.

A COS of 30% is blinking good in my book

mean while rf and co are locked in with an sp drifting down to 50p

If as you state, the share price will drift down to 50p, no problems........Just buy more, hence more profits for the "Piggy Bank", and that’s without an oil find.......Yet!

Quick summary of the Q&A session that someone has done.


1) The first question on the topic was concerning why Scotia is viewed as an oil opportunity, rather than gas.

According to Noble, the gas discovery (Loligo) was in a younger section, whereas Scotia is in a deeper zone. Also, the seismic attributes are indicative. They had expected Loligo to be gas, but very different with Scotia.

2) Another question on seismic.

Will be shooting 3D at end of this year. Noble would prefer to explore after 3D, but was not possible in this case. 2D adds more risk, so really important to get the 3D. If fortunate, and initial well successful, great, but get a better picture with the 3D. Good thing is that Scotia will give some real data, and will set up for a multi-well exploration programme in 2014. Kind of like Noble did it in west Africa.

4) Question on Loligo.

Noble looking for oil, not gas, which was one of the reasons why they did not participate in the first well (which they felt would be gas)

5) Question on NFB, and rig market

Not going into the North Falkland basin. South large enough to keep them busy for a long time. Regarding the Loligo well, they do not have the well results. From own interpretation, they feel there is some encouragement regarding their hopes that Scotia will be an oil well. But they know no more than what is in FOGL's press release.Regarding 2014 programme, they are looking to see what rig might be available--c.20 rigs would fit in that environment, and just canvassing the market at the moment. Still early in the process.

6) Appraisal drilling question

Appraisal would be an appraisal of a Scotia success. If not successful, would start exploration after 3D. Length of drilling programme depends on success.

7) If thin sands came on Scotia, but oil shows, would this be OK?

Anything that indicates oil would be "very interesting". Quite broad possibilities as to what they'll find. 3D will tell them more. But "finding oil would be very encouraging"

Yes we're all waiting with baited breath in anticipation of a successful oil find!!..lol

baited breath rather implies a bad case of halitosis .... try "bated" :-))

Q&A Session

Why does Miss P copy and paste the same old stuff time after time?

Because she doesn't have anything better to do.

Why did Miss P create grannygirl to 'speak' to those she has squelched?

No idea and who cares anyway.

Yesterdays rise was probably a dose of panic by shorters...... they had been increasing their short positions as per below chart and Nobles positive vibes must have kicked them where it hurt and they had to close off quickly some of their positions.

:) LOL


Stock on loan chart below - which will capture a lot of the shorting of FOGL.




.

question #1 - why would the average joe want to hang on to fogl (and others) if there is not going to be any meaningful news for another year?

question #2 - how many shares are there in issue for fogl, for if only 3m on loan, that would look to be a piffling %?

cynic, why are you holding GKP now ? No major news coming for years, only possible bad news with Israel air strike on Iran early next year.

Also, the stock on loan is more relative to the normal daily trading volume in the shorter term - not the total shares in issue.

If a stock has turnover of 500K shares per day, but there is 3m stock on loan, it represents 6 days volume.

If a stock has turnover of 500m shares per day, but there is 500m stock on loan, it represents only 1 day volume.

I guess from Noble's statement of "we will appraise from late 2013 if Scotia has oil" means that the new drill ship they are taking for 3 years could well be redirected to the Falklands if Scotia strikes oil, if not it goes East Med ? Certainly an option for them now, and for sure if Scotia strikes oil then it becomes top priority for Noble owing to the massive upside potential.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/noble-energy-announces-agreement-build-115400586.html


HOUSTON, Sept. 27, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- Noble Energy, Inc. (NBL) today announced that it has entered into a 36 month contract with a subsidiary of Atwood Oceanics Inc. (ATW) for a new build drillship to support its global new ventures efforts in deepwater exploration and development. The agreement demonstrates the Company's commitment to global offshore exploration.

The drillship Atwood Advantage is currently under construction by Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co., Ltd. in South Korea. Delivery is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2013 when the rate of $584,000 per day will be initiated. The dual BOP stacks, enhanced offline capabilities, 12,000 feet water depth/40,000 feet drill depth ratings and the increased mobility will add flexibility to Noble Energy's global exploration program. ................

GKP
(a) because i have already held them for some time but am not adding further after my last little foray at about 201

(b) because my running loss there is small, so no harm being done

(c) because GKP represents only a small % of my portfolio

(d) because GKP has already found oil, and seemingly an awful lot of it too

(e) because the political situation in iraq looks to be settling down, which can only be good news for the whole region


that seems to be a few good reasons to me

==================

fogl shorting

you fail dismally to answer the question i raised
try again - yours is like the typical schoolboy exam error of answering the question he would have liked to have been asked, rather than what actuallywas.

