http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

i may be able to find out if similar applies to Schlumberger who provide a lot of the oilfield downhole services

That would be great,the more info the netter, as the advert goes,"every little helps"?
I'm thinking of topping up on what i see as a dip,but am a bit overweight so hesitant?
It might be worthwhile keeping an eye on trading at GENL,who operator at
Ber Bahir,the number of daily trades is small,so any clues might be easier to spot?

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/12/22/us-iraq-violence-idUSTRE7BL0AN20111222

From my post 1960,alas can't see them working together and i read that the Sunni's are moving this way,might be better for all if like Bosnia etc go there own way?

http://www.algemeiner.com/2011/11/18/the-kurdish-question/

"Last week, the Saudi-owned newspaper Asharq al-Awsat published a column saying that it might come as a shock for some readers, but it is now inevitable that the Kurds of northern Iraq, who now have their own Kurdistan Regional Government, will declare their independence."

http://www.tnr.com/article/world/98838/kurdistan-iraq-autonomy

Events at the minute are worrying,however i take some comfort from this hardened investor.


Don't think you need to worry too much about aggression towards K

My GKP buddy tells me that K is enclosed in a ring of steel e.g any vehicle crossing today into K is directed to a large run off area, approached slowly and given the once over by a competent security op
All drilling ops have military strong points nearby etc

Now that US has withdrawn from Iraq, it will be civil war and more unrest. Very unstable for GKP. Sell.

I have already sold hyleo, did so yesterday at 199p.

Its the holiday period now, time for people to take cash out of the markets and put it back in on 2nd January.

The boring Xmas period for trading is now upon us.

Apparently some bloke on iii got confirmation from MOL that they are planning to update on bekhme before year end........

"Dear x x x

The company is still planning to give an update on before year end.

Best regards,
Ádám Horváth "

superb post by Miny from 3i

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AGKP.L&it=le&action=detail&id=9098095

I thought I would attempt to give a generalised point of view to the situation in Iraq as it stands aware things could change rapidly at any time. It is a rather long post but some of the relatively new shareholders might appreciate such a viewpoint as being helpful without ramping or running down the prospects of GKP. I will state from the outset that I have all my money invested all in this one share.

The situation in Iraq is now precarious to say the least. The recent bombings are a timely reminder to all concerned that there are deep divisions within the country. The coalition government has never looked so vulnerable and a total collapse of the government is a real possibility.

Those comments above are not just my opinion they are FACTUAL!!!

Had such events taken place three months ago the sp might well have dropped sharply to the dreaded £1.00 mark. Meanwhile we all wait for the hoped for news of a takeover or at least a sharp boost to the sp into the 300p arena where we can all ponder between ourselves what the final takeover price will be, comfortable that we are all already sitting on some decent profits.

Others are dreading another poor XMAS present with the sp.

Thank you once again to Dalesmann for your wonderful insight and for helping to keep all of us in a positive frame of mind. Also to others who are doing their best to try to reason with shareholders that we risk being sold far too cheaply. Fight indeed for your company.

The BIR saga continues and on that point I feel that if the KRG have not already dispensed with those BIR for Shaikan then I doubt very much they will be forced to do so by the end of the year. The KRG can agree with the companies concerned to adjust the contractual terms to extend this deadline and I seriously doubt anyone would object.

So where does all this turmoil lead us to and what are the implications for us in regard to GKPs prospects?

Without a takeover by a large major with billions of Dollars to mount a takeover and still have plenty in reserve for their Capex costs it would be a long haul indeed for us shareholders to get value from our investment.

So what affect will this latest implosion of bombs and the political accusations have on our prospects? How crucial NOW is the O&GL to everyone concerned? Is the oil law essential to a takeover? Can we extract some positives from this unrest?

This is my take on the subject: I am not surprised at all with the bombings once the Americans withdrew their troops. My friend who was working with a support crew in Basra had left six monts ago to safer climates (another Arab country) saying that the bombings will return immediately the troops have left. Well he was right on that score I just hope he is not right on the rest of what he says! Sometimes you can be too close to events to be able to stand back and look at the bigger picture.

