shares in Gulf Keystone Petroleum ricocheted almost from one extreme to another yesterday after rumours emerged that the explorer was in takeover talks with ExxonMobil.
After the AIM-listed, Iraq-focused group denied that it was in £7 billion bid talks with the oil major, its shares, which had risen by 36 per cent in early trading, slipped much of the way back. They closed nearly 8 per cent higher at 178¼p. Exxon declined to comment.
However, Gulf Keystone held out the prospect of a future disposal when it added that “it remains committed to creating value for shareholders, via the continuing 2011-12 exploration and appraisal programme on its world-class assets in the Kurdistan region of Iraq”.
Gulf Keystone has been the subject of several takeover rumours in recent months, having made one of the world’s largest discoveries, the Shaikan field in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of Iraq. The field is estimated to contain about 10.5 billion barrels.
ExxonMobil flagged its interest in Kurdish Iraq in October when it became the first oil major to sign an exploration contract with the Kurdistan Regional Government. The contract covers acreage next door to the Shaikan discovery.
The news reignited the row between the KRG and the Iraqi Government. The two have been wrangling for five years over a new Iraqi oil law that will set out how the country’s huge oil wealth will be shared. Baghdad has warned that any contract signed with the KRG before a law is agreed is illegal. The threat of being blacklisted further south in the country has deterred oil companies wanting to operate there from entering the Kurdish region.

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Make of this what you want,actually topped up again on the drop.I believe Bekhme-1 is big and it won't be long to find out?

this was on 3eye at 12:46(Millymog):

Under way, board meeting 10 days ago.... Specifics that would bang you in court if you couldn't back it up..

Wake up folks, we are being sold out and gkp can stop with the " all the attention we need" and not in talks to sell gkp,
Todd has hid under laxed aim rules for long enough, look how many well respected posters came out " the cats out of the bag" don't be the last to find out as usual, this time the little guys gonna get paid because we have what the biggest want, a slice of the future.

Le Mog

http://www.aknews.com/en/aknews/8/279426/

.

Yes a quarter million purchase near end of day and a couple of delayed sells.i believe?
Another 17m+ trades today,no letting up.I think pi's don't accept the denials,so it could be a frantic time for GHP?

Algeria approves Gulf Keystone's exit from BG-led gas project


London (Platts)--20Dec2011/935 am EST/1435 GMT




Algeria's council of ministers has approved the exit of the UK's Gulf Keystone Petroleum from the Hassi Ba Hamou gas project in central Algeria, allowing the UK's BG Group and state-owned Sonatrach to increase their stakes in the project.

In February 2010, an agreement was reached between Gulf Keystone and BG for the transfer of Gulf Keystone's 38.25% interest in the Hassi Ba Hamou permit to its partners.

But the agreement was delayed as it awaited approval from Sonatrach and the Algerian government.

According to a statement from the council of ministers, BG now holds 65% in the Hassi Ba Hamou project, up from 36.75%.

Sonatrach, which held a 25% stake, now has 35%, the council said. "Gulf Keystone no longer has a stake in the Hassi Ba Hamou project," it said.

Last month, Algeria's oil minister Youcef Yousfi slammed a report that BG was considering leaving the North African country because of the delay over the Hassi Ba Hamou project.

A report in the Algerian online daily Tout sur l'Algerie said BG was preparing to leave Algeria in December this year having failed to reach agreement with Sonatrach on terms of the development of Hassi Ba Hamou.

In June 2008, BG together with Sonatrach and Gulf Keystone made a gas discovery at Hassi Ba Hamou, and said they would discuss how to move to phase 2 of the project.

Gulf Keystone subsequently said it wanted to leave the project to focus on its giant oil finds in the northern Iraqi region of Kurdistan.

--Lies Sahar, newsdesk@platts.com

Similar stories appear in International Gas Report. See
http://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/NaturalGas/8718092

Can i say that GRH's contribution to BB's is immense and he has the greatest respect
drom fellow posters..


GRH1 View Profile Add to favourites Ignore



Date posted

today 15:28



Subject

was 'unmeasure-able' an understatement?



Votes for this Posting

Voted 35 times.



Message




All

Longer term holders may recall a fairly impromptu ...but very senior level ...ceremony at the SH1 well site...
it was upon the first discovery of oil
and it has been all but lost in the sea of noise that sometimes dominates this board

That is a pity...

as, at that ceremony... it was suggested that the oil was 'unmeasure-able'...

perhaps some newer holders might even be unaware of that statement

I hope to show you WHAT 'unmeasurable' actually looks like


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


My apologies for the slightly lengthy post...
especially as I said that I would post no more ...on Wifely orders pre Christmas

But...I have permission for JUST this final one ...

For those who are not interested in the 'PRE-AMBLE'...

and who could blame you?

may I suggest that you skip straight to the 'MEAT' section

I have thought long and hard about putting a pre-amble in here at all...
but... were I to merely put out the second part of this post,
there would be more questions than there might be with this longer version...

