ARM price seems to be going through a three month flattish period after a 1 year or so steady rise. Any views on what might happen next?

Take your pick :-

Kepler Cheuvreux Buy 1,075.00 - 1,200.00 Reiterates

Liberum Capital Sell 1,075.00 700.00 700.00 Reiterates

Beaufort Securities Buy 1,075.00 - - Retains

Citigroup Buy 1,075.00 1,200.00 1,200.00 Reiterates

Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy 1,075.00 1,500.00 1,500.00 Reiterates

JP Morgan Cazenove Neutral 1,075.00 750.00 900.00 Reiterates

Deutsche Bank Hold 1,075.00 900.00 1,080.00 Retains

1st Quarter Results

Q1 2015 Financial Summary
· Group revenues in US$ up 14% year-on-year (GBP revenues up 22%)
· Processor royalty revenue in US$ up 31% year-on-year (Underlying1 revenue up 26% year-on-year)
· Processor licensing revenue in US$ down 2% year-on-year
· Normalised PBT and EPS up 24% and 27% year-on-year respectively

Progress on key growth drivers in Q1 2015
· Growth in adoption of ARM® processor technology
o 30 processor licences signed for a broad range of applications from sensors to smartphones to servers
· Maintained momentum in licensing of advanced technology, underpinning future royalty revenue growth:
o 4 ARMv8-A processor licences signed, and an additional architecture licence for smart mobile devices
o 4 Mali™ multimedia processor licences signed, including another licence for Mali video technology
o 2 POP IP licences signed, including one for a Cortex-A53 processor implementation on a 28nm process
· Growth in shipments of chips based on ARM technology
o 3.8 billion ARM-based chips shipped up 31% year-on-year
o Strong year-on-year growth in shipments of microcontrollers and chips for mobile devices
o First physical IP royalty revenues from a leading edge FinFET manufacturing process

Outlook
ARM has made an encouraging start to 2015 with more leading companies choosing to deploy ARM technology in their products. Assuming that the macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive of consumer spending, we expect group dollar revenues for the full-year 2015 to be at least in line with current market expectations.

Relevant industry data for Q1 2015, being the shipment period for ARM's Q2 royalties, points to a sequential decrease in industry-wide revenues, broadly consistent with normal seasonality. In this context we expect group dollar revenues for the second quarter to be in line with current market expectations.

Morgan Stanley note today:
"Past the iPhone 6 upgrade cycle, we like the long duration of the revenue and earnings growth, in a context of slow global growth. Not all new ARM initiatives will move the needle but every 1% of extra revenue growth adds 80p to the DCF. We upgrade to OW.

Concerns around a slowdown of the smartphone market have created a buying opportunity for ARM. The stock is hardly up year to date, at the bottom of its 5 year PE trading range. ARM should report high royalty revenues (expected to reach 36% in 2Q15, a 2 year CAGR of 20%). Indeed, from such a high base, the royalty growth can be expected to decline from here as the positive impact from the strong iPhone upgrade cycle and v8 upgrade cycle fades out. But in this note we argue that even though growth is more like 15% for royalties, and 10% for the overall top line, the duration of the growth is longer than the market believes (or even tries to model), making ARM a good example of a compounding stock in tech and outside of tech.

Pricing of smartphone chips is stabilizing. As we pointed out in the past, ASP assumptions were too high thanks to our statistical pricing model, we believe that the upgrade cycle for 4G smartphones is helping chip prices stabilize. Combined with higher v8 royalty rate, consensus forecasts are now within reach while they had been too bullish for a couple of years.

We are not particularly bullish on new ARM markets. In our view, autos, servers, networking, and IoT are not comparable to smartphone growth. But adding 1% of top-line growth to our current forecasts add 80p to share price, due to the high operating leverage and compounding effect. Should ARM execute on raising royalty rates with newer versions of v8 in the FY18-20, that would add 220p to the share price through the power of compounding (1400p bull case). Growth potential is also coming from China with government initiatives driving demand (see p. 9). Where could we be wrong: In our view, potential risks lie in Intel gaining share, decrease in consumer appetite for smartphones or that ARM fails to raise royalty rates further.

Our PT increases from 980p to 1180p as we move to OW: ARM’s investment case is shifting, from peaks and troughs driven by product cycles, to more consistent, steady growth for the next decade. Our PT increases as we introduce slightly less deflation on chips for mobile based on our statistical model and slightly lower WACC (now 9.3% similar to ASML vs 10% before)."

