http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

on that basis, no t/o for another 12+ months, but meanwhile, i note that 180 was the previous closing all-time high (hit twice), and sp has now breached that with some ease .... and that's still not a reason to buy ..... however, the fact that this iraqi oilfield of GKP's is clearly pretty humungous means that the company's asset base is based on fact, and that should equally reflect in sp, which i'ld guess is not presently the case

Price to go upto 250.00...

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=336_1324313655

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Manreh if you click on the chain link above the box,you'll have direct access to the article,etc.Ref post 2138.

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http://www.rudaw.net/english/interview/4247.html

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/37194/genel-confirms-talks-over-chia-surkh-acquisition-in-kurdistan-37194.html


.Its acreage includes the Ber Bahr field, where Genel is the operator and has a 40% stake along with Gulf Keystone (LON:GKP) with the Kurdistan Regional Government owning the remaining 20%.

Ber Bahr is being tipped to hold even more oil than Gulf’s Shaikan field, which is estimated to contain 8 billion barrels of crude on a P90 basis.

http://www.tacticalreport.com/view_news/Iraq:_ExxonMobil_Chevron_may_reactivate_contacts_with_KRG_592/2378

One piece of news that didn't post,several days ago a poster reported that the Exxon staff were being moved out of South Iraq and put his reputation on it.Well it seems that they have all moved to Dubai?

i may be able to find out if similar applies to Schlumberger who provide a lot of the oilfield downhole services

That would be great,the more info the netter, as the advert goes,"every little helps"?
I'm thinking of topping up on what i see as a dip,but am a bit overweight so hesitant?
It might be worthwhile keeping an eye on trading at GENL,who operator at
Ber Bahir,the number of daily trades is small,so any clues might be easier to spot?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/22/us-iraq-violence-idUSTRE7BL0AN20111222

From my post 1960,alas can't see them working together and i read that the Sunni's are moving this way,might be better for all if like Bosnia etc go there own way?

http://www.algemeiner.com/2011/11/18/the-kurdish-question/

"Last week, the Saudi-owned newspaper Asharq al-Awsat published a column saying that it might come as a shock for some readers, but it is now inevitable that the Kurds of northern Iraq, who now have their own Kurdistan Regional Government, will declare their independence."

http://www.tnr.com/article/world/98838/kurdistan-iraq-autonomy

Events at the minute are worrying,however i take some comfort from this hardened investor.


Don't think you need to worry too much about aggression towards K

My GKP buddy tells me that K is enclosed in a ring of steel e.g any vehicle crossing today into K is directed to a large run off area, approached slowly and given the once over by a competent security op
All drilling ops have military strong points nearby etc

Now that US has withdrawn from Iraq, it will be civil war and more unrest. Very unstable for GKP. Sell.

I have already sold hyleo, did so yesterday at 199p.

Its the holiday period now, time for people to take cash out of the markets and put it back in on 2nd January.

The boring Xmas period for trading is now upon us.

Apparently some bloke on iii got confirmation from MOL that they are planning to update on bekhme before year end........

"Dear x x x

The company is still planning to give an update on before year end.

Best regards,
Ádám Horváth "

superb post by Miny from 3i

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AGKP.L&it=le&action=detail&id=9098095

I thought I would attempt to give a generalised point of view to the situation in Iraq as it stands aware things could change rapidly at any time. It is a rather long post but some of the relatively new shareholders might appreciate such a viewpoint as being helpful without ramping or running down the prospects of GKP. I will state from the outset that I have all my money invested all in this one share.

The situation in Iraq is now precarious to say the least. The recent bombings are a timely reminder to all concerned that there are deep divisions within the country. The coalition government has never looked so vulnerable and a total collapse of the government is a real possibility.

Those comments above are not just my opinion they are FACTUAL!!!

Had such events taken place three months ago the sp might well have dropped sharply to the dreaded £1.00 mark. Meanwhile we all wait for the hoped for news of a takeover or at least a sharp boost to the sp into the 300p arena where we can all ponder between ourselves what the final takeover price will be, comfortable that we are all already sitting on some decent profits.

Others are dreading another poor XMAS present with the sp.

Thank you once again to Dalesmann for your wonderful insight and for helping to keep all of us in a positive frame of mind. Also to others who are doing their best to try to reason with shareholders that we risk being sold far too cheaply. Fight indeed for your company.

The BIR saga continues and on that point I feel that if the KRG have not already dispensed with those BIR for Shaikan then I doubt very much they will be forced to do so by the end of the year. The KRG can agree with the companies concerned to adjust the contractual terms to extend this deadline and I seriously doubt anyone would object.

So where does all this turmoil lead us to and what are the implications for us in regard to GKPs prospects?

Without a takeover by a large major with billions of Dollars to mount a takeover and still have plenty in reserve for their Capex costs it would be a long haul indeed for us shareholders to get value from our investment.

So what affect will this latest implosion of bombs and the political accusations have on our prospects? How crucial NOW is the O&GL to everyone concerned? Is the oil law essential to a takeover? Can we extract some positives from this unrest?