Maliki has taken a huge gamble pointing the finger at Tariq al-Hashimi, Iraq's Sunni vice president, claiming that he organised a death squad targeting government and military officials, Hashimi for his part has stated they are false claims and politically motivated and he has never and will never be involved in violence. What strikes me is the timing of the accusations by Maliki. There were already fears that as soon as the troops left there would be an example of how active certain factions can be by organised multiple bombings in Baghdad.

The ordinary people have spoken out and they are pointing the finger clearly on the politicians!
The Sunnis and the shi.....s are now as far apart as ever! The Kurds are in the middle but with Tariq al-Hashimi seeking refuge in Kurdistan the situation is a mixed blessing.

The Tribal leaders in the South (Basra) are unhappy with Maliki and Shahristani for doing the deal with Shell and excluding them from any part of that deal. We still don’t have an oil law and everyone appears to be arguing rather than reasoning.

What is the likely outcome? What state of play is the fourth round of oil and gas licensing now in?

If all this was not bad enough the Economic woes in Europe places an even bigger risk on our investments within the stock market.

Taking all of the above into account it might look like a god’s blessing to be offered £8.00 by anyone for all of GKP. But are there positives to be taken out of the events above that could lead to a much improved offer in the £12.00 - £15.00 range.

Maliki has risked everything on this move in my opinion and Shahristani’s silence proves to me their policies and strategies are more closely aligned than ever, they are together on this but hedging their bets (if one falls the other hopes to survive). Maliki is hoping to unite the rest of the Shi...s behind him irrespective if the government falls or not!

Exxon have read the situation well with their removal of staff suggesting it is unsafe to do business in this part of the world. This by and large sends a powerful signal to other oil companies to tread wearily and think clearly BEFORE even considering investing in this part of Iraq.

In short Exxon have now made it far more difficult for Maliki to even attempt to get the fourth round of licensing under way in March until the violence is under control AND the O&GL is passed and ratified.

Meanwhile the KRG are rarely ever slow to take full advantage of a situation. By taking and accepting refuge of Tariq al-Hashimi the Kurds are currying favour with the Sunnis whilst playing the peacemaker between the two factions. Should elections take place it is unlikely to be a negative for the Kurds in the long run.

Meanwhile the KRG MUST now have a large major in place to deal with their oil and get things moving once their strategy is rock solid without likely change. There are now fundamental reasons for the KRG to insist that the pipelines now go straight to Turkey and NOT be connected to the existing pipeline, since the existing pipeline is now at risk of attack. Thus another important vital piece of the Kurd’s jigsaw will now fall into place.

The KRG have already met with Turkey and Turkey are deperate for a gas pipeline to go through Kurdisatn into Turkey. I posted my thoughts before on that score and in my opinion the ICG and the KRG BOTH need Turkey to paly ball and play ball they will with BOTH of them.

Exxon will wait until the year end and review their strategy. If there is little sign of the oil law being put to parliament or any mention of further delay and the game plan for Exxon changes? They can then move in for a full takeover of GKP without the O&GL and the KRG will welcome them with open arms.

Chevron and others might either join the bid process or mount a joint bid. I have no doubt at all that the bid from either Exxon or Chevron or Exxon/Chevron joint bid will be for a mixture of cash or and shares etc with loan notes being provided. This they will ensure they will also carry a decent portion of the private investors who can avoid large CGT bills.

I happen to think that Exxon have thrown their ball in the ring with their £8.00 un-official (lol) offer just to see the response. The ball has been firmly rejected. They will know only too well that Todd will come out fighting until he has a price that he feels is as good as he could achieve given the political circumstances.

Once Exxon get word that Ber Behar could be full of oil they will adjust their bid upwards accordingly. There is absolutely no way that the BOD of GKP will allow a ridiculously cheap deal be passed irrespective of the KRGs need to have a major onboard. The longer GKP remain independent the more oil GKP will have proved up and the better price paid at takeover.

We are worrying too much and not putting sufficient trust in Todd telling everyone that he believes Ber Behar to be full of oil along with Shaikan and SA with Bekhme about to be known shortly. He will not reamin silent and the KRG will allow the bid fisht to contuinue up to a point.

it is all going to pan out reasonably well for us shareholders all things considered. My bet is we will see £12.00 bid being eventually tabled and Exxon or Exxon/Chevron will be getting the deal of the century. Our true value will probably turn out to be at least £20.00 but that’s life.