YUM!

gla

i've got a few of these in my sipp
it tends to be a bit lumpy, but it's an excellent company and not a bad pick (i think) as a core holding

yep - i was in arm when comfortably below a squid - has done very well and has / should have more growing revenues for years to come - my main interest today was the bounce though :-)
good one for sipp but do take care imo emerging techs coming all the time

one could say the same about google and apple and microsoft
of course, it's also not beyond the realms of possibility that someone will want to take out ARM at some point

ARM
ARM sees no slowdown in take – up of newer designs in smartphones

Cfo says continues to expect licensing revenues to grow 5-10 percent a year over medium term
Cfo sees no reason why take-up of armv8 technology in smartphones will slow

===========

seems to be some selling on the news so perhaps now a reasonable entry point for this first class company

below is the answer to the sell-off, though my entry point earlier at 894.5 is currently good

BUZZ-ARM: hits 6 month low as underlying Q4 results miss
10 Feb 2016 - 09:03

* ARM falls 5.6 pct despite reporting a top-line Q4 revenue beat, with brokers citing a one-off payment inflating the figure
* Q4 revenues up 14 pct to $407.9 mln [nASN0000CK]
* UBS and Liberum both point to a $9 mln royalty catch-up payment inflating Q4 revenues - both see as a 2 pct miss rather than 2/3 pct beat on expectations
* Move wrong foots traders with the majority of brokers calling the stock up in pre-market
* Stock trading at its lowest level since August 2015
* Fourth top faller on Stoxx 600 < .STOXX> in decent volume (55 pct 30-day average traded in first hour on Wednesday)
* Co says its expects FY $ revenues to be in line with analysts' expectations, but UBS and Liberum both see consensus estimates falling

Interesting that ARM are happy to diversify into the auto industry where they see huge growth potential, taking up any slack in the waning smart phone market. Terrific company, imo.

exactly so ...... i hold in my sipp albeit at a thumping loss at the moment, and per above, also have a trading position which is looking very tasty at the moment

StockMarketWire.com
ARM Holdings posts normalised pre-tax profits of GBP137.5m for the first quarter to the end of March - 14% up on last time.

Pre-tax profits under IFRS rose by 8% to GBP112.0m.

Group revenues in US dollars increased by 14% to $398.0m and in sterling were up 22% at GBP276.4m.

Normalised operating expenses were £132.9 million in Q1 2016 compared to £123.9 million in Q4 2015 and £100.0 million in Q1 2015. Approximately £27m of the year-on-year increase in normalised operating expenses was due to ongoing investments in R&D and supporting business infrastructure, which included a 20% year-on-year increase in the headcount of the Group and an annual pay-rise. The remaining £6m is due to the impact of weaker sterling.

The change to effective exchange rates increased normalised operating expenses by £4m as a result of the translation of non-sterling costs into sterling; and a further £2 million relates to the revaluation of monetary items. Since over 95% of ARM's revenues are dollar denominated, the impact on operating expenses from a weaker sterling is more than offset by the increase in sterling revenue.

Possibly a safe haven with much of it's revenue coming in $ and order book US and Asia facing.

Reuters - Japan's SoftBank Group Corp (9984.T) has agreed to buy British chip designer ARM Holdings (ARM.L) for 24.3 billion pounds ($32 billion), in a deal that will retain the company's management and grow its workforce.

Arm, Britain's preeminent technology company, said the two boards had reached agreement on the terms of the deal, with SoftBank paying 1,700 pence in cash for each ARM share, representing a premium of around 43 percent.

Shareholders will also receive a dividend.

SoftBank said it intended to preserve the ARM organisation, including its headquarters in Cambridge in central England, its existing senior management team, brand and partnership-based business model.

It also pledged to at least double ARM's employee headcount in the UK and increase its headcount outside of the country over the next five years.

my sipp is very happy :-)

Another British Company about to disappear.

I think the offer is subject to UK regulator approval, so not yet a done deal.
Softbank also own Sprint in the US, so possible conflict of interest?

Isn't it a great shame that those with money to invest only do so "Short-term" -or- speculatively as in Equities...?
Wouldn't it be nice to feel the Country backed good businesses . . . and that in time we ( our Pensions) would benefit from this progress?
-Not a bit of it _
We've sold off LSE ( Yikes!) and are about to sell ARM . . . despite previous models showing that foreign Buyers don't always keep their promises . . . . Cadbury

We should have a Minister for "Keeping what's Good" - and allow the Public ( Like Crowd-funding) to invest in these UK-enterprises. - shares appears to be the prime route, but over time that has been destroyed by Institutions that (Must-)have only their short-term interests at heart.

A new way of investing MUST remove the City and its greed, so there is a direct link between the Public and their money . . . . new ideas needed...

UK has sold too much and left nothing but the housing market. Next sector to be targeted.

Conversely foreign investment has kept some of our industries alive, which would have gone to the wall otherwise.......car.......aviation......nuclear power.......steel (open to debate).......all matters relating to sport and sport industry (also open to debate!)......I'm sure there are many others. And you could argue that UK incorporated has a good many fingers in pies overseas.......I think it's called globalisation....for better or worse!