This is my take on the subject: I am not surprised at all with the bombings once the Americans withdrew their troops. My friend who was working with a support crew in Basra had left six monts ago to safer climates (another Arab country) saying that the bombings will return immediately the troops have left. Well he was right on that score I just hope he is not right on the rest of what he says! Sometimes you can be too close to events to be able to stand back and look at the bigger picture.

Maliki has taken a huge gamble pointing the finger at Tariq al-Hashimi, Iraq's Sunni vice president, claiming that he organised a death squad targeting government and military officials, Hashimi for his part has stated they are false claims and politically motivated and he has never and will never be involved in violence. What strikes me is the timing of the accusations by Maliki. There were already fears that as soon as the troops left there would be an example of how active certain factions can be by organised multiple bombings in Baghdad.

The ordinary people have spoken out and they are pointing the finger clearly on the politicians!
The Sunnis and the shi.....s are now as far apart as ever! The Kurds are in the middle but with Tariq al-Hashimi seeking refuge in Kurdistan the situation is a mixed blessing.

The Tribal leaders in the South (Basra) are unhappy with Maliki and Shahristani for doing the deal with Shell and excluding them from any part of that deal. We still don’t have an oil law and everyone appears to be arguing rather than reasoning.

What is the likely outcome? What state of play is the fourth round of oil and gas licensing now in?

If all this was not bad enough the Economic woes in Europe places an even bigger risk on our investments within the stock market.

Taking all of the above into account it might look like a god’s blessing to be offered £8.00 by anyone for all of GKP. But are there positives to be taken out of the events above that could lead to a much improved offer in the £12.00 - £15.00 range.

Maliki has risked everything on this move in my opinion and Shahristani’s silence proves to me their policies and strategies are more closely aligned than ever, they are together on this but hedging their bets (if one falls the other hopes to survive). Maliki is hoping to unite the rest of the Shi...s behind him irrespective if the government falls or not!

Exxon have read the situation well with their removal of staff suggesting it is unsafe to do business in this part of the world. This by and large sends a powerful signal to other oil companies to tread wearily and think clearly BEFORE even considering investing in this part of Iraq.

In short Exxon have now made it far more difficult for Maliki to even attempt to get the fourth round of licensing under way in March until the violence is under control AND the O&GL is passed and ratified.

Meanwhile the KRG are rarely ever slow to take full advantage of a situation. By taking and accepting refuge of Tariq al-Hashimi the Kurds are currying favour with the Sunnis whilst playing the peacemaker between the two factions. Should elections take place it is unlikely to be a negative for the Kurds in the long run.

Meanwhile the KRG MUST now have a large major in place to deal with their oil and get things moving once their strategy is rock solid without likely change. There are now fundamental reasons for the KRG to insist that the pipelines now go straight to Turkey and NOT be connected to the existing pipeline, since the existing pipeline is now at risk of attack. Thus another important vital piece of the Kurd’s jigsaw will now fall into place.

The KRG have already met with Turkey and Turkey are deperate for a gas pipeline to go through Kurdisatn into Turkey. I posted my thoughts before on that score and in my opinion the ICG and the KRG BOTH need Turkey to paly ball and play ball they will with BOTH of them.

Exxon will wait until the year end and review their strategy. If there is little sign of the oil law being put to parliament or any mention of further delay and the game plan for Exxon changes? They can then move in for a full takeover of GKP without the O&GL and the KRG will welcome them with open arms.

Chevron and others might either join the bid process or mount a joint bid. I have no doubt at all that the bid from either Exxon or Chevron or Exxon/Chevron joint bid will be for a mixture of cash or and shares etc with loan notes being provided. This they will ensure they will also carry a decent portion of the private investors who can avoid large CGT bills.

I happen to think that Exxon have thrown their ball in the ring with their £8.00 un-official (lol) offer just to see the response. The ball has been firmly rejected. They will know only too well that Todd will come out fighting until he has a price that he feels is as good as he could achieve given the political circumstances.

Once Exxon get word that Ber Behar could be full of oil they will adjust their bid upwards accordingly. There is absolutely no way that the BOD of GKP will allow a ridiculously cheap deal be passed irrespective of the KRGs need to have a major onboard. The longer GKP remain independent the more oil GKP will have proved up and the better price paid at takeover.

We are worrying too much and not putting sufficient trust in Todd telling everyone that he believes Ber Behar to be full of oil along with Shaikan and SA with Bekhme about to be known shortly. He will not reamin silent and the KRG will allow the bid fisht to contuinue up to a point.

it is all going to pan out reasonably well for us shareholders all things considered. My bet is we will see £12.00 bid being eventually tabled and Exxon or Exxon/Chevron will be getting the deal of the century. Our true value will probably turn out to be at least £20.00 but that’s life.

The time for fighting will be when we hear of the first tentaive offer officasilly from GKP.

By then I hope to see everyone on this board singing from the same hymm book and screaming for a sum one hell of a lot larger than £8.00

All IMHO Miny