.

Drill results soon. Could be this week, more likely next week.

Duster means below 2p.

Gas should be over 10p

Oil could get up over 30p.


Good luck all, keep them fingers crossed.

A reminder of why Ntorya-1 was selected as the next drill target. From the Shore Cap note of late last year....



..........Likonde-1 targeted multiple reservoirs, including Tertiary and Cretaceous intervals, to a planned total vertical depth of 3,200m. This was primarily an oil prospect, with upside resource potential estimated at 153mmboe (million barrels of oil equivalent) and an estimated one in four chance of success.

Results from Likonde-1 were reported in April 2010 after a powerful gas influx halted drilling at an extended total depth of 3,650m. Results from drilling, logging and coring showed that the well had intersected two sandstone intervals with a combined thickness of over 820 feet (250m), and evidence of residual oil and gas. High gas readings were recorded through most of the well bore, with drill cuttings and sidewall cores providing evidence of crude oil.

Although Likonde-1 was not a flowing, commercial discovery, the hydrocarbon shows and potential net reservoir thickness provided lots of encouragement ahead of drilling of a second exploration well. Residual hydrocarbons demonstrate that there is a working petroleum system, although the oil appears to have migrated beyond the cap rock overlaying the reservoir. Anadarko‟s Ironclad well, drilled offshore in 2010, seems to support this theory, providing documented evidence of liquid hydrocarbons elsewhere in the basin.

The priority for the partners was therefore to find a structure with an effective trapping mechanism and, following evaluation of new data acquired during drilling of Likonde-1, Ntorya-1 was selected as the next drilling location. Ntorya-1 is scheduled for spudding in early December 2011, at an estimated cost of US$10-11m (100%). Drilling will fulfil the partners‟ work commitments for the current exploration phase, which will expire shortly.

Ntorya-1 will target the same high-quality Lower Tertiary reservoir sands encountered in the Likonde-1 well, and will be drilled about 14 kilometres south of that well‟s location, to a planned total depth of approximately 2,000m. The shallower depth means that Ntorya-1 will be cheaper to drill than the first exploration well. Mid-case recoverable resource potential of 100mmboe is estimated by the operator, with a 20% probability of success.

Aminex announced on 8th September 2011 that it had agreed to assume operatorship and increase its stake to 56.25% at Ruvuma, with Solo simultaneously announcing that it was to take its interest to 18.75%. Given Aminex‟s existing presence and operating capability in Tanzania, we think that this is a very logical outcome that should expedite the work programme, lead to operational efficiencies and reduce costs. Tullow retains a 25% stake.......

III rumour.

freakonomics
14:35
AEX Source in Dublin says they hit the black stuff!!!

Buys are building...........ummmmmm.

Wild rampy rumour from III ?

Or some truth in it.


Casing at the weekend, if they finished Saturday they could be entering the target zone now....... a little early imo, but then, we do not know where they are.

Its plausible they are into the target zone now.

If we get a 20% rise today it might force an update to come out tomorrow morning to clarify the reason (or not) for the rise ?

Let me drag up my valuations for oil and gas at Ntorya-1 (just in case this rumour has some legs).


VALUATION TIME FOR GAS AT NTORYA-1

P10 = 960 BCF of recoverable gas

Aminex Share is 56.25% = 540 BCF

Using a figure of 1p to AEX for each 24.5 BCF of gas in Tanzania.

540 / 24.5 = 22.04p

Ntorya-1 GAS strike at P10 level = 22.04p per share to Aminex.

-------------------------------

P50 = 600 BCF of recoverable gas

Aminex Share is 56.25% = 337.5 BCF

Using a figure of 1p to AEX for each 24.5 BCF of gas in Tanzania.

337.5 / 24.5 = 13.77p

Ntorya-1 GAS strike at P50 level = 13.77p per share to Aminex.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

VALUATION TIME FOR OIL AT NTORYA-1

P10 = 160 MMBO of recoverable oil

Aminex Share is 56.25% = 90 million barrels

90 million barrels valued at a lowly 6 US$ in the ground (low valuation to allow for dilution, should be higher as this is only 30km from a port where oil could be trucked in the first instance for quick sales).


90,000,000 x 6 = 540,000,000 US$ = 346,000,000 pounds.

Aminex shares in issue = 819,000,000


Ntorya-1 strike at P10 level valued at 6 US% a barrel in the ground = 42.24p per share to Aminex.