The 3 year contract for the Atwood Advantage drillship just announced end Sept, and then yesterdays plans showing non-stop appraisal and exploratory drilling for 3 years in the Falklands, if Scotia strikes oil.... sort of ties in does it not......

while i accept that seismic and similar are excellent tools, they assuredly do not guarantee the result sought - as is shown all too often

i may have missed something (would not surprise me), but even you seem to be saying that nothing meaningful is expected for another year - hence my own comment and indeed the market's reaction, for the share languishes in the sargasso sea (oh all right - the doldrums then) at +/-68

Seems Noble are convinced there is oil to be had. The following is an extract from Friday's Telegraph:
"..explorers around the Falklands were having a good day, spurred higher by Noble Energy which said there may be 12 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the area".
I don't know on what they have based this prediction but it could indicate encouraging shows with current drilling.

grevis, 12 billion is only in the top few leads...... there are over 20 other leads, including the massive "Diomedea" prospect which by itself is over 5 billion recoverable barrels potential.

Imagine if they do find oil at Scotia! and how much it'l de-risk a large area and the Diomedea location..And with over 20 leads it could be seriously mega.. But of course you'd be talking a few years down the line for all the prospects to be evaluated..

Rumours might start to flow here soon, as I presume drilling is on going and we are getting closer and closer to perhaps first signs of hydrocarbons....

EU Short selling restrictions in from 1st Nov.

This is why you see "stock on loan" figures going up October - all the "naked short" positions must now be covered with borrowed stock, so lots of borrowing going on to cover positions now.

Shorts must be declared to the market at 0.5% level, and every 0.1% increase thereafter they must declare again to the market - so there will be transparency now on who is short.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1a5a57c4-1495-11e2-aa93-00144feabdc0.html

Warning on EU short-selling restrictions

By Vanessa Kortekaas and Brooke Masters

EU restrictions on short selling, due to take effect next month, threaten to reduce liquidity in UK small-cap stocks and prevent small businesses from raising capital, market participants have warned.

The regulations, which come into force on November 1, are intended to address concerns that short selling – betting that shares will fall in price, by selling borrowed holdings and then buying them back cheaply – exacerbates market downturns.

Under the rules, investors will have to disclose their short positions and settle their short trades in four days – rather than 30 days as currently required – with large fines for failing to settle on time.

However, brokers have expressed concerns that the shorter settlement time will discourage market makers from taking positions in small- and medium- sized enterprises.

“This is a regulation that has gone wrong,” said John Barrass, deputy chief executive of the Association of Private Client Investment Managers and Stockbrokers (Apcims). “We believe that there may be quite damaging consequences [of the regulation] if those firms which make a market in these stocks find it not worthwhile doing so in future,” Mr Barrass added.

Winterflood, Close Brothers’ market maker for UK retail brokers, said that while it supported more transparency on short selling, the regulation has “created unintended consequences” for the small-cap end of the UK market, by placing an economic burden on the market makers that provide liquidity to it.

Julian Palfreyman, Winterflood’s chief executive, said the impact on liquidity could affect small- and medium- sized enterprises by making it harder for them to tap the equity market as a source of finance.

Market participants have been in discussions with the Financial Services Authority and LCH.Clearnet, the Anglo-French clearing house, over the implementation of the rules.

A person familiar with the matter said there had been intense debate in recent weeks about how the rules could be applied in the UK without negatively affecting liquidity in the market.

One possibility is a reduction in the fines for settlement after four days, which would effectively increase the settlement periods for UK stocks.

“People didn’t really cotton on or understand what the impact of [the regulation] was going to be,” the person said.

However, small changes to how the rules are applied in the UK may not be sufficient for all market makers.

“If the improvement isn’t enough to satisfy the market makers then they will pull out of making markets in particular stocks,” said another person close to the discussions.

.

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-11-713_en.htm

..................How does the Regulation enhance the transparency of short selling?

Transparency is key in ensuring the efficient functioning and monitoring of financial markets. So the Regulation provides for several measures to enhance transparency in short selling for shares and government debt.

- for shares:

For EU shares the provisions to enhance transparency are largely based on the two tier model recommended by CESR (the Committee of European Securities Regulators, the predecessor of ESMA) in its report in March 2010. At a lower threshold (0.2% of the issued share capital) notification of a short position will be made only to the regulator and at a higher threshold (0.5%) short positions will be disclosed to the market. Notification to regulators will enable them to monitor and, if necessary, investigate short selling that may pose systemic risks or be abusive. Publication of information to the market will provide useful information to other market users and act as a disincentive to aggressive short selling strategies.

The Regulation also calls for consideration to be given by the Commission, in the context of the revision of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID), to whether inclusion by investment firms of information about short sales in transaction reports to competent authorities would provide useful supplementary information to enable competent authorities to monitor levels of short selling..............