The time for fighting will be when we hear of the first tentaive offer officasilly from GKP.

By then I hope to see everyone on this board singing from the same hymm book and screaming for a sum one hell of a lot larger than £8.00

All IMHO Miny

16:12


Re: through the grape vine part 2


mansooreo

14
I just got of the phone with my friend / contact this morning who works in ebril and first got me into GKP. I tried to ask a few questions that posters asked me to ask.

- I asked him first about the rumours of the Exxon TO / Bid and he flatly stated that there was no bid by Exxon.

- He talked about consolidation and that over the next 6 months that we will see a lot of the smaller oilies snapped up as the supergiants move into the area and secure their presence.

- He talked about the oil law being the only barrier and that Baghdad are stubborn people who are pro longing this process to fill their wallets.

- I brought him back to the Exxon bid again. He said everyone is aware of GKP, everyone knows that they are sitting on a goldmine and conformed that BB is filled to spill and that when the numbers are released that you will realize infact how big it is. He did emphasise that it was on a scale that was unimaginable. He also said further drilling is required.

- He also said that it is not uncommon for companies to test the waters with the media to gauge reaction. (not sure what he meant by that).

- I asked about PI's bein screwed. He said, there is no TO bid put forward, there maybe talk but there is always talk. He said that the only way that you and I wil be screwed is by the KRG. He said that at the end of the day they decide who GKP , birs, goes to.

- He said he doesnt know when oil law is going to pass, to many mixed signals from both sides, but says it should be soon.

- He reafrims that we are a long way, late 2012 from TO but whispers and speculation are all good things.

then we talked about other stuff.

thats all my notes say,
have agreat weekend!

Here's the part i like(esoecially to BB and filled to SPill)/

- I brought him back to the Exxon bid again. He said everyone is aware of GKP, everyone knows that they are sitting on a goldmine and conformed that BB is filled to spill and that when the numbers are released that you will realize infact how big it is. He did emphasise that it was on a scale that was unimaginable. He also said further drilling is required.

Published: Dec. 22, 2011 at 1:56 PM

IRBIL, Iraq, Dec. 22 (UPI) -- As Iraq looks like collapsing into another sectarian free-for-all, with energy resources a key prize, the semi-autonomous Kurdish region is like an island of stability and security.

In large part, that's because it's sitting on its own energy treasure house, an estimated 60 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, more than Libya's entire reserves, and 45 billion barrels of oil, roughly the amount Britain has produced from its North Sea fields.

"Sweeping changes … have taken place in Iraq's semi-autonomous northern region over the past decade, changes driven by the wealth that lies underneath its desolate landscape," observed the Financial Times.

"The days when Kurdistan was an economic backwater are over," Prime Minister Barham Salih told Kurdistan's first regional oil and gas conference in Irbil, the Kurdish capital, in November.

But the Kurdistan Regional Government, which runs the three northern provinces that constitute the Kurdish enclave, is locked in a bitter battle with the central government in Baghdad over oil rights and revenue-sharing as well as territory.

This seemingly intractable dispute has in recent weeks spread to other provinces that now seek more autonomy, including oil-rich Basra in the south, which contains two-thirds of Iraq's known oil reserves of 143.1 billion barrels.

With the Shiite-dominated government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki showing increasing signs of cracking down on minority Sunnis and Kurds, marginalizing them politically and concentrating all power in the hands of the majority Shiites now that U.S. forces have withdrawn, the stage seems set for major turmoil.

The KRG recently upped the stakes dramatically by signing an agreement with Exxon Mobil, the world's largest oil company, Oct. 18 to explore six blocks widely believed to be sure-fire gushers.

Exxon was the first international oil major to venture into Kurdistan, defying Maliki's government, which insists Baghdad alone can make such deals.

Exxon faces stiff reprisals by Baghdad but refuses to back down.

Meantime, as political infighting intensifies with the departure of the Americans, the Kurds and Sunnis are quitting Maliki's shaky coalition amid a wave of arrests by his security forces.

So Kurdistan, which also claims the Kirkuk oilfields in the north, is likely to be in the eye of the storm.

The Kurds' big problem is that their territory in the northeastern corner of Iraq is landlocked and to get their oil out they have to use state pipelines controlled by Baghdad.