The following represents my personal opinion only...

so here goes

PRE -AMBLE

In all of the post below, I bow to the MUCH greater knowledge of several posters here...
some of whom have held very senior and successful positions within the oil industry...

I recognise that,as a non scientist and as a mere businessman and investor,
what I know about this industry can be written on the head of a pin or two

but I speak as I find etc....

As some here will know, I have been investing in oil shares since very late in 2008...
and in volume since 2009...
and, like many here, I have had my winners and a few losers...

I hold GKP...

somewhat later in this post you are going to see WHY

Now....leaving aside GKP as a rather special case ...
I regard the E&P sector per se as a very tough place for investors to make real money...
(yes, of course GKP is tough also...but for rather different reasons)

and IMO that is greatly due to the 'success' rates on drilling wildcats on seismic alone...

My research indicates that about 1 in 12 wildcats become commercial successes...
some people like to quote 1 in 5 or so...
but I do not believe that to be correct
as it appears to reflect the re-categorisation of poor drilling results

This poor rate of success leads DIRECTLY to many companies in this sector issuing a seemingly endless number of new shares...
thus diluting the existing equity holders....often at lower and lower prices...
we have all seen many instances of that effect...
to my simple mind...dilution appears as a drug within this sector

a couple of years ago, I coined the phrase....'issuing shares like confetti'

the phenomenon was more recently described to me by a very senior Nomad... as the 'waterfall' effect

When I came into this sector, I did much research...
and soon developed a view that there must be better ways of finding hydrocarbons...than seismic ALONE

Please understand that I am not knocking seismic...I am a great fan of it...but used for the correct purpose

I postulated a theory to another poster that the US had probably developed ...or at least used... oil mapping from aircraft...

Through countless meetings and contacts, I eventually met with long term and very senior oil exploration people
(one such was a GM in BP's International & Frontiers E&P Division and country Vice Pesident Exploration of various BP operations)
who had,many years before, developed ...jointly with a group of Russian scientists ...just the technology I was postulating...
albeit utilising satellite rather than aircraft-gathered images
(vast numbers of such images need to be interrogated for the all important evidence of live hydrocarbons to emerge...
such evaluation is a truly mammoth task)

The technology works by examining physical changes at surface level...
changes in the manner in which vegetation performs when subjected to the constant barrage of chemical 'soup' emanating from the upward migration of hydrocarbons
(MICRO seepage...NOT please to be confused with seeps that are visible to the naked eye)...
and the effects upon the cementation of rocks where no such vegetation exists

(I am told by a senior geologist that such phenomenon is well recognised within the minerals mining sector)

They had achieved startling techical success
and, whilst they had achieved wealth for themselves...
that degree of wealth IMO did not correctly reflect the sheer immensity of what they have

I put that down to two main factors...

Resistance from the extant E&P community ...the closed shop approach...
ie resistance to change,bearing in mind that seismic was around at the time when many senior oil executives were learning their trade...
(imagine the initial conversation were seimic to be invented today...'shall we bang the ground and see what we can infer')
and a business model that revolved around a pure 'service ' approach

So...a colleague and I ...he is well known over at the other place....
having considered MANY business models,entered into an International alliance with them...
whereby we would change the business approach...and the nature and scale of the revenue stream

For almost a year (it is not a fast process for reasons I have partly outlined above)
we have been signing up E&P companies to our model...(I dislike the term ' E&P' as, surely, what is of great interest to investors is 'D' for Discovery)
which essentially reduces the up-front costs for the client companies and we believe greatly improves their chances of drilling success...
whilst enabling us to enjoy financial success ...via participatory rights...in various exploration activities

As far as I am concerned, it represents the creation of a 'virtual' oil company

We never ...or at least very rarely... suggest that drilling take place without relevant seismic...
but the key word is 'relevant'
ie it is surely sensible to throw better quality seismic...over much reduced areas of GREAT interest...
rather that using it as a primary oil finding technique

Of course...many here know that seismic cannot positively identify the PRESENCE of hydrocarbons....per se...
but rather the types and forms of the sub surface structures that MIGHT contain hydrocarbons

I consider that such point goes to the heart of the CoS issue

The satellite-enabled technology I describe provides a totally DIRECT indication of hydrocarbons...
thus very different to traditional techniques

The marketing has taken much time...and continues...
and it is early days and these drills also take time...
not least of which is time expended in the licencing arrangements...

but we are hoping to see some 'live firing' drilling in 2012 on several locations...
'live firing' meaning that... in the success case... we make money out of each such success via the business model (not as investors)

It has been entirely up to the client or partner companies to decide if they wish to actually go public
with the fact that they have signed satellite contracts...
and my view overall is that they might be advised to keep quiet about it for OBVIOUS commercial reasons...
one Company though has made such information public...

