Why Have Globo Plc & Tern PLC Been So Volatile In Recent Days?
The Motley Fool By Alessandro Pasetti - Wednesday, 16 September, 2015

Tern (LSE: TERN) fell almost 14% from its intra-day high on Tuesday, but Globo (LSE: GBO) fared even worse yesterday, when its shares lost 16% of value during the trading session.
Here’s my quick take on these two very different companies.

Top Pick
Globo’s downbeat performance since mid-June has surprised me. Its shares roared back today, and were up 15% at the time of writing, but I am puzzled. It is really hard to say why they have fallen and risen so much during the last couple of days, given that aside from an update on its high-yield bond fundraising, there’s not been much to report this week.

“This process has been delayed by market events through the summer of 2015,” the tech company said on Monday, and it’s possible that investors were not pleased with that. Still, it also said that its financing plans have received “strong interest from numerous investors“, and frankly its balance sheet doesn’t strike me as being particularly stretched, while its core cash flow profile is sound. Trading multiples also point to value.

It has succumbed to broader market volatility in the third quarter, but its first-half trading update was decent and personally I think its stock remains a good buy at 28p.

Risk
Tern is up 10% today, and currently trades at 21p. This is a tiny firm that invests in the tech world, and as such I would expect it to have a relatively weak balance sheet, negative operating cash flows and funding needs that are essentially backed by investors who are willing to embrace risk.

That’s precisely what you’d be buying today, which is not necessarily a big problem given that its investment portfolio could indeed deliver rapidly rising returns.

The biggest risk is represented by possible dilution stemming from several rounds of equity financing that may be needed to support its cost base as well as its ambitious expansion plans.

Until higher revenues are generated, though, personally I’d leave it to opportunistic traders.

30.50p +1.75p

Moving up fast now
Plenty of interest at the moment and share price following yesterday's bounce

and much faster now on reaching 32 v 33p+3.75p with 1.1M volume on just 2 hours of trading.

there was a 50K buy @ 32.90p that got things moving

At twiter
Aim Buster ‏@AIM_Buster 15h15 hours ago
#Globoplc $GBO
Have started to scale in for the push up. Excellent company. Interims due end of Sep

from the British Bulls tonight..........

GLOBO
Last Signal:BUY
Last Pattern:BULLISH HARAMI
Last Close:31.00 Change:+2.25 change+7.83%

Confirmation Status
Signal Update Our system’s recommendation today is to BUY. The BULLISH HARAMI pattern finally received a confirmation because the prices crossed above the confirmation level which was at 28.75p

another nice start of the day to 33.25p +2p, hope it last

Very volatile of late, but I still think this is undervalued and in due course will be higher and more stable. Here's hoping anyway.

MORE from Motley fool........

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/267365/are-these-3-aim-stocks-set-soar-boohoocom-plc-monitise-plc-and-globo-plc

Similarly, mobile apps specialist Globo (LSE:GBO) also has huge potential. It focuses on creating efficiencies for companies using mobile devices and, in the last five years, has increased profit at an annualised rate of 36%. Furthermore, Globo has increased its bottom line in each one of those years, indicating that it is a very consistent performer.

Looking ahead, Globo is forecast to continue its strong performance by posting a rise in net profit of 21% in the current year, followed by further growth of 17% next year. And, with its share price having fallen by 20% since the turn of the year, Globo has a PEG ratio of only 0.2. This indicates that it has a very wide margin of safety, thereby moving the risk/reward ratio further in the investor's favour.

In addition, with Globo having only a modest amount of debt on its balance sheet (its debt to equity ratio stands at just 24%), it seems to be sensibly financed and all set to post stunning share price gains over the long term.

35.125p +1.125 (+3.32%)

ahead of interim results tomorrow the shares are rising with volume today

getting on with the spike and reaching 37 at one time, very busy at the moment, as there is some larger trades on the offer side, most likely do not want to wait for figures and take their profits.

36.125p +0.1.125p

another supper results from the company that makes it so undervalued.......

"Globo"

INTERIM RESULTS FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 JUNE 2015
Financial highlights

• Revenue up 56% to €72.4 million (H1 2014: €46.5 million)
o GO!Enterprise revenue up 126% to €44.9 million (H1 2014: €19.9 million)
o CitronGO! and GO!Social revenue up 6% to €21.3 million (H1 2014: €20.1 million)
o Telecom & SaaS revenue grew 16% YoY to €5.0 million (H1 2014: €4.3 million)
• The Group continues to build on its strong recurring revenue streams:
o GO!Enterprise EMM & MADP had a renewal rate of the prior year's licences of roughly 99%
o 68% of GO!Enterprise MBS project revenue was generated by repeat orders
• H1 Gross profit margin increased to 59% (H1 2014: 58%) primarily due to the increased proportion of direct sales
• EBITDA increased 55% to €34.2 million (H1 2014: €22.0 million)
• Last twelve months (LTM) EBITDA was €63.1 million
• Profit before tax rose 37% to €22.0 million (H1 2014: €16.1 million)
• Earnings per share increased 14% to €0.049 (H1 2014: €0.043)
• Net cash generated from operations increased to €21.0 million (H1 2014: €16.6 million)
• Free cash flow1 of €7.2 million (H1 2014: €4.2 million)
• LTM free cash flow of €10.3 million
• Net cash position increased to €47.4 million (31 December 2014: €40.4 million)

Outlook
• Our positioning within the field of Mobile Enterprise creates strong momentum for further growth in enterprise customers and new project wins.
• Strong business momentum is expected due to the traditionally stronger second half of the year and continued US expansion.
• Our current cash position and cash flow covers all of our operating requirements and will enable us to pursue selective acquisition opportunities in the near term. In order to grow the business through more sizeable acquisitions, we continue our High Yield Bond discussions. Globo maintains a prudent view on the methods of financing its acquisition led growth.