Kurdish oil is pumped northward through twin pipelines to neighboring Turkey's Ceyhan terminal on the Mediterranean, so any break with Baghdad means no outlet for Kurdish crude.

But the Kurds have found a possible ally in Turkey, even though Ankara's a bitter opponent of the Kurds' burning ambition for an independent state.

The Turks fear an independent Kurdistan will encourage their own Kurdish rebels in their 20-year separatist war, as well as the wider region's 20 million Kurds.

Even so, Ankara may find Iraqi Kurds' support for the Turkish rebels might be dampened if Turkey gives the KRG separate access to Ceyhan.

Turkey, with no energy resources of its own, is particularly eager to import natural gas to fuel its power stations, possibly via a new pipeline from Kurdistan.

"The large deposits of natural gas in Iraqi Kurdistan and a booming bilateral trade -- together with a better mutual security understanding -- have led to much-improved relations," the Financial Times' Commodities Editor Javier Blas reported.

The presence of senior Turkish officials at the Irbil oil and gas conference testified to that.

"Turkey is even talking about connecting an export pipeline from Kurdistan to the projected Nabucco pipeline which would link the gas-rich Caucasus and Central Asia to energy-hungry European nations," said Blas.

Kurdistan is currently capable of producing 100,000 barrels of oil per day. That's scheduled to hit 175,000 bpd in 2012.

But if Exxon Mobil or any of the 40 smaller outfits that also have contracts with the KRG strike it big, KRG Natural Resources Minister Ashti Hawrami says production could reach 1 million bpd by 2015.

If Iraq starts to fragment, that could convince other oil majors to invest in Kurdistan.


Read more: http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Resources/2011/12/22/As-Iraq-smolders-Kurds-sit-on-oil-riches/UPI-97641324580189/#ixzz1hIRTF9iU

http://seekingalpha.com/article/315602-gulf-keystone-is-sitting-on-billion-barrel-onshore-oilfields?source=from_friend

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-22/iraq-oil-output-has-reached-a-20-year-high-shahristani-says.html

Looks like a dip,could be pi's closing before Xmas?

What a great day's trading for GKP,just half a day and almost 3.5m? The 2 final trades of 20k &60k at 188p or more seem to say it all,stake building. Just 3 trading days left so will release Behme-1 results as indicated and if they're as good as thought,what will the SP
be?

ecember 25, 2011

ERBIL-Hewlêr, Kurdistan region 'Iraq', — Kurdistan Regional Government President Massoud Barzani is wrapping up the last phase of establishing an independent Kurdish state, according to an inside source from Sare Rash, Barzani's palace complex.

In a telephone conversation with U.S. President Obama, Barzani maintained that should the political process fails in Baghdad, his administration would instantaneously proclaim an independent Kurdish state.

President Barzani relayed the message to his Turkish counterparts through Turkish consulate in Erbil.

On December 23, 2011, a special delegation made up of senior Turkish military and intelligence officers landed in Sare Rash to hold talks with President Barzani in this regard. Further cooperation in field of energy was also discussed in this secret meeting.

Emerging oil and gas frontiers attract attention

9:00 am by Jamie Ashcroft

The pace that the Kurdistan oil play has advanced in 2011 is an example of the excitement that can be created by new and emerging oil frontiers The pace that the Kurdistan oil play has advanced in 2011 is an example of the excitement that can be created by new and emerging oil frontiers.

The semi-autonomous region of northern Iraq is one of the world’s last great oil frontiers, according to former BP boss Tony Hayward.

This widely cited comment was made amid the summer’s frenzied land grab in Kurdistan when in a few short weeks most of the region’s prospective land was snapped up by mid-tier oil companies.

The period also saw Vallares, then a £2 billion vehicle for Hayward and City financier Nat Rothschild, merge with Turkish firm Genel, one of the leading players in Kurdistan. Afren (LON:AFR) and Petroceltic (LON:PCI) also inked deals in the region.

In fact, barely a week goes by without further deals being agreed. So far the majors are yet to show their hands, though there are reports, still not confirmed, that ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) is ready to plant its flag in Kurdistan.

The experience of Gulf Keystone Petroleum (LON:GKP) is an interesting case study of how success with the drill bit in a newly emerging sphere of interest can utterly transform a company’s fortunes.