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Obviously ...in addition to our BUSINESS activities as noted above
we have also been using such technology to better inform our own INVESTMENT decisions

yes...HOW I wish that I had met these guys back in 2008

and I have personally witnessed quite startling successes...
to the extent that,whilst the Company and its scientists will claim a somewhat lower CoS ...
I can tell you that , in respect of the most recent 25 predictions/analyses, over 85% have been correct
it has been a good run

Of course,,,we have audit trails of things such as telling quoted companies in advance that their drill would be a duster
(among others...a high profile drill in Kurdistan ignored our data...hugely to the cost of the shareholders in that company)...
and analysing an un-related duster that cost me (it was before I met the satellite guys!) a large amount of money

as recently as the Mayfair Hotel presentation by GKP I showed a satellite oil map of Shaikan to a person from GKP..
and I told him that, in our opinion, SH4 would be EXTREMELY good...
he emailed me some while later ...AFTER the first RNS about the preliminary results from that drill....
to ask me HOW I had been so confident as to give him an ADVANCE prediction re SH4 that was SO accurate....


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MEAT

OK...so what...you ask?

Well, we have persuaded the scientists to allow us to post in public...for the first time...
satellite OIL images of Shaikan and part of Ber Bahr....

I am also posting a purely topographical MAP of three of the blocks...
obtained from a space shuttle programme
but with the block boundaries super-imposed for your ease of reference

Please understand that the OIL images are NOT in any way to be compared with the interpretation maps you see in various presentations...
IE they are not the product of a chap with a pencil or two

but massively important 'live' images...


There need to be a few conditions please ...but only a few...

As to Ber Bahr... it will be 'only' the south eastern block on the BB licenced acreage...showing the drill location for BB1

in the view of the scientists,that BB drill appears to be located sub optimally
(it is not dissimilar perhaps in relative placement to SH1 really within the Shaikan structure ...and look what happened there)
BUT...the scientists told me that they feel that BB1 should contain oil reservoirs...
although the technology cannot predict porosity/permeability depths of the accumulations...

and frankly ...if BB1 comes good ...
then one needs to look carefully at the rest of that southern structural map to see the upside there ...

it appears QUITE GOOD

and that EXCLUDES all the rest of the BB acreage and structures...

please bear in mind that for obvious reasons of commerciality,

I AM ONLY POSTING VERY LOW GRADE/SMALL SCALE/HIGH LEVEL IMAGES...

as the very detailed stuff still has great commercial value to me and my colleagues

but I can tell you that black is thought to be 'good'...
and we do see rather a lot of deep black here

I must also say that I am not able to answer questions ...
partly as I simply do not have time to engage in MUCH debate...
and partly for reasons of commercial sensitivity...I hope that you will understand

It is possible that my colleague in this venture will be prepared to talk with people...within commercial confines/on a limited basis...
probably over at the other place

However...I do very much hope that some here might appreciate the images..
and the work that has gone into them...it has been considerable

I am 'full' on GKP stock...

now you know why...

and, hence, I now have no issue with letting others here...who might be interested...
see ...at least low resolution versions of... what sits on my office wall...

I post these without charge...
in the hope that they might help put some of the thousands of excellent posts into a clear visual context...


AND/OR OF COURSE WITHOUT WARRANTY, IMPLIED OR OTHERWISE ...

in choosing to view such images, you automatically accept such conditions...
if you are not prepared to accept such conditions ...please do NOT view the images

How much oil do we own?

of course, I do not KNOW the answer
but I can tell you that the GKP images that I possess are, in their scale AND intensity,
quite unlike others I have relating to several other oilfields of other companies

So...let's just say that, purely personally, I regard BBBS's numbers as being rather conservative...

sorry BBBS...I hope you don't mind

Here are the images

Ber Bahr...
http://db.tt/nrmRjZ5D

GKP ...three blocks
http://db.tt/eWQgeDlQ

Shaikan Image...
http://db.tt/HCjVh1c2



PLEASE do your own research , use your own judgement
and ignore as much 'noise' as possible...

Good luck as ever to all holders

I really am now signing off for Christmas

Regards

GRH1

http://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=21783165&from=141507#firstpost

And from another well informed poster.

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AGKP.L&it=le&action=detail&id=9091015

Mirabaud Broker note/comment on GKP SH-6 spud today."

"As we have previously stated, while we do expect the company to be an attractive take-over prospect, we think it is unlikely that a meaningful bid will materialise until after the Iraq Oil Law has passed, since such event would significantly de-risk the asset."

http://thesharehub.com/?p=4889

Seems we have coverage in both the Telegraph and the Sun?

on that basis, no t/o for another 12+ months, but meanwhile, i note that 180 was the previous closing all-time high (hit twice), and sp has now breached that with some ease .... and that's still not a reason to buy ..... however, the fact that this iraqi oilfield of GKP's is clearly pretty humungous means that the company's asset base is based on fact, and that should equally reflect in sp, which i'ld guess is not presently the case

Price to go upto 250.00...

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=336_1324313655

.