Commenting on the results, Costis Papadimitrakopoulos, CEO of Globo, said:

"We are proud of the continued success of our growth strategy. Over the course of just a few years, Globo has been positioned as one of the leaders in the Mobile Enterprise space and our business continues to evolve in a number of different business areas. Our International operations and growing US presence are driving opportunities for our customers and the Enterprise transformation towards mobile systems and applications is accelerating.

We remain committed to increasing shareholder value, both through organic growth and strategic investments in technology, expertise and market reach."

36.875p +1.875p

Steady buying after the supper results, with top of the mark the 100K buy @ 37.2975p
expect some movement soon

comment - cheap as chips

Globo - Focus on cash management

Strong beat, but known. As we published in Globo:
_Strong_H1_beat_'EUR"_It's_not_all bad_in_Greece, Globo's 1H revenues beat our revenue estimates by c17%, mainly driven by Go!Enterprise and MAPD sales.
Turning to profitability, gross margin was 1.3 percentage points above our 58% forecast at 59.3% due to better direct sales and EBITDA of 'x¬34.2M was comfortably ahead of our 'x¬30.9M forecast while EBITDA margin of 47% was slightly below our 50% estimate.

Focus on cash management 'EUR" shining a light on DSO's: with all of the key metrics having been reported at the end of July, investors' attention should be focused on cash flow management. Free cash flow of 'x¬7.2M was up significantly on last year's 'x¬4.2M. Net cash has improved as a result to 'x¬47.4M from 'x¬40.4M as of December.

Despite this, high growth has led to a significant increase in the cash outflow from working capital ('x¬15m in 1H15 vs 'x¬9.3m in 1H14). Globo management has also used the

1H release to shine a light on Days Sale Outstanding (DSO's), the company argues that a simplistic approach to DSO's does not fully capture the underlying movements as LTM revenue does not include the service component of licence sales (recognised as deferred revenue), but this is included in their receivables. Their definition of receivables also excludes prepayments to vendors. Under the new disclosure, DSO's have increased by 15 days to 129 (from 114 days in LTM 1H14). In expansion mode. Globo has signed a conditional letter of intent (LOI) to acquire a European mobile Bring-Your-Own-Device (BYOD) and Mobile Security Software provider. While the name of the target is still undisclosed, the company had previously flagged that it would use M&A to accelerate the growth strategy (see Globo:_In_expansion_mode).

The company has also highlighted that while the current cash position enables it to pursue selective acquisitions opportunities, high yield bond discussions will be continuing. In addition, Globo intends to continue with their U.S. expansion which now accounts for 21% of total group revenue. Valuation. We estimate Globo trades on a 2016E EV/sales of 0.5x, EV/EBITDA of 1.0x and P/E of 3.3x.Globo - Focus on cash management

Good numbers again, let's hope we're out of this down channel now.

still moving ahead after yesterday's smashing results. The way they go short term soon will be on the overbought position, so looking closely at the Level 2 and sold at 39.34p

Hopefully shorts closing their positions too.

Who has been buying all along on reaching lows?
FVC more than double their holding and certainly did not report at 4% or 5% but well over 6%, is that the lot they wanted.? ..............

. Forum Venture Capital GmbH
. from 11,209,375 to 23,526,495 with over 6% or 6,296%
. Date of the transaction and date on which the threshold is crossed or reached: 12th October 2015

It seems the buying by V. Capital have stop lately and since the shares are moving lower, SP have had a bad day with a spike down to 30.25p at one time, has bounce since to 33p -5p

The shorters attack goes on today and moving under 30p .......

an old article ..........
By Alessandro Pasetti - Tuesday, 29 September, 2015

That was quick!
You’d have recorded a 35% pre-tax gain if you had followed my advice to consider Globo (LSE: GBO) at 28p a share on 16 September — a “top pick“, as I described it.

The obvious question now is whether its shareholders will enjoy a true value story, or if rapidly rising returns are destined to fade away — let’s delve into its interim results, which were released today.

Strength
Globo’s stock price has risen 8.2%, to 38p, so far today — and rightly so, in the wake of a solid trading update.

Recent news about its strategy also bodes well for long-term value.

Strength is in the numbers, and although its growth rate for net income per share is lower than that of other key metrics and may point to a risky investment, you should pay attention to a few other details at this stage of maturity for this tech business. In fact, its most relevant financial metrics indicate that the group is on the right pattern of growth, driven by mobile.

Its interim results for the years ended on 30 June showed:

Revenue up 56% to €72.4m (1H14: €46.5m);
A 55% rise in EBITDA to €34.2 (1H14: €22m);
Last twelve months EBITDA at €63.1m;
Pre-tax profit up 37% to €22 (1H14: €16.1m);
Net operating cash up €21m (1H14: €16.6m);
Net cash increased to €47.4m (31 December 2014: €40.4m).
Based on the value of its current assets, its price-to-tangible book value, cash flow and earnings multiples, I don’t see why Globo could not double to 74p, or at least trade closer to its 52-week high of 64p over time.

While it’s true that its lowly earnings per share (EPS increased 14% to €0.049 versus €0.043 in 1H14) could get lower following the issuance of its upcoming high-yield bond, your focus over the next four to six quarters ought to be on its revenues and core cash flow profile, both of which in my view suggest that Globo deserves a valuation some 15p to 25p higher, based on fundamentals.

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