Borrowing parlance used by gold prospectors of old, GKP has hit the mother lode with its Shaikan discovery in Kurdistan, which is estimated to contain between 8 and 13.4 billion barrels of oil

Prior to striking first oil in August 2009, shares in the explorer were changing hands at just 13p. Now, nearly two years on, they are worth just under 200p a share, which values the company at £1.6 billion.

It is a vivid illustration of what can happen to a junior explorer when it strikes big in an up-and-coming oil frontier.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/37295/emerging-oil-and-gas-frontiers-attract-attention-37295.html

China ready to bid in Kurdistan?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-16336453

Kurdistan: Gulf Keystone’s $1 Billion Baby

By Brian O'Connell


December 27, 2011




Buyout rumors boost stock prices for Gulf Keystone as interest in reserves in Kurdistan in northern Iraq peaks.

Christmas came early for Gulf Keystone Petroleum shareholders this holiday season, as the oil company announced a Kurdistan oil find valued at $1 billion.

What’s better is this -- the company’s market cap is significantly lower than its competitors, leaving a nice window of opportunity for quick-minded investors.

As always, there are some caveats. Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd. (GKP) is a high-priced, high-premium investment. Its stock price is trading at about $189 per share this week, but there’s a lot of volatility in that number. Over the past 52 weeks, the company’s stock price has fluctuated between $87 and $225 per share.

But since hitting it big in the oil fields of Kurdistan, and thanks to some well-placed rumors of a buyout, Gulf Keystone's stock has been on a steady upward trend -- from $120 in October to almost $200 per share in December. The stock really took off in early November, rising from $130 per share to $190 per share in the first two weeks of the month, largely due to heightened rumors of a block sale of one of its drilling sites in Kurdistan (Arki-Bijeel).

That block, which analysts say holds 2.4 billion barrels of oil, was the subject of substantial buzz in oil trading circles in November.

"We've got a lot of interested parties, but we have not identified a purchaser," Gulf Keystone chief executive officer Todd Kozel told Reuters on Nov. 13. "We haven't gone to the bidding process yet. It's in the data room process, data gathering and identifying interest.

"Kurdistan is the hottest play in town in the oil business," Kozel said, adding that the region is Iraq’s most stable area, a further enticement for skittish investors.

But rumors of an outright sale -- ExxonMobil was a favorite target among investors -- is just that -- a rumor. "Gulf Keystone is not for sale," Kozel added. "We have not been approached by any company making an offer."

Gulf Keystone’s $1 Billion Baby

Gulf Keystone’s Kurdistan oil fields are valued at $1 billion by energy analysts. Here is a breakdown of what the oil giant owns -- and where: Shaikan, 51%; Sheikh Adi, 80%; Ber Bahr, 40%; and Akri-Bijeel, 13%.

The Shaikan site is especially lucrative, with an estimated eight-to-13 billion barrels of oil in the ground. Not all of that oil is easily recoverable, though. Independent analysts say 20% to 35% are easily recoverable.

Last March, Gulf Keystone discovered a huge oil field at the Shaikan-2 well, and reported more oil discoveries were likely.

Figuring Out GKP

So how does Kurdistan play into Gulf Keystone’s stock price, and how should investors approach a GKP position in their portfolio?

The strategy starts with information gathering, and a good place to start is with Gulf Keystone’s market capitalization picture. Overall, the market cap stands at about $2 billion, but various analyst reports out recently say that ExxonMobil, in vetting GKP’s financial assets, say the market cap number should be much larger, maybe even up to $7 billion.

Devon Shire, an anagram for an oil analyst who contributes to the financial web site Seeking Alpha, said the GKP market capitalization picture rests in large part on that multi-billion dollar oil field in northern Iraq.

Citing the rumor that Exxon is ready to pull the trigger on a Gulf Keystone buyout, Shire pulls out his calculator and works the numbers. What he finds is certainly attractive to potential buyers of GKP stock.

Here is what he has to say about GKP: “Independent reservoir engineering firms have estimated that Shaikan’s oil in place is 8 billion to 13 billion barrels. GKP owns 51% of this, so if we take the middle of that range it means that GKP controls 50% of 10.5 billion barrels (5.25 billion) in the Shaikan field.