-------------------------------

P50 = 100 MMBO of recoverable oil

Aminex Share is 56.25% = 56.25 million barrels

56.25 million barrels valued at a lowly 6 US$ in the ground (low valuation to allow for dilution, should be higher as this is only 30km from a port where oil could be trucked in the first instance for quick sales).


56,250,000 x 6 = 337,500,000 US$ = 216,000,000 pounds.

Aminex shares in issue = 819,000,000


Ntorya-1 strike at P50 level valued at 6 US% a barrel in the ground = 26.37p per share to Aminex.

Strong strong day.

Look at this.

What??

more north likely tomorrow apparently!!

Before everyone gets too carried away or gets too excited/depressed, its worth going back to the DAVY note on AEX on 6th of Jan.



6th Jan 2012

Aminex (AEX ID)

Equity investment at premium completes
Job Langbroek

J & E Davy Stockbrokers

FACTS: Aminex has announced the admission to the official list of the Irish Stock Exchange and the UK listing authority of shares issued under a share subscription agreement entered into on December 23rd. The subscription was for 40m shares and was completed at par value of 6c or 5p. The shares will be held in equal measure by Empire Asia, a Thailand-based investment company, and Dr Chanchai Ruayrungruang, the Chairman of the Reignwood Group – a major China-based investment company.

The new shares represent some 4.76% of the enlarged equity. Separately, Aminex is also in preliminary talks with both parties to the agreement to establish a broader strategic alliance to finance the acquisition and development of oil and gas projects in the African continent.

ANALYSIS: The subscription was completed at a price some 45% higher than the pre-close market price. The funds will be applied to general business activities in the group. Importantly, the statement holds out the possibility that the further investment may flow from much the same source.

While early days yet, is a clear possibility that Aminex will become a route for Asian funds into African resource exploration and development. If such funds were to become available, this would open up considerably more potential to develop its asset base.

Separately, the group also announced just before Christmas that the Ntorya-1 well had spudded. Management believes that this well has a 20% chance of success and is targeting 100m barrels in a Tertiary and Upper Cretaceous section.

DAVY VIEW: This is a very positive development for the group and while it is not yet clear how it will evolve, the addition of a very strong shareholder to the list will be of benefit to all. The advent of the Ntorya-1 well is also good news and opens up the group to a potentially value-transforming event. We value the group at 14.0p in total, with Ntorya making up 4.0p per share of this on a pre-drill risked basis but over 20p per share if the well is successful, a multiple of the current share price.

.

Worth a read.........

http://boards.fool.co.uk/cov-cove-energy-and-aex-12462848.aspx?sort=whole

.

.

Thai-Chinese investor in AEX.

+

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/PTTEP-eyes-E-Africa-but-stays-mum-on-plans-to-bid--30174361.html

=5

.

Pretty much all to timescale really.

Spud RNS says 30 days drilling to get to target zone.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112230935015773U

....Ntorya-1 will be drilled as a vertical well to a planned total depth of 2026m, using the Caroil-6 rig and is expected to reach the main target in around 30 days from spud...........


-----------------------------------------

Update RNS says Total Depth (end of drilling) will be late January

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201101031552848V

........The target interval of the well is approximately 1,800 to 1,900 metres depth. Ntorya-1 is expected to reach total depth in late January 2012.......


---------------------------------------


So spud early evening on 22nd Dec.

30 days to target zone (circa 1800 metres) would be 21st Jan.

We had rumour of oil on 23rd Jan - which would tie in to the schedule if you allow for a bit of delay here and there or seismic processing errors on depth. The lack of any denial about the big price rise perhaps indicates something is there on an oily nature (although until wireline is run nothing can be said of an official nature)

So, TD (Total Depth) reach perhaps Thursday or Friday, pull the drill bit out, run wireline - looks fine for a Monday RNS.


But that is all assumption, and could therefore be wrong totally. Whatever, the sudden volume spike of nearly 23 million shares at just the right time for them to be in the target zone is quite suspicious, nicely suspicious of course, not a nasty suspicious.


Friday for dry, Monday for wet imo.

.

Could be....... but a sudden 23 million volume on Monday kind of points to potentially oil shows......... given how AEX has fallen a few days before bad news each time using this rig and crew.

So a sudden buying spike could suggest that the leaks from on site are positive this time, not negative ones.

Who knows ? Not me.

.