“I’ve read a few analyst reports on GKP and the general consensus is that 20% to 35% of this oil can be recovered. I'll take the middle of that range and assume that 27.5% of GKP’s 5.25 billion barrels of oil in place can be recovered. That would equal 27.5% x 5.25 billion = 1.44 billion barrels.

“The market capitalization of GKP in dollars is just over 2.0 billion. That means that at the current share price, investors are paying just over $1 per barrel of recoverable oil,” Shire continued.

Shire notes that the Shaikan field is low-hanging fruit for Gulf Keystone, and light years away from the well-documented difficulties oil companies have in pulling oil from several miles under the ocean.

“Lifting costs are estimated by GKP management to be somewhere around $3 per barrel. Do you think an oil company could make some money with this oil field and oil prices around $100?” Shire asked.

Maybe that’s why the Wall Street buzz has ExxonMobil offering $11 billion for GKP. For the record, both ExxonMobil and Gulf Keystone maintain there is nothing to the rumors of a buyout.

But the rumors alone were enough to drive up Gulf Keystone’s stock price 25% on Dec. 19, after a story appeared in the U.K.-based Independent that a deal was in the offing the day before.

While there’s no guarantee that ExxonMobil, or any other major oil company, will make an offer on Gulf Keystone, there is a guarantee that GKP is onto something big with its Kurdistan find.

Investors have already taken notice. And with room for growth, expect more buying activity on GKP.

leesbillbob - 27 Dec'11 - 21:40 - 143086 of 143086

Iraq’s PM increases his grip on power in push that raises Shiite-Sunni tensions
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By Associated Press, Updated: Tuesday, December 27, 2:17 PM

BAGHDAD — In the week since the last American troops left Iraq, Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki ordered an arrest warrant for the country’s highest-ranking Sunni official, threatened to exclude the rival sect’s main political party from his government and warned that “rivers of blood” would flow if Sunnis seek an autonomous region.

The moves confirmed what many longtime observers of Iraqi politics have suspected since al-Maliki came to office more than five years ago — that he has an authoritarian streak and beneath his tireless rhetoric about national unity is essentially a sectarian politician.

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(Carolyn Kaster, File/Associated Press) - FILE - In this Monday, Dec. 12, 2011 file photo, Iraq’s Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki gestures during his news conference with President Barack Obama in the South Court Auditorium on the White House complex in Washington. In the week since the last American troops left Iraq, Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki ordered an arrest warrant for the country’s highest-ranking Sunni official, threatened to exclude the rival sect from his government and warned that “rivers of blood” would flow if Sunnis seek an autonomous region. The moves confirmed what many long-time observers of Iraqi politics have suspected since al-Maliki came to office more than five years ago _ that he has an authoritarian streak and beneath his tireless rhetoric about national unity is essentially a sectarian politician.

As a result, the veneer of sectarian unity that the United States tried to paint over Iraq’s leadership throughout a 9-year presence is quickly being washed away after the departure of American forces.

The first casualty could be the unity government that al-Maliki heads, uneasily combining his powerful Shiite alliance with a Sunni-backed bloc. It took nine months after Iraq’s elections in March last year to put it together, under heavy American pressure to include the Sunnis, but al-Maliki never liked it and is increasingly saying he wants a government based on the majority in parliament, which would squeeze out Sunnis.

And al-Maliki has made clear he intends keep a strong grip heading that government.

“I have been working here for six years and I will be here for another six,” al-Maliki told a news conference last week.

He has been accruing power since rising to his post in 2006 in a process that has accelerated since the new government was formed a year ago. He effectively runs the Defense and Interior Ministries and has created a separate security force that answers to him alone. He has bypassed parliament to install Shiite allies in key positions, and he has used his control over state funds and resources to gain leverage with the judiciary and oversight agencies like the anti-graft Integrity Commission.

The one risk al-Maliki runs is that he will disillusion Shiite parties making up the bulk of his government, some of which are longtime political rivals. On Monday, a lawmaker in the powerful party of radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr floated the idea of holding new elections to resolve the political turmoil. Bahaa al-Aaraji quickly backed off the idea, saying it was just his personal opinion, but his comment underlined how Shiite rivals could turn on the prime minister.

Nevertheless, for the moment, Shiite parties are strongly backing al-Maliki, unified by their common fear that Sunnis want to take back power that their minority community lost with the 2003 fall of Saddam Hussein’s Sunni-dominated regime.

Last week, the Shiite bloc issued a statement saying rulings of the judiciary must be adhered to, language that was seen as a show of support for al-Maliki’s arrest warrant against Sunni Vice President and longtime critic Tariq al-Hashemi.

Al-Maliki accuses al-Hashemi of organizing assassinations, and the warrant has sparked a political crisis. Al-Hashemi denied the charges. The Iraqiya bloc to which he belongs is boycotting parliament, complaining that al-Maliki does not share power, and it is threatening to pull out of the unity government.
The prime minister also asked parliament to issue a vote of no-confidence in Iraqiya lawmaker Saleh al-Mutlaq in what could be a prelude to removing or prosecuting him. Al-Mutlaq, a deputy prime minister, branded al-Maliki a dictator in a TV interview while the Shiite leader was visiting Washington this month.

For Sunnis, the moves stoke fears that the majority Shiites want to exclude them from politics and completely dominate the country. They also worry that increasing Shiite power will translate into greater influence from neighboring, Shiite-led Iran. On Sunday, Iran’s armed forces chief of staff Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi said his country was ready to expand its military, defense and security relations with Iraq now that the Americans have left, according to Iran’s state news agency IRNA.



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(Carolyn Kaster, File/Associated Press) - FILE - In this Monday, Dec. 12, 2011 file photo, Iraq’s Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki gestures during his news conference with President Barack Obama in the South Court Auditorium on the White House complex in Washington. In the week since the last American troops left Iraq, Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki ordered an arrest warrant for the country’s highest-ranking Sunni official, threatened to exclude the rival sect from his government and warned that “rivers of blood” would flow if Sunnis seek an autonomous region. The moves confirmed what many long-time observers of Iraqi politics have suspected since al-Maliki came to office more than five years ago _ that he has an authoritarian streak and beneath his tireless rhetoric about national unity is essentially a sectarian politician.

Al-Maliki, meanwhile, has been able to exploit Shiite fears of a Sunni resurgence to keep his coalition’s backing while he expands his personal role. Helping him is the lack of any credible Shiite rival, with former prime minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari and former vice president Adil Abdel-Mahdi viewed as too weak to take his job. Also, parliament has been unable to exercise full oversight because it is fractured and deeply divided on sectarian and ethnic lines.

His holding of the defense and interior portfolios gives him direct power over the military and police, though he recently appointed a Sunni ally as acting defense minister.

He has sole control over security forces deployed in Baghdad, creating the Baghdad Operations Command, an elite outfit that is independent from the ministries. The force was created during the height of violence several years ago and was meant to be temporary, but he has kept it in place.

The command, according to aides familiar with the inner workings of al-Maliki’s office, takes its orders exclusively from the prime minister and reports to him alone. The commander of the Baghdad-based forces, his deputy and chief of staff are all Shiites loyal to the prime minister, said the aides.

His control over funds for assigning security details for judges, for example, or offering them safe housing out of militants’ reach and inside Baghdad’s heavily protected Green Zone has meant that many senior judges became beholden to al-Maliki, said the aides, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject.

At the same time, he has worked to defend his Shiite allies against corruption allegations that he consistently dismisses as “media talk.” This month, a senior Shiite official from the Baghdad provincial council, Saber al-Issawi, was summoned for questioning by parliament on corruption allegations, but the probe was soon halted and the entire case was shelved.

“Al-Maliki is willing to sacrifice government partners like the Sunnis and the Kurds, but not Shiite allies,” said one aide.

The prime minister appears increasingly willing to dump the unity government by pushing out the Iraqiya bloc, threatening that ministers who decide to stay away from Cabinet meetings will be foregoing their jobs as a result.

His aides also speak of him running for a third term when his current 4-year stint ends in 2014, despite his earlier promises that he would not run again.

But the greater fear is that al-Maliki’s offensive on the Sunni politicians could re-ignite the sectarian violence that tore the country apart in 2006 and 2007. Without the Americans acting as a buffer between Sunnis and Shiites, an explosion of violence now could be even worse.

“The man is becoming more authoritarian, because he believes the coalition government is uncomfortable for him,” said political analyst Kadhum al-Muqdadi. “The prime minister should ideally be for all Iraqis, not just for his sect.”

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